14/7/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Monash Stakes day

A strong nine event meeting has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday where it is Sir John Monash Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eleven metres for the entire circuit.

7 Ronan’s Rock (Bet Now: $3.30) on top. The Hayes/Dabernig team are flying at the moment with their youngsters and they are producing this first starter, a well bred Fastnet Rock colt who has looked quite sharp in recent jump outs at Flemington, showing good ability, similar to that of stablemate Our Tony Nicconi, who bolted up here a fortnight back. Williams on too…he’s in okay form at the moment.

1 Humma Humma (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Denman filly for John McArdle who was a notable drifter in betting when resuming last Wednesday at Sandown but Jamie Mott rode the girl with such confidence and she put them quite quickly before getting the staggers late, still having a length to spare. Should come right on from that and I don’t think 1200m will be an issue.

2 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $11.00) is the very interesting runner. Adam Trinder trains this filly in Tassie and she hasn’t raced since putting together a fab first prep during the Summer Carnival over there, including a win in the Elwick being pipped late in the Gold Sovereign. Wasn’t asked a great deal in a Devonport Synthetic trial, but 1200m first up tells me she’s wound up to go close.

6 Atlantica (Bet Now: $8.50) shouldn’t be underestimated. Jim Smith trains this filly at Morphettville and she is putting together a pretty good record back home. Gave them a caning a fortnight back at this trip at Morphettville, leading throughout under Alfred Chan. She’ll be on speed again and a hard 1200m is no issue for her.

7 Magnesium Rose (Bet Now: $4.60) is a talented filly for the Matty Lindsay team who got a mile out of her ground last time out at Sandown but worked home with real purpose I thought when third to Layel against the soft tempo. Got a bad racing pattern, but if the breaks go her way, she’s right in the mix.

12 Pretty Bella (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Saab Hassan trained filly who didn’t look 100% on the Geelong Synthetic when resuming and was probably not suited at the trip but her class and Olly lifted her late to get the maiden win out of the way. Form in the first prep was quite good and her jump outs leading up to the resumption really caught the eye.

Have to stick with 14 Mantastic (Bet Now: $2.50). Been with him in both Australian runs, really catching the eye first up at Flemington before racing over the mile here where he was hailed as the winner but the bob of the head went the way of stablemate Haripour. Third up, he looks ready to win and I’m confident he can get the job done.

5 Another Coldie (Bet Now: $4.40) should be respected for mine. He comes through the David Bourke Plate at Flemington three weeks ago where he sat back and wide but launched and looked the winner for a few strides but was no match late for the stablemate Silentz. Little query at 1700m, but he’s finding form now and when he does, he generally holds it.

11 Rib Eye (Bet Now: $12.00) will love the rise to 1700m. He was 1600-1400 last time out here and you could make a case that he should have won, but just had no luck when trying to build the revs behind Wenner. He’ll eat up the 1700m here and gets really good weight relief so he has to be considered as a winning chance.

Normal luck and 16 Demolition (Bet Now: $3.70) wins. It was just a horror show if you were on him at the Moonee Valley midweeks. Just flopped out the back and Williams just couldn’t get clear air until it was all over and he was a good thing beaten behind Nordic Empire. I think the 1400m will be ideal…just give him clear air please.

7 The Avenger (Bet Now: $4.40) looks the key and perhaps only threat to Demolition. Comes back to Melbourne after kicking off the prep with three Sydney runs, winning first up before being not far away at his next two. He is a track/distance winner from last prep and he looks to get a really good run just off the speed.

Interesting to see what 9 Wayanka (Bet Now: $17.00) does here. He had done bugger all this prep prior to racing at this track/distance a fortnight back where he loomed large and for a moment looked the winner but just petered on the run when close up behind Wenner. He’s found a little bit of positive form. Can he go on with it?

3 Rillito (Bet Now: $1.85) looks the winner. James Cummings has this mare going really well at the moment. Narrow second to Showpero first up at the Valley before racing at this track/distance where she looked a good thing on paper and was ridden accordingly by Williams, getting her good cover, presenting at the right time and putting them away with ease. Should do something similar.

1 Life On The Wire (Bet Now: $7.50) is an absolute ripping mare for Scott Brunton and she has shown in the past she can be more than competitive in Melbourne. Hasn’t raced since the Sunline on William Reid night where she attempted to lead all the way but raced like a tired horse behind Spanish Reef. Been given a good break and her Hobart trial win a couple of weeks back was outstanding.

12 Mariquita (Bet Now: $34.00) interests me here. Formerly trained in NSW but is now with Shane Nicholls. Her form in Sydney probably isn’t strong enough to be considered a winning chance here, but she has jumped out well and gets run of the race stuff from gate one provided she takes advantage of the draw.

Hard to get away from 1 Masculino (Bet Now: $2.90). He’s hard fit, in form and can carry weight. He gave them a spanking at this track/distance two weeks ago, admittedly beating a much easier field but he did it very well. He probably lacks the brilliance of some of these, but he has ticked the 2000m Caulfield box, will be out of trouble on pace and has change up speed.

It was a bit of an ugly watch if you were on 3 Mount Kilcoy (Bet Now: $2.90) last Saturday at Flemington in the Silver Bowl Final. Yendall just rode the horse too cute and he left his run far too late when a narrow second to Mr Money Bags. 2000m looks perfect for him and ability wise, he’s the best horse…seven day back up and apprentice on first try at the trip…I wouldn’t want to be taking anything silly short.

I like 5 Legale (Bet Now: $8.50) as a horse. Too good for them to break the maiden two back at Ballarat before racing over 1800m at Sandown against the older horses last Wednesday where he took a little while to wind up but you had to like his last 150m where he kept finding the line and was strong in doing so. 2000m no issue and has upside.

Happy to be with 2 Crystal Dreamer (Bet Now: $5.00) for the Ellerton/Zahra team. This bloke had a fab Spring/Summer, winning a couple of races and placing on several other occasions. He is a bomb when produced fresh and loves racing at Caulfield. Recent jump out says he’s ready to go and looks to map ideally.

1 Voodoo Lad (Bet Now: $4.20) is another fascinating runner. He’s got the Group l talent there, but this time in in two runs, in the Goodwood and Stradbroke, he has done little to nothing behind Santa Ana Lane. This is a welcomed drop in grade and depth, and the WFA scale suits him very well…where he is at mentally?

5 Inn Keeper (Bet Now: $7.50) is the fascinating runner. This bloke has been a revelation in recent times, culminating with an outstanding and tough on speed win in the Golden Topaz during the Swan Hill Carnival. That was over a month ago, so fitness levels are unknown, but he does have residual fitness from a hard campaign. Just needs to tick the WFA box.

9 Street Sheik (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy three year old for the Patrick Payne team who contested a heat of the Silver Bowl at Swan Hill when third to Poseidon’s Pool on a bog before going to the Al Passem race and just missing out after getting an inside split and dashing. Firm tracks are his go so with luck in running here, he should take some beating.

1 Summer Sham (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Danny O’Brien trained filly who looked sharp at the jump outs prior to resuming over 1100m here a fortnight back where she was an alarming drifter, starting near $8 after opening around $4 and she didn’t get the best of luck in the straight behind Zarpoya in a real bunched finish. Late splits were nothing flash, but happy to give her another look.

2 Snitzepeg (Bet Now: $7.00) is a sleeper for mine. He comes through the Al Passem race and I thought his effort was pretty good in defeat. He just got too far back and was nearer the inside but his finale was more than satisfactory. Reckon he’s looking for the mile now, but the talent and class is there to be competitive.

I think 13 Call Me Handsome (Bet Now: $6.50) is a great bet here. Looked very sharp at the Cranbourne jump outs prior to resuming here a fortnight back over 1200m where he was heavily backed and if you were on, like me, it was tough watching. Three and four wide throughout and he did an enormous job to run second to Ashlor. Better luck here and he’ll take some beating.

12 Malaise (Bet Now: $5.00) is ticking over very well and a win is near. Williams gave him every chance at this track/distance two weeks ago from the inside gate and he loomed large to get the win but the well backed Wenner fought very hard on speed and proved too good. Third up now, no excuses for this horse IMO.

This race evolves around 3 Theanswermyfriend (Bet Now: $4.80) and what Weir has done with him. If he’s weaved his magic wand like he has with Nature Strip, this horse will be too good. He showed in the Spring he can be Group l competitive but this prep under Henry Dwyer, he did nothing. Now with Weir and if he has got the horse anywhere near right, he’ll be too good. Happy to watch, but he goes in everything.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 16 Demolition

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 3 Rillito

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 6 Atlantica

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 8, 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Four: 1, 3, 10, 12, 13

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful