15/1/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Racing returns to Moonee Valley under the lights this Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

I’m a bit surprised that 7 Safeeya (Bet Now: $2.60) isn’t favourite and I would think she will start favourite when the gates open. She has been excellent in two runs back from a break, resuming with a spank job in a Cranbourne maiden before going to Caulfield when a closing third to stablemate and potential star, Ayrton. That’s the A1 form for this, and should she hold the back of likely leader Yukon, confident she’ll finish over the top of him.

Not saying that 1 Yukon (Bet Now: $2.10) isn’t a nice horse because he is, but he’s just too short at around $2.10. Given every chance at Sandown last Wednesday but perhaps Williams went too slow because when pressure was applied, there was no turn of foot, but he stayed on and fought hard to go down narrowly to War Critic. Leads these for fun and the claim helps, plus a potentially soft lead.

The blinkers and firmer footing could spark improvement for 4 I Am A Hit (Bet Now: $19.00). Nick Ryan trained gelding that was solid two back at Sale behind Night Passage before racing there again, this time on a bottomless track, and he just couldn’t pick his feet up. Better suited here and can run a cheeky race at a price.

From a price perspective, have to be with 6 Senor Toba (Bet Now: $8.50). Just think he’s the wrong odds at nearly double figures. Chris Waller trained grey that was well supported on debut at Sale and the run was very good on a testing track. Lost a fair bit of ground and momentum in getting to the outside fence, but his finale was eye catching. He’ll eat up the mile and if he can sit closer in the run, I think he’ll take a power of beating.

1 Fighter (Bet Now: $2.35) has talent under the hood, but for me, just not a betting option at the price. He ran in a Gawler (Metro) maiden last time out and had a good battle with Montepulciano, with that horse just winning in a great finish. That horse has good form around him so Fighter does command respect. I just can’t dive in at $2.30.

10 My Squeeze Louise (Bet Now: $7.00) is another that looks value. Has the Pagan/King combo and is lightly raced with upside. Resumed at Geelong on Boxing Day where he did a fair bit of work to get near the speed and fought on very well in defeat when third. That race has produced four winners, so that reads well and is suited up to the mile.

This is a weak maiden for a city meeting. I think that is the case anyway, hence why I’m going to have a throw at the stumps with the rank outsider in early betting, 2 Astronomicelle (Bet Now: $27.00). Jumpouts were nothing flash hence why she was $101 on debut at Yarra Valley. Despite the SP, I thought she ran well in restricted room. Not sure the Valley will suit her, but this is a thin race, she’s got upside…worth something small at the big odds.

10 Longduan (Bet Now: $6.00) has the early toe to take care of the wide gate, get on speed and prove hard to catch. Tried to do that at Caulfield last time out and was outclassed but far from disgraced in defeat behind Zoushine. Any hint of a pattern suiting those on speed and she’s the one to beat.

4 Dicanto (Bet Now: $9.00) has had early interest and not really surprised that has been the case. Nigel Blackiston trained filly that was specked at a price when debuting on a bottomless track at Geelong and worked home okay late in the piece without threatening. Gets onto a firmer track and should be strong at the end.

11 Beachgoer (Bet Now: $10.00) can be hit and miss but he’ll have no issue with the 3000m from what I’ve seen and does appear to be good value in an open race. Last run came on Saturday over 2600m at Werribee. As he usually does, he hits a flat spot and looked to be going nowhere, but picked up and surged late when second to the heavily backed Wadeema’s Girl. Gets good weight relief, hard fit and is worth a bet each way at the odds.

Bit of #SF here in the shape of the Peter Robl trained gelding 5 Power Of Attorney (Bet Now: $3.60). He comes into this off the back of a win at Saturday metro level, winning on the Kenso track at Randwick just under two weeks ago. Overall, it wasn’t a strong race, but he was strongest late. Racing as if 3000m will be okay and gets Olly to steer.

Including 3 Alienated (Bet Now: $20.00) because he just has to be respected when he races at the 3000m here. Prepped up for this with a run over 3000m at Cranbourne last Friday night where he didn’t really appreciate the sit/sprint style of race. Better suited here on his fav track and could sneak a first four spot.

Despite being a 70, there is a bit of depth to this line up and there is a few ways you could go. It’s been a long, long time since 9 Queen Anabel (Bet Now: $21.00) has raced in a 70. Have to go back to July 2018 to find that last time, which she won. Her last start at Flemington behind Sword Of Mercy was quite good and the form has been ticked off. If she can get luck from the gate, she’ll be strong at the end.

10 The Mobot (Bet Now: $3.90) has the the good Saturday form around her and has early toe so she commands respect. Resumed at Sandown and just needed the run behind Ididitforlove before going to Caulfield where she was far from disgraced behind Hidden Legend. Ididitforlove won at Flemington on Saturday so that reads well for this.

1100m back to 955m I don’t like for 14 Gold Spark (Bet Now: $6.50) but Nick Ryan has him flying. Produced very good late splits when resuming at this track/distance before stepping up to 1100m when heavily backed and finishing right over the top. He’ll need plenty of luck but has the talent to blouse these.

Hoping Jamie Mott gives 2 Paddy Mac (Bet Now: $2.30) a dig in the ribs and slides forward because I think if he does, he wins the race. Ran last Thursday at Geelong and if you were on, it was a bit of an ugly watch in the straight. Probing for a run nearer the inside but things just didn’t eventuate when Mott wanted it to and he was unlucky not to win. Finds clear air from the outside, rolls forward and proves hard to beat.

6 Dance Date (Bet Now: $5.50) has the inside gate to use and I think Olly will be positive in looking to hold a forward spot. Resumed with a close up second to Part Time Lover before going to Sandown again where she was a bit tardy away and that took her away her best winning chance I felt. If she jumps clean and can settle handy, she’ll run a good race.

1 Into Rio (Bet Now: $16.00) is third up now and getting to a more ideal trip for the in form Ellerton/Zahra camp. Was second up over the mile at Flemington on New Years Day and worked home okay without threatening behind Fundraiser in what was a fast run race so up to 2040m I like and the claim helps.

Going to have a 1×3 bet here on 3 Revlis (Bet Now: $17.00) for the Paul Preusker team. He was seriously well specked at a price when racing over the mile at Flemington on New Years Day. Just got a bit too far back in a fast run race and had to spend a lot of petrol tickets to stay within range. He’s going well I feel and this race is much weaker.

2 Glassey Miss (Bet Now: $3.00) looks to have returned in good order for Symon Wilde. Resumed on her home track at Warrnambool where Thornton gave her a peach steer just off the speed before presenting her with clear air on the turn and she showed good change up speed to dash away and score.

The best version of 10 Soaring Eagle (Bet Now: $11.00) is certainly capable. This mare has raced at Sandown in both runs back from a spell. Latest came a few weeks ago when wide no cover on speed and just forget she went around. She’s better than that and does get Olly taking over. Just needs luck from the draw.

13 Real Gun (Bet Now: $2.45) looks the one to beat but is first emergency and at the time of writing up this preview, there were no scratchings. He was a sharp all the way winner over 1200m at Caulfield last time out in a maiden, running good time relative to the meeting and did it from the front. Think he’s the one. Just needs to gain a start.

12 Jay Gatsby (Bet Now: $6.50) is a son of Brazen Beau for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes. He hasn’t raced since September 5 over 1500m here when a closing third to Flash Flood in a good effort. Liked a recent jumpout and will be strong late if they overdo it in front. Market watch.

10 Johnny Whitesox (Bet Now: $46.00) is a big watch here. Had a couple of runs at Darwin for Stephen Brown and was just fair, but since being back in Victoria, he has had a couple of jumpouts and to my eye has been very sharp in each trial. Not sure he wins, but he goes in the multiples and quaddie just in case.

BEST BET: Race One Number 7 Safeeya

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Paddy Mac

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 9 Queen Annabel

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 7, 9, 10, 14

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 2, 3, 8, 10

Leg Four: 6, 10, 12, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful