15/11/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Night racing returns to Moonee Valley this Friday night for an eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Gee these races are tough to sort out with confidence so I’ll side with a horse who will be out of trouble on speed, which is 11 Highland Blaze (Bet Now: $20.00), who attempted to lead throughout over 3000m at Mornington last time and gave a strong kick but just lacked change up speed. Up in trip, this will be survival of the fittest and I am sure this guy will keep chipping away.

2 Privileged Son (Bet Now: $5.50) won at the track two back and gives the impression of eating up 3800m. That win at the track two back was over 3000m before going to 2500m at Morphettville where he got too far out of his ground but was okay late. Back up in trip, right camp, he appeals.

12 Wilewink (Bet Now: $41.00) was a game third in this race last year so the trip is no issue for him. He has had two runs back from a freshen up where he has just been looking for more ground, not proving to be a factor. Campbell Rawiller jumps on, getting towards peak fitness and up in trip, I say he only runs well.

Michael Hickmott has rarely got it wrong recently when coming to Melbourne so with that in mind, I am in the corner of 5 Cash (Bet Now: $3.80). He is on debut and he has looked to trial up really well for the debut, the latest piece of work being a trial win at Balaklava and moved well. Todd Pannell makes the trek over and finds a winnable race.

6 Fauci (Bet Now: $5.50) is a well bred colt for Busuttin/Young that is on debut. He has jumped out well at Cranbourne for start one and we know the stable, especially with a colt, like to get them ready for a first up forward showing. Maps ideally and the depth, as a whole, isn’t deep.

8 Belnera (Bet Now: $16.00) should appreciate firmer footing for Mick Kent. She found a bog when resuming at Pakenham over 1000m and tried hard but just lacked change up speed in the conditions. Maps well, fitter, firmer deck…one for exotics.

5 Vixenette (Bet Now: $4.60) has a tricky gate in the small field but she is the most likely for mine. She ran over the mile at Morphettville three weeks ago where she got back to near last in the run and worked home well enough without threatening behind Obi. Smaller field, she should be within range and be strong at the end.

4 Savvyrocker (Bet Now: $4.60) should appreciate a rise in trip after racing on Bendigo Cup Day. She got off the speed over 1300m and while she was never really a winning threat, she kept finding the line and was solid enough in defeat. Like her up to the mile and this race isn’t deep.

3 Kaluakoi (Bet Now: $8.00) is in winning form and has a good racing style. He ran over the mile at Ballarat last time in a maiden where he got front end control, leading throughout and was much too good in an impressive performance. If he finds the front and gets a cheap sectional, he takes running down.

7 Served Cold (Bet Now: $8.00) for me in an open contest. This mare resumed on Bendigo Cup Day where the race shape and track pattern was against her. She didn’t help herself either by laying in under pressure so forgive and forget the run behind Notabadbuy. Better set up here and with good upside, I think she can bounce back.

6 Autumn Storm (Bet Now: $4.50) is on the quick back up for Griffiths/De Kock after racing at Flemington on Oaks Day where he pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial, getting badly held up and had plenty to offer to my eye behind Alma Rise. If the breaks go his way here, he can take this out.

3 Rise To It (Bet Now: $5.00) will jump on the bunny and run a positive race. He ran over this track/distance last time out when doing work to land on speed and that early burn just told on him late in the piece behind Morryl Moral. If he gets a better run in transit this time around, he takes beating.

9 Under And Over (Bet Now: $3.30) is the straight bat play. Team McEvoy trained mare that resumed on Geelong Cup Day where she didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight but was good late in the piece behind Romani Ite Domum. Like her up to 1200m, good upside and strikes a winnable race.

6 Fury (Bet Now: $6.50) is a key chance for Team Hawkes. This guy resumed over 1250m on the Kenso when near the speed and he tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through behind the very much in form Spanish Fox. Better for the run and with a good racing style, he commands respect.

8 Schroder’s Mistake (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Clarken/O’Shea trained gelding that let down like a nice horse to win on debut over 1200m at Morphettville, leading throughout and he was trucking before being clicked up and away he went to win and win well. He’ll press forward again and take running down once again.

10 Split Decision (Bet Now: $13.00) is the each way bet for me. Matty Smith has this mare going really well at present, the latest run being over 955m here and I thought she was slaughtered by Hefel, getting held up at times before getting clear and finding the line well enough when third. Big jockey upgrade and maps perfect.

3 Wakanjeja (Bet Now: $7.00) is capable. This mare resumed over 1000m at The Valley where the scamper didn’t suit her, as well as the tight track, so I want to be forgiving. Bigger track, fitter, more gentle tempo, she’s dangerous for sure as a key winning prospect.

8 Geminga (Bet Now: $12.00) is an SA raider that should be around the mark. That was the case over 1050m at Morphettville last time when back off the speed before being presented clear air and found the line nicely in defeat behind Winning Revolution. Not a strong race this, so I say she’s in with a shout.

8 Subsix (Bet Now: $5.50) is in from for Kennewell/Yeomans and rates highly off his win at Sale where he got better as the race went on and was strong to the line in winning. There is quality to this line up, but he’s a short course specialist and rates highly as one of the leading contenders.

1 Port Albert (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Nick Ryan, having not raced since Moonee Valley Cup Night when finishing best to win over 955m, driving hard late. Good record at the track and off the last start win, he appeals.

6 Bold Print (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Rachael Cunningham trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Sep 4 at Sandown when midfield and far from disgraced in a hot race won by subsequent Stakes winner Isthmus. Has jumped out well for the return so watch the market.

If the breaks go the way of 10 Inexorable (Bet Now: $2.90), I think good luck beating him. He ran over 1500m here two weeks ago and he should have bolted in but just got badly held up in behind tired horses when bolting but only got clear when the race was over. Jockey upgrade and with clear air, I think he’s too good. Keen.

5 Capulet (Bet Now: $8.00) is racing well for Team McEvoy and commands some level of respect off a fourth over 1500m at Morphettville when near the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite finish the job. Tricky gate, but should press forward and run her usual honest race.

7 Jaz Tycoon (Bet Now: $23.00) comes back to the mile after racing over 2000m in the St Arnaud Cup last time out when outclassed on paper and was held late but he didn’t disgrace himself in defeat I thought behind Pittsburgh Pirate. Not sure he wins but a first four threat.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Inexorable

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Cash

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Split Decision

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 6, 8, 9

Leg Two: 3, 5, 8, 10, 11

Leg Three: 1, 6, 8, 10

Leg Four: 10

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