15/5/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Roma Cup day

Nine races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday where it is Roma Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Pike jumping on 2 Dew West (Bet Now: $7.00) gives her one last chance for me. He rode her fresh and loomed nearer the inside but condition just gave out. Two runs since have been plain but I do think Pike rides her better than most and this is such a thin race with little to no depth.

7 Playing Red (Bet Now: $2.70) is an Adam Durrant trained mare that resumed at this track/distance where she got back to near last in the run and worked home strongly late when third to Ginger Knight. I think if she’s within range on the turn, she will take some beating.

3 The Singing Tiger (Bet Now: $9.50) should appreciate firmer footing. She resumed on a very testing track at Albany where she struggled on the surface and didn’t really fire a shot. Her best is good enough and noteworthy that stable does find Paul Harvey to take the ride.

I think the rise to 1400m should be ideal for 6 Buzzoom (Bet Now: $2.35). Very sharp debut winner over 1200m before stepping back to 1100m. Just found that trip a bit sharp but was good late. Off the debut, she wanted further, and now she gets it here. She’s the one to beat.

2 Rommel’s Command (Bet Now: $7.50) has the 1400m run under the belt and that should hold him in good stead for this. He led throughout to win at Northam and when he was there to be beaten, he found when required and was too good. Harder here, but he will give a sight from on speed.

7 Crowned Princess (Bet Now: $101.00) has shown glimpses of talent throughout her career. Just hasn’t quite gone on with it and put it all together. But I do think 1400m will suit her and one day she will put it all together so I’d include her in wider exotics because the confidence of her winning isn’t there, but a sneaky first four prospect is within reach.

I think 10 Wednesday (Bet Now: $11.00) can run a decent race here at hopefully a price. Was good late here two back behind Glasgow Girl. Then went to Albany and worked home strongly late when second. Three back placed behind Pletto, a form line which clearly reads well for this.

9 Billy Ray (Bet Now: $3.30) had been bursting to win a race for some time but just kept finding ways to get beat. That all changed two weeks ago. Parnham rode the peach race and the horse was able to surge hard late to win. Now he has won a race, he can go on with it.

4 Treasured Crown (Bet Now: $14.00) is a staying prospect for Adam Durrant that resumes. Hasn’t raced since January 16 here where he was at the end of his prep and looking for the paddock. He might need a couple of runs before we see his best, but I’d watch the market and see what it does.

Bludger of a race this. I’ll go with 7 War God (Bet Now: $10.00) but not much confidence. He ran over 1500m here last Saturday when wide with cover and though never really a winning threat, I liked the way he finished his race off when third to stablemate, Bruce Almighty. Fitter and up in trip, gate one, he should get every chance.

2 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $4.00) broke a very long run of outs when winning here a fortnight ago. CJP gave him a lovely ride from just off the speed, got the inside split and with a 2.5kg weight pull on Watch Me Dance, he was able to get the win. The 4.5kg weight rise is a concern but now he has a win on the board, he could well go on with it.

4 Adornment (Bet Now: $8.50) can be an improver at odds. This mare should be forgiven for her down the track effort behind Not To Be Mist a fortnight back. Led and didn’t fire a shot late, finishing down the track late. Pulled up slow to recover, so there were excuses. Pike back on, she can improve.

8 Graceful Girl (Bet Now: $2.70) looks a really good prospect for Team Williams and I think she can resume with a win. Had a four run prep in the Summer to start her career, winning her last two, including a dominant win here. Trialled well to get ready and should get a lovely run from the draw. Hard to beat.

7 Mercanto (Bet Now: $11.00) has a decent engine under the hood and can certainly give this a shake. Ran over 1100m here last time out and worked home strongly from off the speed when second to Ginger Knight. This is a steep rise in class/depth but he has the talent to measure up I’d suggest.

2 Queen Brown (Bet Now: $7.00) has class and is certainly in the mix I’d suggest. Resumed here two weeks ago where the market didn’t want a bad of her late, suggesting she would need the run, and that’s how it panned out, but she was solid late. Fitter, she can run a much improved race.

4 Panzdown (Bet Now: $3.60) looks a smart three year old for Simon Miller and confident he can measure up despite being on a seven day back up. It was a strong win last Saturday after getting back in the run, but the ride from Carbery was a peach, sticking towards the inside, saving the ground and getting the win. If he can hold up from the inside draw, he’ll take beating.

Think this run will be a good guide as to where 6 This’ll Testya (Bet Now: $5.50) is at. After she won her first starts back in late 2019, she was being talked up as a potential Everest horse and Adam Durrant said she was on track to be the horse he has trained. The wheels have fallen off since but she gets Pike back on for the first time since start three, so keen to see how she goes.

2 Long Beach (Bet Now: $6.00) is a beauty for Adam Durrant that resumes. Hasn’t raced since December 5 over 1100m here when landing in a plum spot from the draw and loomed large to win. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when second to speed demon Ziebell. If he’s within range on the turn, he’s good enough.

The safe option looks to be 1 Come Right Back (Bet Now: $4.00). Thought it was a peach steer from Ramoly to get him home here two weeks ago. Led early before opting for cover. Had to wait for the run to appear but once it did, he was strong late and got the job done. See no reason why he can’t win again.

2 Final Chill (Bet Now: $8.50) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday in the Eurythmic in a race that had depth to it. Just had too much to do from last in the run behind the flying Marocchino. This looks more his level and he recently won on an eight day back up so racing in a week should be no issue.

7 Secret Pearl (Bet Now: $4.50) is bursting to win a race. Looked like it would come here a fortnight back where she loomed out wide with momentum, but she couldn’t peg back Come Right Back, who got the split nearer the inside and was too good late, just. Racing well and gets a significant jockey upgrade.

15 Flirtini (Bet Now: $6.00) for me. Quality mare for Simon Miller that was heavily supported fresh in the Northam Stakes. Things just didn’t go to plan and considering the winner has run sub 33 last 600m to win, Flirtini was next to no chance. More genuine tempo this time around, she can bounce back.

No betting if 3 Elite Street (Bet Now: $4.00) brings his Winterbottom form. It was a forgetful prep in Melbourne for him. Good on them for having a crack, but he just didn’t measure up at all. This looks his level and if you can forgive/forget the Melbourne prep and go off what he did late last year, he’s hard to beat.

8 Free Trade (Bet Now: $41.00) deserves another chance I feel. Resumed in the Northam Stakes where he was kept pretty safe in betting. He had a suck run behind the speed and battled I thought in a plain finale. He has such a good track/distance record and gets the run of the race from the draw.

Tricky race this with a host of winning chances. I think 9 Special Choice (Bet Now: $9.00) can resume a winner. Talented mare for Adam Durrant that resumes, having not raced since January 2 when the market didn’t want her late and it was spot on. Had the suck run behind the speed and failed to fire a shot when running last in a field of nine behind Dance Music. Good fresh record, trialled well to get ready and Pike chooses her.

1 Nerodio (Bet Now: $2.70) is flying at the moment and looks ready to win third up from a break. Second up here two weeks ago when off the speed and chasing strongly when second to the very much in form Miss Conteki. The depth here, I think, isn’t as strong, and back up to 1200m I do like.

If this becomes a testing 1200m, then I think 8 State Attorney (Bet Now: $19.00) is a key threat given he has the 1400m run under the belt last start, which came here two weeks back. He tried hard but couldn’t quite get there when second to Staralign. Parnham takes over, hard fit and now has positive form.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 8 Graceful Girl

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Wednesday

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 9 Special Choice

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 8, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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