16/1/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Kensington Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

Kensington Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Kensington Stakes

I’ve got a bit of time for 7 Tiny (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). James Cummings trained filly that was an impressive maiden winner fresh on the Kenso track before being freshened up. Ran on that track again two weeks ago when wide no cover for the trip yet battled away really well when third to Never Talk. With improvement to come, she’ll take some beating.

Class will carry 2 Parlophone (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) a long way here. Resumes for the Price/Kent team and given she’s a Stakes winner from her 2YO season, she’s pretty well in here. Was touted as a potential Coolmore Stud contender but after a couple of below par runs in lead ups, she was spelled, and actually last start was behind the eventual Coolmore Stud winner September Run. Liked her recent Caulfield jumpout and does handle the straight course.

1 Pioneer River (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) has been in work a fair while but continues to race very well. Four weeks between runs since racing down the straight here over 1200m where he was chasing a good speed and worked home hard, just missing out on picking up Written Miss. Ratings out of that race were good and is a leading contender.

The Griffiths/De Kock camp have 4 Hasseltoff (Bet Now: $2.15 TOP ODDS) absolutely flying this time in. His win here on New Years Day was electric. Really sharp change up speed was produced when Jamie Kah asked him to go and he exploded, putting a gap on them and safely holding a margin. Hard to beat here despite creeping up in the relative weights.

3 Saccharo (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up for Archie Alexander after racing at this track/distance last Saturday. Big effort from him to win the race given he was wide no cover for the trip but he had too much class for the 64 field and was strong late in winning. Gets in well at the weights for this 70 and now he has a win, could well go on with it.

9 Packer’s Bond (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) has a decent engine under the hood. Decent enough to win second up in town? Not sure, but I’m including him. Resumed in a Federal at Canberra over 1400m where the late market flucs suggested he would need the run, and would find the 1400m a bit sharp. That is how it panned out, but he closed off very strongly. He wants further than the mile, but has talent.

2 Causeway Girl (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) was beaten a lip in the Kensington Stakes last year and now finds herself in a 78 race 12 months on. Ran over 1100m at Caulfield two weeks ago and looked home when the button was pressed, but she was bloused late by a very much in form Sword Of Mercy. That reads well for this.

4 Absolute Flirt (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) is a talented mare for Danny O’Brien that resumes. Even though she hasn’t won here, she does have a liking for the straight course with three runner up efforts from four outings. Hasn’t raced since May 30 at Caulfield when close up behind another handy mare in Broadwayandfourth. Liked a recent jumpout and can sprint well fresh.

7 Modear (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. Patty Payne trained mare that produced really good change up speed to win fresh at Sandown before going here on New Years Day where it was a real sit/sprint and she would have had to run under 33 for her last 600m to win. Be forgiving of that and give her another chance here.

Like 4 Swift Sure (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) here. Price/Kent trained three year old that had a month break prior to racing over 1700m at Warrnambool where I thought Yendall rode a peach race on him. Tracked the speed and heavily backed odds on pop Red Santa before angling wider into clear air and he was strong late in putting them away. Appreciates 2000m you would imagine and has a stack of upside and improvement.

6 Alloway (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) should have no issue with the 2000m. Didn’t beat a great deal when resuming with a win in a Benalla maiden over the mile before going to 1700m at Sale where he found a bottomless track against the older horses and was good in defeat when second to Plymouth Road.

9 Mystique Falcon (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) can run an improved race here at odds. Maher/Eustace trained filly that resumed over 1400m at Flemington where she paraded like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out, finishing down the track behind Zou Dancer. She’s better than that, so she deserves another chance.

At the better odds, going with 1 Kentucky Breeze (Bet Now: $5.50). Levi Kavanagh trained gelding who resumed over 1400m here four weeks and with the big weight, was an eye catcher late from the back behind Vassilator. He’s a two time second up winner and looks so well in at the weights after the claim.

3 Over Exposure (Bet Now: $2.40) is a Team McEvoy trained gelding that is third up here and should just about be at peak fitness. Comes through the Vassilator race mentioned above and also worked home well from off the speed. At the weights, Kentucky Breeze beats him home, but that factor isn’t everything and this guy has added fitness.

2 Hang Man (Bet Now: $9.00) has a decent enough record at Flemington and can run an improved race here. Been given a mini freshen up since finishing down the track in the Werribee Cup behind Wentwood. Prior efforts in town suggested a win was nearby, so while I doubt he wins here, could sneak a first four spot.

4 Mr Money Bags (Bet Now: $6.50) can win again. Was on him at the big odds when he had his first start for Lindsey Smith over 1400m here a few weeks ago and he was impressive in winning. Admittedly the form out of it has been suspect, but relative to the day, the race rated very well. Staying at 1400m no issue, remains down in the weights…hard to beat I suggest.

5 Rule The World (Bet Now: $4.40) is a WaterBott trained four year old that was very well placed by the stable when winning at Caulfield a fortnight back. Willow had him out the back with cover before peeling wider and launching late to finish right over the top and win. Better suited at Flemington IMO and is one of the hardest to beat.

3 Polanco (Bet Now: $13.00) has been up a little while for Shea Eden but is holding his form really well. Down the track two back in the Gold Bullion at Pakenham before going to Flemington when near the speed and fighting on strongly when bloused late by the enigma that is Vassilator. Like him down in the weights and is hard to beat.

8 Sword Of Mercy (Bet Now: $6.00) looks a Stakes winner in waiting and I think she won’t have to wait too much longer because she will win this. Both starts this time in have resulted in a couple of outstanding wins, firstly at this track/distance before going to Caulfield where she was ridden cold yet still proved effective and dashed hard. She’ll measure up to these for sure.

2 Prezado (Bet Now: $4.20) saves his best for the Flemington 1000m and hard fit now, has to command respect. Five weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he looked to be going quite comfortably near the speed and loomed to beat the WA speed demon Fabergino, but she packed too many punches and was too good. Hard to beat.

3 Bons Away (Bet Now: $21.00) is a bludger to follow, but his best is clearly good enough to give this a shake. Had his first run for Wendy Kelly back in the Spring in the McEwen where on face value he was plain behind Bella Vella, but was found to have bled. Two jumpouts to get ready have been sharp and with bleeders when they return, it goes two ways. They either win or run near last.

The ceiling is a long way away for 2 Long Arm (Bet Now: $4.60). Former Irish galloper that made his Australian debut over the mile here a few weeks ago in what was a fast run race and what impressed me is the way she ran through the pain barrier and kept finding under pressure. The rise to 2000m will be ideal and the form out of that race has been strong.

14 Coolth (Bet Now: $5.00) is racing like he wants this kind of trip and he gets it, so reckon this is just about D-Day for him. Just needed the run fresh at the Valley before going to Flemington where the race shape was totally against him, but liked the way he finished off in a race where they really zipped home. He’s got the talent. Now just needs to showcase it.

10 Takumi (Bet Now: $6.00) looks a working progress for Aaron Purcell and I think he can win again. Narrow second to Excelsior Star two back at the Valley before going to 2000m at Caulfield where he sat off a reasonable speed before peeling wider and finishing right over the top to get the job done. He can keep winning.

If you were on 4 Terbium (Bet Now: $3.80) two weeks ago, don’t drop off here. Resumed with a spank job of his rivals at Gawler before going to Caulfield where he was well backed late. Jamie Mott rode for luck nearer the inside and it just didn’t happen for him at the right time. Convinced he’s come back super and can take this out.

3 Mystery Shot (Bet Now: $4.40) is the big query. Unbeaten galloper for Lindsey Smith that is likely being aimed towards the All Star Mile so how forward will he be for this? Does he need to be wound up to beat them? It’s ticks all around for him when it comes to the form he has next to his name, gets in well after the claim and draws right part of the track.

6 Ruban Bleu (Bet Now: $9.50) has a good record down the straight and is a key threat here. Resumed over 1100m at Caulfield where he was back near last in the run and made up a stack of ground to run an eye catching third to Sword Of Mercy. Good second up record and the extra 100m I do like.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Swift Sure

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 7 Tiny

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 2 Causeway Girl

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Three: 2, 10, 11, 14

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 13

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful