16/11/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Thousand Guineas day

Group l racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday, with the Thousand Guineas (1600m) and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) headlining the ten race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Thousand Guineas 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Thousand Guineas

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes

7 Sure (Bet Now: $4.80) is bursting to win. I was keen on his chances on Bendigo Cup Day and he seemed to have every chance but just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Notabadbuy. The rise to 1700m suits and third up from a spell, he should just about be at peak fitness.

4 Notabadbuy (Bet Now: $23.00) will jump on the bunny and take running down after winning on Bendigo Cup Day, leading throughout and gave a strong kick, fending off his rivals to win and win well. Good racing style and with front end control, takes beating.

9 Our Couver (Bet Now: $9.00) is racing well for Jerome Hunter and commands some form of respect after racing at Mornington last time where he tried hard but couldn’t quite reel in Chartres, who was given a 12/10 and was too good. He’s found positive form and I think 1700m is ideal.

16 Tiffany Valentine (Bet Now: $5.00) lacks the class of some of these but gee she is a little trier for Phillip Stokes and looks to have returned in really good order. She resumed on Geelong Cup Day where she got back to near last in the run but worked home with real purpose late when second to Romani Ite Domum. Likely spots them a start again but should be strong late and for mine, is hard to beat.

6 Pantelone (Bet Now: $6.00) is a James Cummings trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since May 4 over this track/distance behind Title Fighter when just off the speed and failed to fire, pulling up lame. Given a good break and has jumped out well.

3 Capo Strada (Bet Now: $23.00) is heading in the right direction for Reece Goodwin. He ran over 1100m on Bendigo Cup Day where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never threatening, he kept finding the line and was good in defeat behind Brazen Lady. If he can be within range, he has the finale to be dangerous.

4 Belle Savoir (Bet Now: $13.00) to resume a winner. Nick Ryan trained mare that is first up, having not raced since August 17 over this track/distance when down the track behind Running By and looked a tired horse. Jumped out well for the return and 1400m fresh, to me, signals intent.

2 Bigolino (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Team Payne trained gelding that resumes. The stable did have a couple nominated for this race but go with the sole rep via this guy, who resumes and although is suited over slightly further, he has trialled really well and can sprint well fresh, so watch the market.

11 Sassy Boom (Bet Now: $6.00) is getting towards last chance territory for me. She jumped out like an an absolute rocket prior to resuming but her three runs back have been fair, the latest on Geelong Cup Day where she had every chance but was quite weak late. Maps perfect and gets J Kah. D-Day.

3 Pisces (Bet Now: $4.80) looks to have a bit on these I feel. He resumed in the Red Anchor on Cox Plate and I think you can make a case to say he wins with clear air but got held up at the wrong times when second to Bittercreek. Fitter and up to 1400m, although the Grand Final is the Sandown Guineas, he does look to have a bit on this lot.

2 Rue De Royale (Bet Now: $13.00) is the key threat. He just found the Caulfield Guineas a bridge too far and tired late to finish down the track behind Private Life. On first look, that Guineas looked crap, but the winner went like a rocket in the Champions Sprint last week, so I think the form is okay and this horse jumped out like a Group l horse last week at Bendigo. Keen to see how he goes.

7 I Am Velvet (Bet Now: $9.50) has talent but she has a few loose screws upstairs and that was the case in The Vanity where she was keen in the run, went to the front and was a tired horse when down the track behind Zeitung. If she brings her best, she’s dangerous.

7 Pharari (Bet Now: $3.40) has been hit and miss when it comes to finding a Stakes race, but I reckon she gets her chance here. She ran on Derby Day down the straight when on speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through and finished down the track behind Isthmus. Back to a bending track, on speed racing style, I say she takes beating.

4 Grinzinger Prince (Bet Now: $13.00) is a beauty from SA for Cody Reardon and has to be respected. He has been strong in two runs back from a spell, the latest coming three weeks ago over 1200m at Morphettville when second to Watchme Win. Back to a fast run 1100m, he’ll get back and charge late, and a win wouldn’t shock at all.

3 Celui (Bet Now: $10.00) will jump on the bunny and take running down with his best. He comes through the McEwen at The Valley when racing over 1200m, was keen in the run and couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Baraqiel. Back to 1100m, lands on speed and his best is more than good enough.

11 Grinzinger Pod (Bet Now: $8.50) commands respect for Danny O’Brien. This girl resumed on Cox Plate Day in the Crockett where she got off the speed and was held up at times before getting clear and found the line with purpose in a good effort behind Certain Rise. Better for the run, she can take this out.

1 Eneeza (Bet Now: $13.00) is nearing D-Day I say for her career. She was a strong 2YO but she doesn’t look to have gone on with it as she has gotten older, with her efforts this time in being quite plain, the latest in the Crockett on Cox Plate Day. If she brings her best, she can beat these and beat them well.

6 Blackberry Bomb (Bet Now: $21.00) deserves a crack at this kind of race for Simon Zahra. She won on Bendigo Cup Day, getting the suck run in transit before angling clear and knuckled down with purpose late to win and win well. Good test here against likely types, but confident she can measure up.

9 Supercilious (Bet Now: $20.00) looks the each way gamble for mine in an open Thousand Guineas. I thought her run on Cup Day was one of the runs of the day in defeat against the pattern, getting back and wide but worked home with real purpose against the pattern. Racing like 1600m suits and with a more economical run in transit, she takes beating at a price.

2 Aeliana (Bet Now: $3.30) has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. Chris Waller trained filly that was arrogant in winning the Carbine Club on Derby Day where she gave them a start and an absolute beating, winning with a leg in the air. Stable won the race last year and they look on track to repeat the dose.

10 Lovelycut (Bet Now: $11.00) is a filly that has an engine under the hood for Reece Goodwin. She ran in The Vanity two weeks back where they rode with intent near the speed and kept on in a pretty good effort behind Zeitung. I think with a more patient steer, she’ll be more effective.

3 Milford (Bet Now: $14.00) saves his best for the track/distance and I think is sneaky flying. He comes through the Sale Cup where he got back and while he was never a winning threat, he kept finding the line and was good in defeat I thought. Racing like 2000m will be ideal, can press forward and take beating.

4 Charterhouse (Bet Now: $6.50) is capable. He comes through The Little Dance where he got back and kept chasing without threatening but was still good in defeat behind stable, the in for St Lawrence. 2000m is the query but he maps perfect and finds a winnable race.

8 New York Hurricane (Bet Now: $4.00) is a beauty for Liam Howley that commands respect off his Kyneton Cup triumph where he had the suck run in behind. Just a matter of getting clear air and once he got it, he dashed and was too good. Good test here, but think he can measure up.

7 Jimmysstar (Bet Now: $3.20) is a ripper for Ciaron Maher. Market really gravitated towards him last time out at Flemington and he tried hard but had no answers late for the finale of stablemate Another Wil. I do think he’s better at Caulfield compared to Another Wil and with a good run in transit, he takes beating.

4 Another Wil (Bet Now: $3.70) is one of the hardest to beat. He won at Flemington a fortnight back, getting a 12/10 by J Kah and in a driving finish, he was too good. He’s a dynamic horse when right, he’s bursting to win a Group l and I think he gets a great chance here.

9 Buffalo River (Bet Now: $41.00) will put himself on speed and is dangerous at a price if this track is playing up/in. He ran in the Moonga, looking to win it for the third time. He was on speed and gave a big kick but just couldn’t quite see it through, nabbed late by Mighty Ulysses. He leads and will run an honest race.

10 She’s Bulletproof (Bet Now: $5.00) has to be given serious respect for Charlotte Littlefield off the back of an arrogant over this trip at The Valley. Did she beat much? No. But, the way she put them away…gee she was impressive and ran time. Destined for Stakes company so keen to see how she goes.

4 Niance (Bet Now: $3.10) looks set for this race and I think the first up win was a bonus, which came at Caulfield, where she got a very cheap run on speed and in a dash to the line, she was too good. Tick over jumpout was strong and she appears to be one of the leading contenders.

3 Infancy (Bet Now: $10.00) has an awful racing pattern but she’s a mare that can rocket late, as seen at Flemington on Derby Day where she got back off the speed and closed with purpose when fifth to Isthmus. 1200m is the query but with the right drag into the race, she’s dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Pisces

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 7 Jimmysstar

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 10 She’s Bulletproof

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 4, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Three: 4, 7

Leg Four: 3, 4, 9, 10, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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