16/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Classic day

Ten races will be run and won at Belmont on Saturday for Belmont Classic Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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I think you have to believe what you saw when it comes to 1 Aztec Ruler (Bet Now: $1.95) and his debut win here two weeks ago. To the eye, it was a massive win to sit back and launch late to beat a sharp 1000m juvenile in Revitup, and the clock agreed, producing some of the best late splits of the meeting. For a first starter to do that tells me he goes very good. Parnham sticks, extra 200m no issue, he is the one to beat.

2 El Patron (Bet Now: $7.00) is a key threat. I think last time they found the key to him: ride with a sit. They gave him cover at the midweeks here last time and he was trucking. Just a matter of getting clear air and once he got it, he showed good change up speed and won impressively. Confident he can measure up.

5 It’s All A Rumour (Bet Now: $10.00) might want 1400m, but I think the resumption was quite encouraging, which came last Wednesday at this track/distance where he got back to near last in the run and worked home strongly behind a couple of handy ones in Vampi At Play and Sentimental Belle, both of which are Saturday class, so that form reads well IMO.

1 I’m Pretty (Bet Now: $4.20) looks really well placed in a race like this. She ran at this track/distance last Wednesday where she was very good from near last in the run, producing good late splits behind Jag The Joker when a close up fourth. If this track can dry out, from the inside gate, I think she’ll only run well.

2 Arnie’s Boy (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing in really good form at the moment for Ashley Maley. Big win from him here two weeks ago, launching late from the back and getting the bob of all bobs to nab them on the peg. Just starting to creep up in the relative weights but hard to knock the way he’s going.

9 Baby Blues (Bet Now: $31.00) is one I could entertain for wider multiples. He ran in the Arnie’s Boy race from two weeks back where she got back to neat last in the run and while she was never a threat, her finale was more than sound. If she can settle closer in the run, she could be dangerous at odds.

3 Savage One (Bet Now: $1.90) looks the one to beat in a race in two IMO. Led throughout two weeks ago over 1400m here, getting control in front and giving nothing else a look in, winning quite comfortably. He does seem more effective at 1400m, but is a capable horse at the mile, hard fit and in form.

2 No Apology (Bet Now: $5.00) is the only threat. He’s on the seven day back up after winning last Saturday at this track/distance, showing great determination late to fend them off and win where he looked like he would get beat, he found and was too good. Harder here, but he’s very genuine, especially when there is give in the track.

6 Fangio (Bet Now: $15.00) isn’t going too bad for Roy Rogers but is crying out for a dry deck. Last couple of runs, she has found tracks with give in it and hasn’t really fired a shot. She’s hard fit now and if this track can dry out, I think you will see a much, much better performance from her.

You just have to be with 2 Phanta (Bet Now: $2.05), who is second up here for Team Gangemi. Not sure he beat much when resuming here last Wednesday but good lord, he made an absoltue mess of them and ran sizzling time. I think he only just has to hold that form to be winning again.

9 Secret Deploy (Bet Now: $5.50) deserves another chance. Adam Durrant trained three year old that resumed here two weeks ago and if you were on, apologies for bringing it back up. He had zero luck in the straight and pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial. Fitter, with upside, he’s a key threat.

4 Blow Me Out (Bet Now: $16.00) comes here with fresh legs for Brett Pope, having not raced for five weeks since a closing second over the mile here when a narrow second to a very much in form Billy Ray. Back to 1400m shouldn’t be an issue and with good form, I think is hard to beat.

There is a query on some of these at 2200m, whereas I think 6 Mystery Moment (Bet Now: $4.50) will eat it up. Can easily make a case to say she should have won the Belmont Oaks two weeks ago but had zero luck in the straight when wanting to build the revs, driving hard late to just miss when a close up fourth. I think she is the one with staying prowess and is hard to beat.

1 Black Fantasy (Bet Now: $2.80) has the runs on the board. Showed good ticker to take out the Aquanita last time, wearing down leader and stablemate Outspoken Lad in a driving go. He looks as if he will be fine at 2200m, and does have the class edge, so at set weights, he clearly appeals.

7 Flower In The Wind (Bet Now: $5.00) is another from the Belmont Oaks and I think she too is a threat. Like the other filly Mystery Moment, she was held up and seemingly had plenty to give, but couldn’t get clear air. She has looked a styer for some time, so the rise to 2200m is no issue. A win wouldn’t shock.

7 Reliable Star (Bet Now: $3.60) has been up for a while, but gee she’s racing in super form and is now a winning machine. Showed good grit to win here last Saturday, really lifting late under Holly Watson to score. Gets CJP aboard now. Back to 2000m a slight query, but I can’t get away from her.

2 Divine Shadow (Bet Now: $18.00) has the class edge and that could well get him home. He ran in the Strickland two weeks ago and he was very good from the back behind Prince Turbo. That was a solid Stakes race, so back to benchmark grade, he has to rate as one of the hardest to beat.

1 Black Shadow (Bet Now: $16.00) also comes through the Strickland. Jim Taylor trained veteran that was near the speed throughout and just lacked the change up speed to go with them late behind Prince Turbo. Much better suited at this level and with upside, is one for multiples.

Back to his own age with an inside gate, I am in the corner of 1 Beads (Bet Now: $5.50) for Steve Wolfe. Strong winner fresh at this track/distance against his own age before taking on older horses his next two and has been far from disgraced in defeat. Back to 3YO grade from gate one, he’ll only run well.

4 State Of Power (Bet Now: $4.80) is a filly of some promise for Simon Miller. This girl is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she hit the front after getting a suck run and was hailed as the winner but was nabbed late by Bitofmerit, who was terrible last Saturday, but had excuses. Hopefully the track can dry out for her to show her best.

5 Storm Commander (Bet Now: $7.50) is dangerous with a drag into the race. Last couple of runs they have ridden him cold and while he hasn’t won, he has been pretty good, the latest behing Thomas Magnum, clocking good late splits. Can win for sure if he’s within range 400m out.

10 Sneaky Chance (Bet Now: $3.60) has been up forever it seems like but gee she is holding her form nicely. She is four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she settled back in the run and charged late to just miss out on the win when second to Nowhiteflag. The break between runs should help the query of being in work a long time, and she maps kindly.

5 Ruuca (Bet Now: $10.00) is a fascinating runner. Foremrly with Team Edmonds, he now finds himself with Team Gangemi. His form tapered off towards the end of his time in QLD, but at his absolute best, he is a Stakes class horse, and we know this stbale can get the best out of a tried horse, so watch the market.

4 Captain Kink (Bet Now: $71.00) is one to watch from a market perspective. Brett Pope trained gelding that hasn’t raced since his resumption back on May 28 when wide no cover on speed at this track/distance and tired late in a clear forgive. The break between runs I find interesting, so watch the market and see what it does with him.

11 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now: $2.50) is such a fascinating runner but with potential/class, she’s on top. The query is the break between runs, a couple of months off since a very good second to a handy filly, a very handy filly, in Zephyra. Break between runs but she has quality over all of these.

9 Shake The Bloom (Bet Now: $8.50) can bounce back into the winners list. Jeremy Easthope trained mare that won her opening two runs for the prep before racing here three weeks ago where she got back to near last in the run and was very good late behind Olden, producing the best late splits of the race. Hard to beat against this lot.

4 Olden (Bet Now: $12.00) has found positive form and is holding it. He is on the seven day back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where the track became bottomless and he ran a brave race in horrible conditions behind No Apology. With a firmer deck, he can bounce back.

I’m with 3 Bright Diamond (Bet Now: $2.80) in a tricky sprint race. Adam Durrant trained mare that was an impressive winner first up before going to this trip where the market didn’t want her and while she wasn’t terrible, she was nowhere near as good as she was first up. Hard to beat now she’s third up and hard fit.

2 Mood Swings (Bet Now: $5.00) is a George Dupre trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since April 16 when he gapped them from the front at Ascot, running good time. Interesting he resumes without a trial, and drawn wide, but gets in well after the claim and is a short course specialist.

9 Position Of Power (Bet Now: $31.00) is suited back to 1200m. Ran over 1400m here last Saturday where he found an absolute bog and like most later in the meeting, picking the feet up was an issue, so for mine, he was a clear forgive. Back in trip, and perhaps a more economical run, he can run an improved race.

BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Aztec Ruler

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 11 The Velvet Queen

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 1 I’m Pretty

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6

Leg Two: 4, 5, 7, 10

Leg Three: 11

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 9

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