17/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Caulfield Cup day

The first of the ‘Big Three’ in Melbourne for the Spring is the Caulfield Cup and the 2400m feature is the highlight across ten races at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Going the way of 3 Power Scheme (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Handy four year old that resumed over 1400m here three weeks ago and I thought closed his race off really well when third to Rich Hips. Fitter, up to 1700m, upside, he does tick a lot of boxes and this isn’t an overly strong benchmark 80.

2 Skiddaw (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) certainly has the talent to take this out for the Danny O’Brien team. Definite pass mark first up at Geelong behind Simply Optimistic before going to Flemington and on face value, he was plain behind Affair To Remember, but perhaps just went that bit keen in the run. Better suited here and can take this out.

Can make a little case at odds for the Hayes/Dabernig former Hong Kong galloper 5 Not Mine (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS). Australian debut for the camp came over 1400m here in the Rich Hips where he was back and wide, forced to make an early run, and his condition just gave out late. He’ll come on from that and is a sleeper at a decent price.

Very winnable race for the Clinton McDonald trained filly 3 Yosemite (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS). This is the easiest race she has contested since her maiden win first up. Two back was midfield behind September Run in what is shaping up to be one of the strongest form references of the Spring, the Cap D’Antibes. She then went to the Thousand Guineas Prelude where she got back and made ground without threatening. Winnable race this if she can sit closer in the run.

2 Rainbiel (Bet Now: $2.15 TOP ODDS) deserves a crack at some blacktype. Anthony Chibnall has done a fab job with this filly this prep, winning 2/2 and each time she has been dominant. Impressive first up win at Benalla when leading, then took a sit at Kyneton and was even more impressive. Clearly a harder assignment here, but think she’s up to it.

1 Yes Baby Yes (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is suited back to the mile for Team Corstens. Sat near the speed in the Edward Manifold and tried hard, but 1600m just found her out and she tired late behind Thermosphere. Back to 1400m is a tick for this girl, Williams steers and despite drawing wide, she has the early toe to overcome it.

Like 6 Endanger (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) as a horse and I think he’ll take some beating here. Team Freedman trained three year old that was an impressive debut winner at Cranbourne before being spelled. Resumed over 1200m at the Valley where he wasn’t 100% happy on the tight track but balanced up late and was strong, just missing out on the win. Bigger track, fitter, up to 1400m, really like him here.

2 Osamu (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up for Chris Waller after racing in the Roman Consul last Saturday at Randwick. Was made to find the lead and he tried hard, but bumped into a really smart one in Wild Ruler, tiring to run fourth. Should lead this field up and if he can get a cheap furlong or two, he’ll take some running down.

9 Miraitowa (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a Kevin Corstens trained colt that had jumped out quite well at Cranbourne prior to his debut at Ballarat, so it was no real surprise to see him well backed. He was near the speed throughout under Michael Rodd and looked to travel sweetly throughout. Clicked up early on in the straight and he was strong to the line in winning. Looks smart and think he can measure up.

8 Redwood Shadow (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is the one that is progressing nicely towards the Derby, much like Tarzino from a few years ago. That horse won a Ballarat maiden en route to a Derby success and that is the path the Price/Kent stable is taking again with Redwood Shadow. He looks a real stayer, so the 2000m is ideal and is a key threat.

3 The Pres (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is racing like he wants 2000m. Busuttin/Young trained three year old that comes through the Super Impose at Flemington where he was back and held up at various stages, but eventually got clear and worked home strongly. Bowman takes the ride and despite drawing wide, think he’s a key chance.

6 Trodaire (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) looks a nice horse for Lloyd Kennewell. Knuckled down strongly to win first up in an Echuca maiden before going to the Moonee Valley mile where he didn’t look comfortable at all inside runners and on the tight track. He’s a nice type and will love the rise to 2000m. Think he’s a knockout chance.

6 Pensato (Bet Now: $8.00) is heading in the right direction towards the Oaks and confirmed her spot in the field with a dominant win in the Trial during the midweeks at Flemington when on speed and drawing clear late tow in impressively. Harder here, but she looks suited up to 2000m and is one of the hardest to beat.

4 Succeed Indeed (Bet Now: $6.00) should appreciate the rise to 2000m. She comes through the Edward Manifold and was one of a couple of desperately unlucky runners. Should have fought the finish out when fourth to Thermosphere. Racing as if the 2000m will suit and is bred to handle it, so she’s a key threat here.

14 Yatton (Bet Now: $16.00) should love the rise to 2000m. Michael Moroney trained filly that comes through the Oaks Trial at Flemington won by Pensato. She was very good from the back, closing off with purpose late off a slow speed. The extra ground looks ideal, can sit closer in the run and does get Blinkers first time to sharpen her up.

3 Fituese (Bet Now: $2.50) is an absolute beauty for John Thompson. Carried topweight of 58kg when taking on the boys first up at Rosehill a few weeks ago and gee she was impressive in winning. Admittedly had the drop on the speed and last look, but enormous to concede weight to the boys and win. She’s a ripper and is hard to beat.

2 California Zimbol (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Team Snowden trained mare that had trialled up really well prior to resuming at Warwick Farm in what was a strong open sprint and 250m out, she was there to win and beat Villami, but that mare packed too many punches and I reckon California Zimbol just ran out of condition late. She’ll come on from that and is a key chance.

7 Pinyin (Bet Now: $8.00) is a quirky mare but I think the key to her has been found. She needs to be in races where the tempo is soft so she can be within range on the turn and use her lethal turn of foot, which is what was done three weeks back here when winning and producing the best splits of the meeting. Reproduces that here and she’s in the mix.

7 Garner (Bet Now: $5.50) can bounce back here. On face value, he was terrible four weeks ago in the Wylie at Morphettville, but Vorster aboard Ef Troop rode to beat Garner, making it sit three and four wide throughout near a hot speed, and that put pay to both of their winning chances, and Garner was found to be lame post race. Garner has a strong record at Caulfield and fresh legs here, he can explode and blouse these late.

6 Alfa Oro (Bet Now: $2.20) looks one of the hardest to beat for Matt Laurie. Was scratched from the Schillaci in preference for this race and he does look well placed against this lot. His last start resulted in a dominant win over 955m at the Valley, where he didn’t beat much, but it was the arrogance in which he won that impressed me. Hard to beat back up in trip.

3 Graff (Bet Now: $9.00) is the huge query here. Now under the care of Danny O’Brien, this former top juvenile has really struggled for form for over 12 months pretty much. Now has a new home at Flemington and thought his recent jumpout work was very encouraging. If he brings anywhere near his best, he wins. Watch the market.

4 Wild Planet (Bet Now: $5.50) is suited back to 1400m. Tried to stretch out to the mile in the Epsom and I thought was given a plum ride. Just didn’t see the trip out behind Probabeel. Much better placed at 1400m than the mile and has the A1 form on the board compared to some of these, so I think he’ll take some beating.

9 Windstorm (Bet Now: $2.90) is the leading threat. Team Williams has him flying and this run will top him off for the Golden Eagle in a couple of weeks. Ran at this track/distance last Saturday and under Pike, he finished right over the top for another impressive win. Tricky gate to overcome, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

The one that is silly odds here is 5 Gaulois (Bet Now: $20.00). James Cummings trained gelding that comes through the Paris Lane at Flemington where he led and remember that meeting saw no leaders run top three. Much more speed in this race so suspect Zahra will take cover, get a good sit off it, and he’s a horse who thrives when getting his toe in.

The weather is going to be so critical towards this race. If the rain doesn’t hit as hard as what they are predicting, a Good4/Soft 5 at worst, 1 Anthony Van Dyck (Bet Now: $7.00) wins. Yes, he has topweight, but given his record and form around him, he’s thrown in at the weights, and we’ve seen in recent years with Dunaden, Admire Rakti and Best Solution, carrying a heavy weight isn’t a disadvantage for the good ones, and he’s a top one.

9 Finche (Bet Now: $9.50) is ticking along beautifully towards the Melbourne Cup. He was so brave in this race last year and I think is going as well. He did plenty of work in the Turnbull last time out yet kept finding so courageously when a close up third to Verry Elleegant. He’ll eat up more ground…does he need this run to top him off for Flemington?

7 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $5.50) proved once and for all that she can handle a firm track with an outstanding win in the Turnbull two weeks ago. Made a long sustained run into the wind and was there to be run down, but she showed class and toughness in surging late to win. She’ll eat up 2400m and a drop of rain will ensure she’s the one to beat.

4 Buckhurst (Bet Now: $13.00) is the huge unknown here. His Gold Cup run behind Magical was ordinary, so the stable sent him to Leopardstown and it was pretty much a barrier trial for him. Get him back off the speed and find the line, which he did behind leading Melbourne Cup contender Tiger Moth. 2400m is his trip and he has class.

4 Felicia (Bet Now: $3.70) is racing in career best form and despite being a query at 1400m, the thing going for her is that she comes out of a fast run race from last Saturday, which was the Northwood Plume, when a fighting second to Fiesta after doing work on speed. Should lead this field for fun and gets Williams to stick.

1 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $4.60) is in career best form for the McEvoy camp. Outstanding in defeat at Group l level in the Rupert Clarke when third to Behemoth before going to the Blazer and gee it was an ugly watch if you were on. Should have fought the finish out with Sierra Sue but had no luck at all in the straight. Better luck this time around and she’ll take a power of beating.

9 Rich Hips (Bet Now: $14.00) rises significantly in grade/depth but has upside to come and is in the right stable. Three weeks between runs since a strong winner at this track/distance in a much weaker race, but it was a confidence boost she needed after a couple of so so runs prior. Needs a career best to measure up, but she’s capable, and stable is humming.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Fituese

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Endanger

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 8 Redwood Shadow

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten:

Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8

Leg Two: 4, 9

Leg Three: 1, 4, 7, 9

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 9

$50 Investment = % of the dividend if successful

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