17/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, The Everest day

A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Randwick on Saturday, highlighted by the richest race on turf in the world, the TAB Everest (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

The Everest 🏔: View the Field for The Everest

3 Captivant (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Capitalist for Team Snowden that is having start one. He jumped out down the straight at Flemington and looked pretty sharp I thought on speed under Lane, going about his business really nicely and having plenty in hand to the eye, then trialled here earlier in the week and looked great again in winning that trial. Another son of Capitalist for the stable and would love to get an early win with his progeny.

8 Emerald Bay (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks a pretty good type for the WaterBott team. Seemed a giant of a horse compared to others when she won her trial here over the 740m. Showed good early toe to lead and she lengthened nicely when Tim Clark asked for an effort. Looks a pro and should prove quite hard to beat on debut.

10 She’s All Class (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller filly on debut. She trialled a couple of weeks back at Rosehill over 900m, leading throughout under Bowman and what I liked is that when he asked for an effort, she responded and drew clear late to win impressively. Draws soft and I think is one of a few winning hopes.

Keen on 8 Air Marshal (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) running well here. Mark Schmetzer trained four year old that has done a very good job in recent runs. Gave them a spanking two back at Armidale before contesting a strong 64 race at Newcastle and he produced some very sharp late splits when a close up fifth to a city class mare in Amorita. Tommy Berry on, if he can use the gate to advantage, he’ll take some beating.

Good test here for 16 Mr Moppett (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) but I think he’s earned a crack at a Highway. 2/2 this time in, producing the goods to win first up at Corowa before sitting off the speed at Leeton and was more impressive, letting down hard and running good time. He’s a progressive type and hard to knock a horse with a picket fence.

7 Lady Demi (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a Highway veteran for Terry Robinson. This will be her seventh Highway appearance so she’s had a few chances, but at the same time, she should have won more than one, with her racing pattern ensuring she received more bad luck than good. No trials leading in, but goes well fresh and Brock Ryan gets on well with her.

10 Opacity (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) hasn’t been one of mine, but gee the weights scale is perfect for him to bounce back into the winners list. Like a few engaged here, he comes through the Laure Me In race from two weeks ago and he chased strongly from off the pace, with 58kg. He tumbles down to 52kg now and I’d love to see Robbie Dolan be positive from the good draw. He’ll do me here.

5 Laure Me In (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) has to be a key threat. David Pfieffer trained gelding that was good first up at Rosehill but loved the way he toughed it out to win here two weeks back. Was headed off by Matowi and looked as if he would run a game second, but he was more than game. Fought back so well and was able to come back and win. He’s got upside to come and is a leading chance.

11 Pancho (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance for Chris Waller. Comes through the Laure Me In race from a fortnight ago here where he had the suck run in behind and did try hard, but overall, thought he had his chance when fourth, beaten just over a length. He’s running out of chances, but he might just be working up towards peak fitness.

Leaning towards 12 Bargain (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). Mark Newnham trained filly that hasn’t raced since producing a strong finish from the back to win her maiden on Newcastle Cup Day. Four winners have already come out of that race, so it’s red hot form, and her tick over trial last week at Warwick Farm was very sharp. If she uses gate one, she’s hard to hold out.

8 Darling Diamond (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) looks a really talented filly for Mark Newnham. Comes here off the back of a midweek maiden win on the Kenso track here, but it was over 1400m and she smashed the clock in winning, running sub 1.22 for the 1400m, which is good going. She’s more than capable of beating this lot.

5 Zero To Hundred (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is suited up in trip with the run under the belt. Resumed over 1300m on the Kenso track here and was good late from the back behind Alison Of Tuffy. Second up last prep she was beaten a lip during the Brisbane Carnival, and she does look like a filly that’s been targeted for this race. Leading contender.

Is 14 It’s Me (Bet Now: $2.30) that good? The times will say well and truly yes. Not often that the Highways can smash the clock relative to the day, especially feature race days, but that is what it’s Me did last time out, assuring herself the spot as favourite for this race. She runs time, but 1200m is a different pain barrier and she’s beaten nothing. IMO, she’s way too short, but concede she’s one of the hardest to beat.

1 Handle The Truth (Bet Now: $8.00) can make it back-to-back wins in the race. He resumed at Randwick two weeks ago and it was a lovely return from the sprinter, closing off nicely without much room late behind Athiri. Keith Dryden did say pre race that the horse would improve big time off that run, and he’s the proven performer on this stage.

8 Ligulate (Bet Now: $31.00) is a quality animal when right. Cody Morgan trained gelding that needs a dry track, so the weather will determine how strong his winning chances are. He resumed at Tamworth in an Open Handicap and was very good in defeat in what was a prep run for this assignment. Tick over trial last week was strong and he’s got the class to win this.

1 Deprive (Bet Now: $2.90) is primed to go here. James Cummings trained sprinter who resumed in the Premiere and he was outstanding from the back when third to Libertini. He wouldn’t have looked out of place in an Everest given his lethal 1200m record. He won this race last year and looks spot on to repeat the dose in 2020.

Perfect set up for 4 Standout (Bet Now: $4.40) to bounce back to winning form, but there is a query on how much upside that is left after a couple of gutbusters, the latest in the Premiere when putting the pressure on early for Nature Strip to hunt up and lead, both of them gassed late. More controlled tempo this time around, he can win.

3 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $17.00) has the third up pattern to suggest he’ll run a beauty here. Far from disgraced first up in The Shorts before going to Warwick Farm where not much went his way in what was an open sprint, but may as well have been a Group lll race, which was won by Villami. He’ll do no work from the draw and be strong late.

It’s amazing to think that 1 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $6.50) is just about the forgotten horse given a few weeks ago, he was $2.50 and all the rage. His best is better than these. Admittedly, he hasn’t shown anything like it this prep, but he’s not a first up horse, so can forgive that, then you have to forgive the Premiere run where pulled up post race with excuses. If he brings his best, he wins, and the price you’re getting is a decent enough gamble to find out.

7 Gytrash (Bet Now: $6.00) has the A1 form, with a 2-0 record over Nature Strip and a blistering first up win in the Concorde. That alone has to be respected. From a price perspective though, he’s just too short for me given his peak figures have been at 1000m, and his 1200m numbers, as it stands, won’t cut it. You’re banking on the stable having him right to go with the fresh legs and Gordon Richards is an excellent trainer.

The forgotten horse is well and truly 2 Trekking (Bet Now: $15.00). Two starts ago, he beat Gytrash fair and square in the Goodwood and keep in mind Gytrash is a horse who has a 2-0 record over Nature Strip, albeit over 1000m when Nature Strip was vulnerable. Trekking was spelled after Adelaide, resumed in the Moir and was very good in defeat behind Pippie. He’s primed to run well here.

Up to 2000m I do find interesting with 2 Star Of The Seas (Bet Now: $2.35) but he does have the class factor and that will carry him a long way. Started favourite in the Epsom and on face value, thought he was plain behind Probabeel, but he did have excuses I felt. Like him up in trip and he’s only fourth up, so he’s got improvement you would imagine.

11 Vanna Girl (Bet Now: $4.60) is finally out to an ideal trip, and finds a very winnable race. Team Edmonds trained mare that didn’t do a great deal in the Epsom but just got too far back in the run and was never a winning factor. She can sit much closer in the run this time around and up to 2000m should be ideal for her.

4 Life Less Orindary (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Chris Waller trained middle distance galloper who can add value to exotics. I’d forget his run in the Hill Stakes a fortnight back. Kolding ran around 33.5 for his last 600m so those from the back had zero chance, including this guy. Better suited here and is a knockout chance at decent odds.

Bjorn Baker wouldn’t back up 10 She’s Ideel (Bet Now: $4.00) for nothing and the way this race has panned out now with the acceptances, I think this is a very winnable race for her. She was outstanding when winning last Saturday. Had to overcome a few traffic issues to keep finding under Nash and get up to win. Eats up the extra ground and is right down in the weights.

3 Attorney (Bet Now: $6.00) is the one with upside and timing. Matty Smith trained gelding that produced good late splits to take out the Colin Stephen at Rosehill, and could have backed up in the Metropolitan or run last Saturday in the Herbert Power in search of a Caulfield Cup berth, but stable have taken this approach and it’s a winnable race.

6 Lord Fandango (Bet Now: $51.00) isn’t well weighted and is still paying the price for his good form earlier in his career, but I reckon Jeremy Gask has him flying. He’s beaten one runner home in each of his respective last couple of runs, but he’s hit the line with purpose on both occasions. I think he’s a real knockout chance here up in trip.

3 Best Stone (Bet Now: $6.00) is a John Thompson trained mare who should land near the front here and prove hard to get past. Nash produced a very aggressive ride on her to win at Canterbury, leading from the wide gate and once she got control, it was game over. If she can get the front here and get a cheap furlong, she’ll give a stack of cheek and look the winner for a fair way.

6 Mirra Vision (Bet Now: $4.60) is racing well but she just can’t quite crack it for a win. Thought it would come on the Monday meeting at Canterbury where she was given a lovely steer by Tommy Berry. Just wasn’t good enough to beat Best Stone. She was 1400m to 1250m that day, so back up to 1400m, I think she’s hard to beat here.

2 Oakfield Missile (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Not A Single Doubt mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since June 13 at Rosehill when down the track but far from disgraced in defeat behind Monegal. Trials leading in have been pretty good, she’s a two time first up winner and off her previous form, this is a winnable race if she’s right.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 10 Opacity

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Nature Strip

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 8 Air Marshal

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 11, 12

Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful