17/7/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Classic day

Nine races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday where it is Belmont Classic Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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8 Born To Be Lucky (Bet Now: $31.00) on top for me in what looks a tricky race for the juveniles. Jason Pateman trained filly that resumes, having not raced since her debut back in May at Ascot over 1200m when back near last in the run and making up ground late when fourth. Resumes without a trial, but at least she has 1200m form and should have improvement from prep one to prep two.

1 Storm Commander (Bet Now: $2.05) looks to have a fair amount of ticker for Neville Parnham. Ran over 1000m here last time out when on speed and was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure, kicked hard and was too good. Just needs to stretch out to 1200m to go close.

6 My Boy Chris (Bet Now: $35.00) comes through the Storm Commander race. He was met with support at a big price and while he didn’t figure in the finish, he ran a pretty solid race from near last in the run. If he can use the inside gate and settle closer in the run, I think he could be dangerous up in trip.

3 Snippy Miss (Bet Now: $3.90) loves to get her toe in so with conditions to suit, I’m in her corner. Was with her when she won three weeks ago over 1200m here, leading throughout and she was strong to the line. Back to 1000m on face value is a negative but a testing track, she will be strong at the end.

Market watch for sure with 6 Indigo Wild (Bet Now: $11.00), a Jason Pateman trained mare that resumes. Hasn’t raced since Feb 6 at Pinjarra at a metro meeting when down the track and at the end of her prep. Resumes without a trial but is a mare that can spring well fresh so watch the market.

4 City Circle (Bet Now: $8.00) is on the seven day back up for Neville Parnham after racing here last Saturday. She sat near the speed in chasing Olga Luisa and tried hard, but that horse was too good from the front. Not sure I could back City Circle to win but one for multiples.

5 Silkinize (Bet Now: $5.50) should prove hard to beat here for the David Harrison camp. Was five weeks between runs when racing a fortnight back here. He was wide with cover and quite keen in the run but finished off his race well enough when third to Amasenus. He’ll improve off that and is hard to beat in a race like this.

2 Mankind (Bet Now: $20.00) has class and that will carry him a long way. Resumed here two weeks ago when he paraded like he would need the run and that is how it panned out behind the in form mare Amasenus. His second job record isn’t flash but I keep coming back to class.

3 Guns Of Navarone (Bet Now: $23.00) is five weeks between runs for Neville Parnham since racing here when wide with cover and launching late in a good effort I thought. Likes racing with fresh legs and won’t mind some give in the track so for mine, he is a knockout chance.

5 Sugar Cain (Bet Now: $4.60) must be showing something at home to continue persisting from Team Williams. To the eye, she is going just fair, but one thing I have noticed with her form. 2000m+, when Pike has ridden, the stats are 9: 4-1-2. If you trust that, which I do, I think she will only run well here.

1 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now: $2.80) will love getting away from benchmark company and he finds a very thin 1MW race I feel. Heaving supported when racing here three weeks ago but was wide no cover for a fair portion of the race and tired late. Likes wet ground and drops massively in grade/depth.

6 Choose Freedom (Bet Now: $23.00) is on the seven day back up after racing here last Saturday. He had a suck run behind the speed and tried hard, buy could get quicken in the testing conditions. He was a few weeks between runs so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

I want to give 6 Baronova (Bet Now: $4.80) another chance. Was on her back two weeks ago in the Belmont Oaks and I thought McNaught rode a very ordinary race on the filly. Followed the right horse throughout before going to follow a roughie that was going nowhere and it ended up being a horror show. Better luck in running and she can win.

2 Tena Koutou (Bet Now: $2.30) looks a decent prospect for the Durrant camp. First look at 2000m last time out in the Aquanita and despite doing a bit wrong in the straight, he was far too good. He’s heading in the right direction and up in trip, he will take beating here.

3 Tradem’ In (Bet Now: $10.00) is a knockout chance. He comes through the Aquanita where he got a mile back in the run but tracked up and loomed to win the race. Just couldn’t quite finish it off. That should toughen him up for this assignment and he’s got upside to come.

2200m back to the mile is a query with 5 True Attraction (Bet Now: $2.45) but if this is a testing track, which I assume it will be, it’ll become survival of the fittest and this guy will be that with that 2200m run under the belt, which was a beauty. Think he’s the one to beat here.

Straight to the mile I find interesting with 3 Friaresque (Bet Now: $6.00) given he jumps from 1200m and is five weeks between runs. That 1200m run saw him wide with cover and worked to the line pretty well. He’s okay on wet ground, but not sure about a heavy so will be interesting to see how he goes.

2 Flow (Bet Now: $15.00) is proven on heavy ground and does have class, which will carry him a long way. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight ago and was far from disgraced I thought behind Not To Be Mist. The 1600m should be okay for him and the wet track brings him into the mix.

I think back to his own age, 1 Brooklyn Pier (Bet Now: $2.35) should take some beating. Brilliant winner here fresh against his own age. Next two have come against seasoned sprinters and he has been far from disgraced in some strong sprint races. Back to his own age, he appeals big time.

Interesting that 4 Excerpt (Bet Now: $8.50) was scratched from an easier race here on Wednesday in preference for this. He beat up the older horses at Kalgoorlie last time out and the depth to that field did look pretty strong for that part of the world. If he handles the wet ground, he’ll be around the mark.

5 Choice Bid (Bet Now: $16.00) is such a tough animal for Neville Parnham, a stable that is absolutely flying at metro level in recent weeks. This guy sat on speed in a 1200m maiden here last time out and toughed it out best to get the job. Maps to get a soft run and is a must for exotics.

Fitter with the services of Pike, I’ll give 9 Real Grace (Bet Now: $2.20) another chance. Plain resumption so she had several weeks off and ran here when back and held up. Eventually got clear and was good late when fourth. Getting towards peak fitness and she does have quality about her.

10 Rocky Path (Bet Now: $20.00) is racing really well this time in and a bit of juice in the track will be no issue for her. Ran over this track/distance last time out where she got a mile off them in the run but loved the way she closed off. If she can sit closer in the run, gee I think she will be dangerous.

7 Wakan Tanka (Bet Now: $15.00) can again without surprising. Had him in the numbers when a winner at $51+ here a fortnight back. I thought he could run a positive race but a win did somewhat surprise. He was on speed and there to be run down but he found and held on. Has to be included again.

Weight relief and hopefully a genuine tempo should suit 4 Aberdeen Queen (Bet Now: $3.60). I’ve been quite keen on her the last couple of runs and she has let me down, but a combo of big weights and slow tempos haven’t helped her cause. Gets good weight relief and likes wet ground.

Market will be fascinating with 3 Picture Perfect (Bet Now: $13.00), who resumes for Team Williams. Talented five year old that had a two run Summer prep and didn’t fire a shot in both runs. Been given a good break, has trialled well leading in and has a good record at Belmont.

5 Cambist (Bet Now: $16.00) is a talented staying mare for Robyn Lockwood that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since Feb 13 when racing over the mile at Ascot and running just a fair race, but was fresh off a Perth Cup run and perhaps was just looking for a proper spell, which she has had, trialled well and has class. Can pull out a decent run fresh.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 3 Snippy Miss

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 True Attraction

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Sugar Cain

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9

Leg Three: 7, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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