17/8/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick

The Kensington track at Randwick is where Sydney racing takes place this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Bit of a throw at the stumps here in the opener in the shape of 9 Airfree (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) for Natalie Jarvis. This gelding made a mess of them first up at Nowra, landing some good bets, before going to the Acton track at Canberra and I just don’t think he handled the surface at all, and perhaps second up after that electric win fresh on a wet track, she was flat. Third up bounce back on the cards, and he draws to get a lovely run behind the speed, which should be Alcatran and Assault’N’Bathory.

1 I Am Capitan (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) will get a dry deck for this assignment so it’s D-Day for him. He’s let the punters down for the most part this prep despite not really being far away. I just don’t think he’s been effective on these wet tracks Sydney has had recently, yet has run well. He’s hard fit now, up to 1300m on dry ground with class on his side…contender or pretender time.

2 My Tagosan (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is the clear watch horse. Rod Northam very rarely has runners in these Highway runners so stand up and take notice when he brings one. He has this bloke, who resumes, having not raced since the Scone Carnival in 2018 when placing behind stablemate After All That, who of course has since performed well at Stakes level. This bloke has form far superior to Highway level. Just depends on fitness levels.

Gee it was ugly viewing if you were on 2 Velocita(Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) at Randwick a few weeks ago. Looked to be bolting behind the speed but Blake Shinn couldn’t get the run when he wanted it and by the time he did get clear, the ship had sailed and she pretty much went around like a barrier trial. She’s going well this girl and finds a really winnable race here against this lot.

1 Connemara (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a Bjorn Baker trained mare I couldn’t back to win with borrowed money but concede she’s going well without winning. Loomed large to beat Haut Brion Her last Saturday at Rosehill but the class of that mare kicked in and Connemara couldn’t go with her, but safely beat the rest. Looks like 1400m will suit, she’s bursting to win a race…I just can’t back her.

10 Constellations (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is an Anthony Cummings trained mare that resumes. She is eligible for much easier but she did run well at this level last prep so no real surprise she resumes here. Has had two trials in readiness for her return, the latest coming here on Monday behind the above average Pretty Brazen and looked to go about her business nicely. Interesting to see how she goes.

9 Pandemic (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) looks a pretty smart animal and confident he can make it 2/2. He trialled up very sharply prior to his debut at Wyong where he sat off the speed before Tommy pushed the button on the turn, found clear air and I loved the way he put them away late to win impressively. Time for the day was solid and the second/third horses have won since. Confident he runs well.

6 Aussie (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) creates interest. He had a bit of a boom on him as a 2YO, seeing him hard in the market on debut when midfield behind Dawn Passage before a close up fifth in the Blue Diamond Prelude. Got the maiden win next time out at Hawkesbury and was sent for a spell. Two trials have been decent enough…just want to see what the market does with him.

Have always had a bit of time for the Peter Robl trained 7 All Cylinders (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS). This girl was considered an outside Slipper chance after her first two career outings, which were impressive. Then had no luck in the Black Opal before racing like a tired horse in the Kindergarten and was tipped out. Two trials leading in have been good and she’s got nice change up speed when right.

It’s interesting what they do with 5 November Man(Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). He’ll be conceding a start and depending on how the track plays, he could be in trouble, but he ran at this track/distance last prep behind Brook Magic and ran sub 33 for his last 600m in running a narrow second. Brings that here, he wins. Two trials indicate he’s come back well. Just hope he’s forward enough.

2 Royal Witness (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Joe Pride who has been excellent in two runs back from a spell. Fitness beat him first up when bloused late by Invictus Salute before bumping into a then flying Taniko. Freshened up and he looked well within himself in a tick over trial last week at Warwick Farm. He likely lands near the speed and will be hard to run down.

Couldn’t back 4 Rebel Miss (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) to win with borrowed money, but she’s a must for exotics in these kind of races. She has about a 50m-75m burst when asked, then she paddles, which makes her such a tricky horse to steer. She is a two time first up winner who has looked solid in a couple of trials. She’ll be thereabouts like usual…just can’t back her to win.

Looking at this race with Wolfe out. 3 Slow Burn (Bet Now: $4.20) is racing well for Les Bridge and is a definite knockout chance. She ran over 1400m at Randwick two weeks ago where she was never really at any stage in the straight when seemingly having something to offer and should have been in the finish behind The Party Girl. She’s starting to find some positive form and her best is clearly good enough to beat these.

5 Commander (Bet Now: $3.60) has really turned the corner in recent times. Once upon a time, he was a plodder and a lucky winner of a Stakes race, but the last couple of months has seen some real consistency to his racing, the latest coming at the midweeks at Warwick Farm when a strong third to the in form Travancore. Back home, he should prove hard to beat.

6 Watchdog (Bet Now: $3.30) is no star but he’s a horse you’d love to own. He’s won three of 18 with a further ten placings, the latest placing coming last start when second to Travancore after getting every chance in the run. Tried hard, but was just no match. Like the way he’s going about it at the moment and has to be regarded as one of the leading chances.

In the corner of 11 Dagny (Bet Now: $19.00). This mare is a month between runs, last racing over 2000m at Randwick when back and trying hard after missing the start but had to settle for second to stablemate Wu Gok. Tumbles down to 50.5kg after the claim for Robbie Dolan and if she can jump clean, I think she’ll take some beating because I reckon she’s going well.

Third up at 1800m, I’m giving respect to the Bjorn Baker trained 4 Goodfella (Bet Now: $6.00). He is three weeks between runs since contesting the Winter Challenge at Rosehill where he was near the speed and tried his heart out, but was nabbed late by Seaway. Big tick up to 1800m, looks to get a good run near the pace and third up, he should be ready fitness wise.

Hard fit, 1800m…looks the A1 set up for 10 Savacool (Bet Now: $9.00) but she’s starting to become costly. Was really keen on her few weeks ago at Doomben over 2000m but stablemate Another Dollar just got an absolute picnic in front, was entitled to boot away when asked and that she did under Ryan Maloney, with Savacool not being able to produce the finale to get past her. Running out of chances…one more here.

I think 11 Bangkok (Bet Now: $7.00) can continue her winning ways. Allan Denham has this mare flying, winning her past two, the latest coming two weeks ago over 1400m at Randwick when off speed before peeling out on the turn and she put them away impressively, with her splits being some of the best of the race. Most of these may need the run or are out of form, where she is in form, hard fit, gets a sweet draw…why not again?

Back to 1400m on dry ground with a potentially soft lead should see 9 Cradle Mountain (Bet Now: $7.00) take some beating. This bloke is three weeks between runs since attempting to lead all the way in the Winter Challenge and he gave an early kick but was a beaten horse shortly after and tailed off last, pulling up slow to recover. Tick over trial last week was sharp and the start prior showed enough to say he’s back in business.

8 Firsthand (Bet Now: $12.00) is another that’s suited here. He lumped 60kg at Randwick two weeks ago and was never really a winning factor given the race shape but found the line well enough behind the in form Bangkok. Not sure that’s the A1 form reference for this but a dry track and likely rolling tempo in front will give him every chance to win. But he’s nearing last chance territory.

6 Bull Market (Bet Now: $18.00) is a really good each way gamble here. Team Snowden trains this gelding, who resumed over 1200m at the midweeks at Canterbury where he was back against the track pattern but despite that produced really good splits between the 800m-200m, looking the winner for a few strides, but his condition just gave out. Firmer footing and up to 1400m, fitter…he’s really likeable.

1 Thy Kingdom Come (Bet Now: $3.80) should just about be ready for John Thompson. He’s third up from a spell, having last raced at Randwick two weeks ago where he took the front early on in the straight and looked the winner for a stride or two, but he couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to The Party Girl. Another suited on top of the ground and is a winner here.

Interesting placement from the Feek team when it comes to 9 I Am Vinnie (Bet Now: $26.00). This bloke is flying at the moment, albeit his recent form, most of it, has been on the Pakenham Synthetic but the two ticks for him are that he’s been running time in winning/running well and there has been subsequent winners out of his races. Draws to do no work and I give him a knockout hope.

The track condition will be key to the chances of 2 Single Bullet (Bet Now: $19.00). Soft 5 or better, he’s a live chance. Anything worse and he’ll struggle. Has found genuine wet tracks this time in and just hasn’t gone a yard each time he has stepped out, which followed encouraging trials. His best is good enough to beat these, he likes racing at Randwick…just wants firmer footing.

10 Murillo (Bet Now: $6.00) is the interesting one. Team Snowden trains this former UK galloper, who had two runs in the Autumn and didn’t have the greatest of luck at each outing, but did show enough ability to suggest he’s at home here. Just one 735m trial leading in, but his best is certainly good enough and with a stack of speed engaged, he’ll get his chance.

Hoping they let 4 Goldfinch (Bet Now: $19.00) run along in front, because I think the 1100m start here does suit those nearer the speed. Steve Englebrecht has this mare going really well at the moment, her last run coming three weeks ago at Rosehill when second to Bon Amis. Last 50-100m will see her get the staggers late, but I think she’s worth an each way ticket for sure.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 9 Pandemic

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 11 Bangkok

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 6 Bull Market

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 7, 10, 11, 13

Leg Two: 4, 8, 9, 11

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 9

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 7, 10

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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