17/9/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Newcastle, Newcastle Cup day

Newcastle will host their biggest race day on Friday where it is Newcastle Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Akahata (Bet Now: $3.50) could press claims for a Spring Champion berth with a win or at least a very forward showing. Class got him home first up at Gosford before going to Wyong when just a bit one paced behind stablemate Ita, but not sure the tight track suited. Back on a more spacious track, he can win.

4 Silhouette (Bet Now: $2.40) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. But, I will say that $2.30/thereabouts is very much on the skinny side. Ran over 1300m on the Kenso track last time out and was a bit one paced but stayed on and was sound in defeat. Hard fit now, I reckon this is her D-Day.

3 Olympic Gaze (Bet Now: $14.00) saves his best for his home track here and at odds, he can be a threat. Resumed in town at Randwick where it looked more or less a prep and ran accordingly, but far from disgraced behind Brigantine. Much better suited here and is a knockout chance.

Several dual acceptors so the price might end up being skinny for 1 Yearning (Bet Now: $1.80), but even if they all run here, it won’t matter. She should be too good. If she is going to be a Flight Stakes filly, even an Oaks filly, she has to be winning this and despite the weight, she should. Excellent effort I thought in the Furious, with that form clearly reading A1 for this.

5 Left Reeling (Bet Now: $4.00) looks to have her share of talent for John Sargent. Unlucky not to win fresh at Goulburn, but last start at the same track, I thought she had her chance. If she runs here and not the Tea Rose, IMO, she is running for second behind Yearning.

6 White Glove Test (Bet Now: $34.00) is a well bred Chris Waller mare that is on debut. Interesting she comes here with just one trial under the belt, which came at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks back when third on the Polytrack. Doubt she wins, but one for exotics.

This looks a really tricky maiden. I want to give 2 Elected (Bet Now: $6.50) another chance. Both runs in Australia have been sound. He ran here last time out where he wanted to lay in under pressure but wasn’t too bad late. If he puts it all together, I think at close to double figured, he’s worth an each way ticket.

3 Statesmanship (Bet Now: $4.20) is a few weeks between runs for Team Snowden since his debut at Hawkesbury when near the speed throughout and battling on pretty well when third in a maiden which has produced a couple of winners. He shied at something in a recent tick over trial so perhaps drawing out won’t be so bad.

10 Exmouth Gulf (Bet Now: $10.00) is a watch horse for mine. Chris Waller trained youngster that debuted on Wyong Cup Day and I just didn’t think he appreciate the tight track. More specious surroundings this time around and he’s in the right camp, so not dismissing him.

6 Akasaki (Bet Now: $7.00) is looking to make it three wins in as many years in this race and I think he gets an ideal set up. He did win this race in 2019 first up and he does resume here. Interestingly without a trial, but there looks to be a stack of early speed, so he will sit off it and launch late.

No place to hide here for 4 Capital Reign (Bet Now: $2.45). Gary Portelli trained three year old that has been very well placed this time in, with wins at Scone and Taree. Much harder here, but hard to knock a horse who sits near the speed, fights and knows how to win.

3 Super (Bet Now: $12.00) is the watch horse. Talented gelding that resumes on his home track. Without a trial to get ready, but trained here, you’d assume he’s ready to go, and last prep, he was only three lengths off California Zimbol in the Maurice McCarten, which clearly reads well for this.

3 Dhakuri (Bet Now: $2.70) gets the nod for me. James Cummings trained gelding that is second up here and has won in town at this trip. Resumed a few weeks ago on the Kenso track in a fast run race and was pretty much run off his legs but was more than sound late I thought behind Brookspire. He’s got more upside than most and has the runs on the board.

8 Eye To Eye (Bet Now: $2.80) could press claims for a Spring Champion berth with a win here. Progressive son of Tivaci for Annabel Neasham that has had two career outings. Debuted at Muswellbrook and was good late before heading to Hawkesbury where he was ridden positively and was there to be run down, but found plenty under Bowman. Overall, this is a thin race, so he’s hard to beat.

Fitter and up in trip are two ticks for 2 Cordyceps Missile (Bet Now: $8.00), a Mark Newnham trained gelding that was having his first run for the new camp at 1400m when resuming at Hawkesbury. Near the speed throughout and his condition just gave way late. He’ll take good improvement from that and is one for multiples.

7 Outback Diva (Bet Now: $9.50) for me in the Tibbie. Good late fresh at Randwick behind Valaquenta. Freshened up over a month and ran in the Mona Lisa where she again hit the line well from off the speed when fourth to More Prophets. This looks an obvious target race, she draws soft and Magorrian rides Newcastle very well. I think this mare only runs well.

2 More Prophets (Bet Now: $5.50) is a mare that has found a real purple patch. Impressive win at Randwick before repeating the dose and snaring blacktype when taking out the Mona Lisa at Wyong, again ridden a treat by J Mac. Only has to hold her form to go close despite the depth increase.

8 Bargain (Bet Now: $23.00) is a quality mare for Mark Newnham that resumes. This girl had a busy Autumn/Winter that really came into her own as she stepped up in trip, so I’d think a race like the Matriarch at Flemington on Cup Week would be a perfect target. Trialled well at Warwick Farm, then stretched her legs in a Randwick trial. She’ll get back, sit off a good speed and launch late.

12 Great House (Bet Now: $12.00) is a very hard horse to catch but I’m convinced his best is certainly good enough to take this out. He lost sight of the compass when racing at Kembla three weeks ago. Charged home late but was a mile back when fourth to Our Intrigue. He can sit much closer in the run and we know he has a touch of class when right.

6 Harpo Marx (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing really well at the moment and has to be respected here. Backed with confidence last time out in the Premiers Cup and under a lovely steer from Rachel King, the horse sliced his way through the field, finished best and was too good. Hard to beat here.

Bit of juice in the track will be no harm for 8 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $46.00). He was off a mini let up when racing in the Wyong Cup and I thought his finale was more than sound in defeat behind Berdibek. Gets out in trip, fitter and does have a bit of quality about him when right so not dismissing him.

The likelihood of give in the track concerns me with 3 Rock (Bet Now: $4.00), but he is looking to make it three wins on the bounce in this race and I think is going well. Just looked in need of the run fresh behind Private Eye before going to the Tramway where he was clearly no match for Zaaki but with clear air, he runs a place. If this track can dry out, he’s hard to beat.

4 Duais (Bet Now: $5.00) is on a Caulfield Cup path, so whatever she does here, I dare say she will improve on, but she does have quality when right. Oaks winner from Queensland who resumes and I thought she moved well in her Hawkesbury trial. She’ll get back but should be charging at the end.

10 Cepheus (Bet Now: $20.00) deserves another chance I feel. His Aussie debut at Kembla was a beauty. Then he went to Randwick and just didn’t appreciate the bog, shifty track. Back on firmer footing and hard fit now, if he’s indeed going to measure up in good races, he has to be going close here.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Yearning

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 7 Outback Diva

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 12 Great House

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 8, 9

Leg Two: 2, 7

Leg Three: 1, 6, 8, 11, 12

Leg Four: 3, 4, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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