18/4/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WA Sires Produce Stakes day

A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday, where the feature races are the WA Sires Produce (1400m) and Western Australia Cup (3200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eleven metres for the entire circuit.

Neville Parnham had a couple nominated for this so I’ll cop the tip he goes with one runner in 11 Kirigami (Bet Now: $12.00), a filly who has had two career outings. Latest of those came at Pinjarra over 1200m when getting the dream sit off the speed and tried hard and did hit the line well, but no real dash when needed. Hopefully this is a truly run 1200m so she can be strong late.

10 Jaguar Grey (Bet Now: $2.35) resumes and I think she is a big watch here. Ran in some decent races when last in work, racing three times and wasn’t far off each time she stepped out, all of which have turned out to be strong form references. Just one soft 1000m trial leading in and is better suited over further, but does find a winnable maiden.

12 La Vina (Bet Now: $3.70) is a daughter of Artie Schiller for Lindsey Smith that resumes. Stable is going like a busted in Victoria but in WA is going a bit better. This filly is first up, having not raced since debuting over 1000m here in December when near the speed and battling away strongly when second to Little Miss Pro. Two trials leading in have been good and 1200m first up tells me enough work has been put in for her to go close first up.

2 Red Army (Bet Now: $2.10) looks the pony to bet on. He is racing as if he’ll eat up his rivals here the way he has attacked the line his past couple, the latest being the Pinjarra Cup when a fast finishing fourth to Spiritual Warrior. That was 2200m and with that hard run under the belt, should hold him in good stead for this event.

3 Superior Smile (Bet Now: $2.80) ran second in the Pinjarra Cup and gee he was gallant in defeat. Did a bit of work to get on speed and was entitled to drop away, but he kept finding under pressure and it took a real tough nut in Spiritual Warrior to get past him. Looks the leader again and I’m sure will look the winner for a long way.

The only other chance is 1 Western Temple (Bet Now: $4.50). He should love the rise to 2200m after racing here two weeks ago in the Old Comrade where he was pretty good from the back behind Media Baron. He’s racing as if further will suit, which he gets here, and does drop a fair bit in class/depth, plus with the claim, he’s likeable.

Pull in the weights and fitter, want to give 1 Kelvin (Bet Now: $4.40) another chance. Attempted to lead throughout over 1400m here two weeks ago and gave a decent enough kick. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Last Of The Line. Gets a massive 5kg weight swing on that horse here, looks the leader and should prove hard to get past.

2 Last Of The Line (Bet Now: $1.50) is a very interesting runner. Made a mess of them on debut over 1400m here before backing up a week later, jumping straight to 3YO company and he was sharp in winning again. I think 1500m will be okay for him, should have room for improvement and has early toe to overcome a tricky gate.

3 Divide The Sea (Bet Now: $8.00) was on the Derby path but after failing in the JC Roberts, the stable backed off and kept him to shorter trips. Ran over 1400m in the Last Of The Line race from two weeks ago and worked home okay without threatening. Think a rise to 1500m suits and and does get a good weight pull on Last Of The Line.

2 War Secrets (Bet Now: $5.50) on top for me. Talented galloper from Kalgoorlie that resumes for the Luke Fernie stable and this season, the stable is batting at 28% when producing them first up, including Indian Chant from last Saturday. Similar profile to this guy. Too good for them in Kalgoorlie and no other option but to run in town. I’ll be in his corner.

10 Wakan Tanka (Bet Now: $5.00) is on the quick back up for Neville Parnham after racing over 1200m here on Good Friday. Led and when Steve Parnham booted clear on him on the turn, it looked race over, but he was overhauled late by Point Taken. Interesting he backs up and comes back to 1000m, but if similar tactics are adopted here, he’ll go close.

4 Round The Point (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Steve Woife trained gelding that does tend to save his best these days for his home track at Albany but he has run well in town before. Just went way too keen in the run at Albany last start and couldn’t finish it off. Back to 1000m I really like for this guy, he’s hard fit and prior to last start, the form was strong.

5 Mervyn (Bet Now: $4.80) is the ideal jump/run type and 1000m is his A1 trip. Showed that two weeks ago when leading throughout here and gave nothing else a look in, showing very good sustained speed. More depth this time around, but he’s hard fit, in form, looks the leader and will give an almighty sight. Heart in the mouth last 100m.

10 Massimo (Bet Now: $1.70) is a quality three year old for Adam Durrant that resumes. Later in the year, he could easily be a leading local chance for the Winterbottom and Durrant does hold him in high regard. Impressive winner of the Placid Ark during the Carnival before a narrow second in the Lee Steere Classic. Two trials leading in have been good and he’ll be strong at the end.

3 Gee Boss (Bet Now: $15.00) is first up here for Michael Lane. Son of Street Boss that hasn’t raced since the Cyril Flower back in Feb 2019 when down the track behind Rebel King. Has had the one trial at Bunbury to prepare for his return, and does draw wide, so perhaps don’t back him to win, but definitely include in multiples.

3 Mr Kunafa (Bet Now: $4.80) is handling every challenge superbly at the moment. Lovely ride from Whiting saw him win over the mile two back before stepping up to 1800m a week later and finishing hard late to nab Adornment near the line. How strong is that form? I’m saying not that strong, but hard to knock a horse who is a line chaser.

9 Resistance (Bet Now: $12.00) has such an awful racing pattern but this Fred Kersley trained mare does have a decent engine on her. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago where, like usual, she got back to near last in the run and finished off strongly when fifth to Lorentinio, and once again clocked great late splits. The rise to 1600m I like. Just hope she can settle that bit closer in the run.

5 British Bessy (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Sharon Miller trained mare that resumes. Staying type that ran some good races in town in lesser class staying events during the Summer Carnival and actually wasn’t too bad in the Perth Cup. Resumes without a trial, but like she resumes at the mile. Not sure she wins, but think she’s one to watch.

10 Black Ducati (Bet Now: $5.50) has to be a leading chance here. Talented mare for Michael Lane that resumes, having not raced since October 26 over 1500m here when down the track behind Lorentinio but was a tired horse it seemed after a decent and busy prep. Given a good break and loved the way she went in a recent Bunbury trial. Hopefully is saved for sprint trips.

Hopefully the rub of the green goes the way of 2 Moschard (Bet Now: $4.00). You could say he resumed two weeks ago here, but really, it was another barrier trial. Was building up the revs okay nearer the inside until getting held up the final 100m. Should have finished closer I think. Fitter and up to 1200m, keen to see how he’s truly going because the trial prior was impressive.

6 Beauty Kanas (Bet Now: $17.00) is a So You Think mare who can mix her form but she looks to be in for a good prep based on her first up win over this track/distance five weeks ago when wide no cover on speed and really, was entitled to knock up, but she kept finding and was able to cling on. Like she’s had extra time off to recover from that run and gets run of the race from the gate.

1 Spiritual Warrior (Bet Now: $2.40) is a Justin Warwick trained stayer that is an absolute beauty. Has to lump 61kg for the two miles, which is such an incredible task, but he’s one tough bugger and loves to dig in, as we saw when winning the Pinjarra Cup. Somewhat almost threw it away when laying in but he was too good near the line. Leading chance.

7 He’s A Parker (Bet Now: $2.45) lacks the class of some of these, but he is racing as if he’ll handle the two miles. Comes through the Pinjarra Cup where he showed no real turn of foot when Parnham asked for the big effort, but he stayed on and wasn’t going backwards in a sound effort. Two miles should be okay and chuck him in exotics.

What to do with 2 Lord Fandango (Bet Now: $6.50). Lindsey Smith trains this gelding, who had his first run for the stable in the Pinjarra where he was a bit keen in the run behind the speed and didn’t have much left for the straight behind Spiritual Warrior. He does get better as the prep goes on and at his best, certainly can take this out.

The Karrakatta form has to be the A1 reference for this so going the way of 5 Watch Me Dance (Bet Now: $1.85), who ran second in the Karrakatta Plate. Was very good from the back when second to Ima Single Man, spotting them a decent start and working home strongly to just miss out on the win. From the inside gate, can settle closer in the run, hopefully, and if that happens, she should win.

6 American Choice (Bet Now: $4.60) is the other key runner from the Karrakatta leading into this. Ran sixth in that race after getting held up in the first half of the straight and should have finished closer without winning. Good lead that Pike remains on and the last couple of runs have suggested that 1400m should be okay for her.

7 Precautionary (Bet Now: $8.50) looks the knockout hope. On paper, it reads she finished 11/14 in the Karrakatta Plate but should have finished much closer. Blocked for pretty much the entire straight and when clear made ground under her own steam. She’s always looked a juvenile that wants further, which she gets here. Just hope they’re positive in the run.

2 Indian Chant (Bet Now: $4.20), barring bad luck, is one of the better bets on the card. Peter Fernie trains this galloper, who is absolutely flying at the moment, winning two on the bounce in impressive fashion at Kalgoorlie before going to this track/distance two weeks ago and I loved his change up speed when Pateman asked for the big effort. Confident he can go on with it.

6 Ocean’s Fifteen (Bet Now: $3.20) is a Chris Gangemi trained galloper that has returned in good order but in terms of a betting proposition, he’s becoming costly. Ran a narrow second to Beauty Kanas as favourite first up before racing three weeks ago over 1200m here and got close to beating Cryptic Love but had to settle for second, and was heavily backed, so running out of chances, but clearly up to 1400m is a big tick.

Big watch on 5 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $5.50), a Michael Lane trained gelding that resumes. Hasn’t raced since November 28 over the mile on his home track at Bunbury when second to Burning Pride, who at the time was flying. Better suited over a bit further, but the recent trial was strong and good lead is that Pike is booked for the resumption.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 2 Indian Chant

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Red Army

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 5 Mervyn

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 2

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