18/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

A strong nine race program has been assembled for Flemington this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Looks to be good value in this race and I reckon there is a bet here, hopefully at each way odds, in the shape of the Robbie Laing trained 4 Fabulanski (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS). Has finished fifth in both career runs to date, debuting with a good fifth behind subsequent Stakes winner Absolute Flirt at Sandown before remaining at 1000m last time out at Cranbourne where he got out far too late but loved the way he ran to the line and through it. Being by Polanski, 1400m looks perfect and has enormous upside.

7 La Lucciola (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained filly who was kept pretty safe in betting when debuting down the straight here two weeks ago and I thought she found the line pretty well in defeat behind Moldova. Think 1400m and on a bending track will suit her ideally, she gets a soft run from the gate and this doesn’t appear to be an overly strong race for the babies.

1400m on the big track should suit the Tony McEvoy trained 3 The Pugilist (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS). This bloke was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1050m at Balaklava last Wednesday where you could easily make a case that he should have won. Just had no luck in the straight when Vorster wanted to get clear air. Eventually did get clear, surged and just missed. Does appeal at 1400m.

3 Special Alert (Bet Now: $61.00 TOP ODDS) on top but it’s really a race I don’t want to get involved. Andrew Noblet trains this mare, who took on the boys first up at this track/distance when wide no cover and battling away well in defeat behind Fastnet Tempest. Back to mares grade, a pretty thin mares race IMO, and with a stack of upside under the belt, with good form, she goes on top.

2 Ocean Deep (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is a hard fit/in form mare for the Hayes/Dabernig stable that ran over 1400m at Caulfield three weeks ago when taking on the boys and aided by a lovely steer from Luke Nolen, she just got the win. Form out of that has been franked by Renewal, who bolted up in Sydney a week later. 1400m probably sees her right out, but at this level, she should be fine.

Want to give 4 So Far Sokool (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS)  another chance. Good resumption on Terang Cup Day behind Indian Thunder before going to the Warrnambool Carnival where she was awful behind Curragh, perhaps not handling the sticky track and the market knew it, because she ended up starting close to $5 after opening just under $3. Back on firmer footing, she can bounce back.

2 Bandipur (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is in a real purple patch of form at the moment for James Cummings. Lovely ride from Linda Meech got him home two back at Caulfield before racing at this track/distance on Anzac Day where he was given an arrogant steer by Williams and won accordingly, with that form being franked by Order Of Command. Has carried 60kg to win in the past, so don’t see the weight being an issue.

Fresh and straight track racing looks the formula for 6 Superhard (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS). Such an impressive first up winner down the straight before a couple of inglorious runs to follow. Been given a month off, the tongue tie goes on and he draws to sit back, get to the outside and launch. If he brings the effort he did first up, he probably wins…but just happy to watch at this stage.

4 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is going to win one of these races…but as a punter, you’d need deep pockets to keep diving in. He resumed at this track/distance on Anzac Day and for mine, he had every chance to win, but just found Bandipur too good on the day. He’s got the awful racing pattern of flopping out the back and flashing late. If the breaks go his way, he can win…but I couldn’t back him.

3 Big Night Out (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is a few weeks between runs for the John Sadler stable after racing at this track/distance on Anzac Day where he tried hard to get the win from off the pace but had to settle for second to Zoutori, who franked the form by bolting up last Saturday. Would love this bloke at a mile now, but I think he’s got the class/quality to overcome that potential negative.

1 Outrageous (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is a Team Hawkes trained three year old who is a few weeks between runs since racing in the same race mentioned above won by Zoutori when going along at a decent clip in front and just tiring late. Form out of that has been really good and despite drawing wide, he does have the speed to cross and will be in it for a long way I’m sure.

9 More Bricks (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) had trialled up really well for the Paul Preusker stable prior to resuming in the VOBIS Dash at Caulfield where I thought he was poorly placed at that level and ran okay, but for the most part, didn’t measure up, behind Halvorsen. Like him up to 1400m, gets down in the weights after the claim, and off the trials, he looked to be flying IMO.

9 Begood Toya Mother (Bet Now: $1.70) is facing his toughest test to date here but gee he’s likeable. 3/3 this time in, the latest coming at the midweeks at Sandown when lumping 59kg and dashing right away for a dominant win, and that form has been franked, like it has been in each of the wins this prep. He lands on speed, he can sprint despite doing work…like him alot.

I reckon 11 Enbihaar (Bet Now: $8.50) is ticking over quite well for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Both runs have come over 1100m at Caulfield this time in. Resumption behind Lady Pluck was decent before taking on better class rivals in the VOBIS Dash and running on okay late behind Halvorsen. She’s racing as if she wants further, which she gets now, and in a tricky race, she’ll be a threat for sure.

4 Kentucky Breeze (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Pierro resuming for the Levi Kavanagh stable. This bloke has been a bit of an enigma for some time, but towards the end of last prep, he did seem race a bit better. 1400m first up tells me he’s ready to go first up and his recent jumpouts indicate he’s just about forward enough. Gate one helps, he’s a knockout chance.

2 Fidelia (Bet Now: $2.35) is a Robbie Griffiths trained filly who has really gone on with at her past couple. Showed a good turn of foot when clear to win two back at Sandown before racing over 1400m here where she was wide with cover before peeling wider and finishing off really strongly to get the job done. Off that, the 1600m should be fine for her and she’s one of the hardest to beat.

Back to the mile will suit the Chris Waller trained 1 Sure Knee (Bet Now: $4.00). Pushed Princess Jenni all the way two back over the mile at Caulfield before going to the SA Oaks where she just got too far back in the run and was never a winning factor behind the same filly. Back to 1600m, should be good speed in front, hopefully Froggy can get her three wide cover and launch.

6 Tysonic (Bet Now: $9.00) is three weeks between runs for Chris Waller after racing in the Princess Jenni race at Caulfield mentioned above. This girl didn’t have much luck in the run when seemingly having something to offer and should have finished closer instead of seventh, beaten 3.5L. Flemington should suit, she draws well…if she gets clear air at the right time, could be dangerous.

2 Phoneme (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who does look extremely well suited at 2000m third up. Got a definite pass mark first up at Caulfield behind Tarwin before racing over the mile here a fortnight ago against the older horses where he was unlucky and should have finished closer behind Sunday Pray. Just wants to get to the outside for clear air and build momentum and he’ll be a threat.

A few of these come through the 1700m race here on Anzac Day with a host of unlucky runs, one of which was 1 Declares War (Bet Now: $5.00). He’s threatening and teasing to win a race and potentially more so I’ll go his way up in trip. He was coming into the race really nicely before getting stopped in his tracks. Got out and going but then got held up again in a horror show. Hopefully gets clear air to wind into his work. If so, he’ll be hard to beat.

14 El Vincitore (Bet Now: $16.00) is a horse on the up for the Maher/Eustace team. He was a notable drifter in betting last time out in a maiden during the Warrnambool Carnival buthe defied the betting drift and proved too good over 1700m. On first look, the depth didn’t look great, but there’s already been two winners to come out of the race and he does seem a horse who will like 2000m on a big track.

11 Spanner Head (Bet Now: $4.40) with the light weight, will do me. Was keen on this mare when she resumed in the VOBIS Distaff at Caulfield and did a really good job off a slow speed to run a closing second to Twitchy Frank. Really good second up record, saves her best for Flemington and with only 52kg on her back for an in form Michael Poy, she appeals as a winning chance.

8 Shoko (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented mare for John Sadler resuming. This mare somewhat came of age in the Spring, highlighted by her on speed win in the Tesio on Cox Plate Day. 1400m fresh tells me she’s forward enough for a first up win and did look pretty good to my eye in a jumpout recently at Caulfield. Interesting to see what the market does with her.

3 Mr Marathon (Bet Now: $14.00) Man does look the one at silly odds here. Made his Australian debut for the Mike Moroney stable in the Wangoom and I thought his effort was very good in a race dominated by those either near the speed or rail. He really only got going late but his finale and past the line was encouraging. Like him up to 1400m on firmer footing, and this isn’t the strongest race going around.

3 Pacodali (Bet Now: $5.00) looks just about ready to win for mine. He was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1800m a fortnight back where he loomed to win the race but I think his condition just gave out late when fourth to Mantastic. 2/2 at this track/distance and now third up from a spell, he should just about be ready fitness wise. Tough race, but I’ll be in his corner.

6 Second Bullet (Bet Now: $6.00) has been a ripping campaigner for Danny O’Brien for a while and continues to race well. He ran over the 1700m here on Anzac Day where he got a mile back in the run but finished off strongly to run a close up fourth to Dark Eyes, with Mantastic franking that form. Subsequent trial was pretty good to the eye and up to 2000m is a big tick.

I think up to 2000m will really suit the Nick Ryan trained 7 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $7.50). Ran over the mile at Caulfield last Saturday where the tempo wasn’t hot, and given he was back in the run, he pretty much had no chance. If the tempo is more genuine this time around, up in trip, he is a knockout chance. If it’s a crawl, he will find it difficult like he did two back behind Mr Quickie.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 9 Begood Toya Mother

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Fidelia

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 2 Phoneme

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 14

Leg Three: 3, 8, 9, 11

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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