18/7/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

A nine race meeting has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

A 1000m horse for a 1000m race for me in the shape of 5 Irish Mint (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS), who is flying this time in for the Jolly camp. Has won 2/2 this prep, the latest coming three weeks ago on the Parks track at Morphettville when surging hard late to get up and win. Nine of his ten career wins have come at 1000m and stable finds Olly to steer.

Class will carry 1 Ashlor (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) a long way despite his record down the straight not being too flash. Ran last Saturday in the Sir John Monash and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Jungle Edge, the best swimmer in Australia. The claim gets him down to 61kg, so he’s well in, in that regard. Just a query on whether or not he handles the straight course.

6 Mister Mogul (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a 1000m horse and we know it’s a specialist trip for certain horses. Mister Mogul fits that criteria. He was an impressive winner at this track/distance four weeks ago under a lovely ride from Poy. He’ll lead this field up you would assume and with a bit of weight relief, he’ll give a bold sight I’m sure.

Wasn’t hard to find the luckless resumption of 4 Proper Rogue (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) three weeks back at Caulfield. He was behind a good speed and looked to be bolting, but the leaders fell in a hole and he got badly help, not being able to build any momentum at all and should have won. Olly on, drawn out, he’ll get clear air and get his chance.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 6 Wilmot Pass (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS), an Anthony Freedman trained three year old that resumed at Caulfield three weeks ago and worked home strongly in an unsuitable race behind Lucifer’s Reward. He is a second up winner and should love the extra furlong. Hopefully can sit a bit closer in the run.

10 Sea Dragon (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Statue Of Liberty for Mick Kent that resumes. This three year old hasn’t raced since Feb 28 at the Valley when a strong third to Overkill after sitting wide no cover on speed in a game effort. His Cranbourne jumpouts have been pretty solid to the eye and I think is a leading chance here fresh.

1 Alcyone (Bet Now: $1.50 TOP ODDS) to win this and confirm his spot in the Victoria Derby. Very promising juvenile for James Cummings that produced excellent late splits two back before contesting the Taj Rossi Final where the turn of foot Cherry Tortini produced was the difference between winning and losing. Alcyone was very good and strong to/through the line. Eats up 1800m here and clearly the one to beat.

4 Mr Wolf (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) has his share of talent for the McEvoy team. Debuted with a strong win at Murray Bridge before going to Balaklava where he was a bit one paced when the sprint went on but picked up and was good late. He’s racing as if he will eat up the 1800m here and overall, this isn’t an overly strong race.

3 Johnny Get Angry (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) has got plenty of upside to come. He’s got a spotlight on him given he’s trained by former champion AFL coach Denis Pagan and Pago looks to have a handy juvenile here. Was $101+ in the Taj Rossi Final and stayed on quite well in defeat, finishing third to Cherry Tortoni. No way he’ll be $101 this time around.

I reckon there is a good each way gamble here in the shape of 7 Shokora (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS). She’s three weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Caulfield on a day where being on speed was the A1 spot to be, so didn’t mind the way she found the line out wide against the track pattern. Back to Mares grade and back to 1400m, can see her sitting three wide with cover and finishing hard late.

1 Laburnum (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) has come back well for James Cummings. Found the wet track not to her liking first up at Rosehill so the stable sent her to Caulfield a few weeks ago and she didn’t have much luck in the straight behind She’s A Thief, which looks a tricky race on paper to sort out with confidence, but she’s got the progression and upside compared to most.

The best version of 2 Mystery Love (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is certainly capable. Price/Kent trained mare that is three weeks between runs since racing at Caulfield where she was back against the track pattern and was never really a winning threat behind She’s A Thief. Like her up to 1400m, draws soft and with the claim for German, she gets in well.

I’m going to give 5 South Pacific (Bet Now: $3.60) another chance. Made his Australian debut three weeks ago at Caulfield over 2000m where I was keen on his chances but just when he was trying to build the revs, he got squeezed up and lost all momentum and from then, it was a barrier trial. Like him up in trip and also like that Olly sticks.

4 Alfarris (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained gelding that was terrible two back, but was found to be lame and ridden far too warm. Nolen got back on, rode him cold two weeks ago and he all but got there, getting nailed in the last couple of strides by Lord Belvedere. Prior to the run two back, he was ready to win. Is he ready to win now?

Fitness certainly won’t be an issue with 2 Ventura Storm (Bet Now: $21.00), who I dare say will be using this run to keep ticking over for a jumps race in the not too distant future. Last run saw him make his Hurdle debut and he took a while to assert his authority but on the line he did. Can he win? I’d say no, but a sneaky first four chance.

I’m a big fan of 15 Over The Sky (Bet Now: $5.50). Above average colt for the in form Price/Kent team. Visually, not a flash maiden win on the Synthetic at Pakenham. Thrown into the deep end when contesting the Silver Bowl Final and I think he was ridden poorly by Mick Dee. Instead of coming wide, stuck nearer the inside for luck and got little. He’s a good horse and think he can atone for last start.

1 Right You Are (Bet Now: $3.80) has the upside to come for the Price/Kent team and despite coming back to 1600m is hard to beat. Loved his effort behind Persan at Flemington four weeks back was really good. Seemingly had his chance, but the winner was hard fit and ready to go. Right You Are is hard fit now and seems to have a bit of quality about him.

You could say that 3 Alphaville (Bet Now: $11.00) ran in the Silver Bowl Final two weeks ago…but really, it was a barrier trial for him. One of the best 11ths you’ll see. He was hard held throughout in a pocket and couldn’t get clear at any stage. Clearly should have finished closer and with better luck this time around, he can win.

I think the firmer track will be music to the ears of 5 Romancer (Bet Now: $16.00). He has been plagued by wet tracks for the most part this prep but he has run okay without winning. Comes through the Winter Championship Final when near a hot speed and battled away well behind Sircconi. Think he can run a bold race here at odds.

7 Danon Roman (Bet Now: $3.90) has been a bit hit and miss since coming to Australia from Japan but this prep, he can be trusted. Excellent resumption here before going to Flemington four weeks ago where he had to make a sustained run to chase a good speed and I thought he was impressive in winning despite not appearing that to the eye. He can win again.

The best version of 6 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $10.00) is certainly capable. The Maher/Eustace stable trains this gelding, who resumed in the Morrissy race from a few weeks back at Caulfield where he was another not suited by the track pattern so be forgiving of that resumption. Normally gets better deeper into the prep, but has run well at Flemington before and finds a winnable race.

Think there is more to come with 9 Bartholemeu Dias (Bet Now: $3.60) for the Maher/Eustace team. Was very good fresh at Caulfield behind All Too Huiying when nearer the inside, which was quicksand for the meeting. Then went to 1800m at Sandown and was arrogant from near the speed under Williams in winning, and he remains on for this race. Hard to beat.

10 Creedence (Bet Now: $4.80) is likeable here for sure. He comes through the Mirimar race from Caulfield where he worked home well out wide, which that afternoon was near impossible to do, so the effort had plenty of merit to it. This horse is flying since joining Matt Cumani and off the back of last start, has to be hard to beat.

8 Polly Grey (Bet Now: $9.50) is a former Kiwi mare for Chris Waller that didn’t set the world on fire first up behind Great Duchess before going to the Winter Championship Final when a rank outsider but she ran well and stuck to the task strongly when second to Sircconi. Third up now, so should be close to peak fitness and prove a leading contender.

Back on firmer footing, I think 12 Sakura (Bet Now: $11.00) can bounce back into the winners list. Little while out of the winners circle and yet to win this prep, but for the most part has been plagued by wet tracks, including last time out at Caulfield behind She’s A Thief. Like her up to 1200m and getting on top of the ground, hard to beat I feel.

Concede 17 Pinyin (Bet Now: $3.60) is hard to beat and a leading chance…but you couldn’t possibly back her to win at around $3.50. She just has such an awful racing pattern, which was clear to see at Sandown last time, tailed off and it looked as though something was amiss, but she picked up like Winx and rocketed to the line. Olly on, draws out…can win, but too short.

I think 1 Price Range (Bet Now: $27.00) can run a big race here at odds for the Maher/Eustace team. Former French galloper that has had two Australian runs, both at Caulfield. Went like a skunk fresh behind Heptagon. Had a tick over jumpout and went great so I gave him a chance at odds last start and he loomed like he was going to be dangerous, but the bias was against him and he flattened out. Think this is good placement by the stable and is definitely each way value.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 1 Alcyone

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 15 Over The Sky

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 Shokora

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 15

Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 7

Leg Three: 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 12, 17

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful