18/9/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby Trial day

A strong eight race program has been set down for Flemington on Sunday, headlined by the Previews for both the Derby and Oaks. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out fourteen metres for the entire circuit.

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11 Port Philip (Bet Now: $2.50) has done an excellent job since joining Julius Sandhu and confident he measures up. Broke the maiden in style two back over the mile at Cranbourne before repeating the dose at Mornington when stepping up to 2000m and giving them a spanking. He’ll have no issue with the trip and this stable should be respected when they come to town.

7 Token Spirit (Bet Now: $7.00) has a good record at Flemington and gets C Williams steering so has a bit in his corner. His last couple of runs have come on the Synthetic at Pakenham, the latest behing Unique Artist, who won yesterday at Caulfield, so the form has been ticked off and I do think the rise in trip suits.

6 Secret Sheema (Bet Now: $13.00) is going well enough to be a key threat. She wasn’t too bad at Sandown two back before going to Cranbourne where she ran a game third after looming to win. She’s carried 57.5kg twice and 59.5kg last time, so she’s a proven weight carrier and should be around the mark.

5 Parisian Dancer (Bet Now: $8.00) is a good fresh horse and in a tricky race, I am leaning her way. She hasn’t raced since July 13 at Sandown when wide no cover for the trip and tiring late behind the very much in form Fengarada. Jumpout to get ready was good, suited at 1800m and loves getting her toe in.

6 Sky Horse (Bet Now: $4.80) is flying for Michelle Payne and deserves a crack at metro level. She is looking to make it three on the bounce after wins at Cranbourne and Bendigo respectively, where each time she has been dominant from near the speed. Gets in really well after the claim and swims, so she’s hard to beat.

4 Minola (Bet Now: $7.50) has been up forever it seems like but gee she’s racing well. She is suited back to 1800m IMO. She ran over 2500m at Murray Bridge last time out and for mine, the trip was just a bridge too far at metro level behind Lord Bouzeron. Back to Mares grade and back to 1800m, she can run an improved race.

The connections of 2 Elkington Road (Bet Now: $4.40) are well and truly cooking with gas if this horse can live up to the debut win. That came over 1200m at Sandown and gee he lapped up the wet conditions, spanking them and running really good late splits. 1400m looks fine, trained on the track, stable flying…has to be respected.

3 Dashing (Bet Now: $6.00) is in with a shout. He resumed at Casterton where he led throughout, got control and gave nothing else a look in, bolting up. Did he beat up much? Probably not, but he showed good promise when last in work and with his racing style, he’ll run a bold race.

5 Shambo (Bet Now: $17.00) is a knockout hope. Several weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Sandown when tailed off out the back and struggling but he picked up late and was very good late behind a Stakes class animal in Grand Impact. Like him up to 1400m and a win wouldn’t shock at all.

6 Cardinal Gem (Bet Now: $3.30) looks to have a bit on these IMO. He resumed over this trip at Caulfield where he got a fair way back in the run and was very good late in the piece when a close up third to Munhamek. Yet to win at Flemington but he’s a Flemington horse and with the claim, getting good cover, and launching late.

13 Thought Provoking (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Price/Kent trained mare that resumes. She had a pretty solid Autumn prep, which ended with a strong win over 2200m at Sale on the Good Friday meeting. Better suited over further but sprints well fresh and J Kah booked fresh tells me there is intent.

16 Inverell (Bet Now: $10.00) is a very hard horse to catch but his best is clearly good enough. He resumes for Clayton Douglas and both wins have come when produced first up. They’ve tried to get him to 2000m+ but perhaps 1400/1600m is his go in life. Jumpout work has been strong, so watch the market.

4 Hyacinth (Bet Now: $10.00) is a filly I have time for and I think she will love a rise to 1800m. Broke the maiden tag over 1400m at Echuca last start and what I loved about the win is that when the race got further, she got better and really attacked the line. The rise to 1800m should be fine, she’s in the right camp and the depth is quite thin.

1 Uncorked (Bet Now: $5.50) took a little while to break the maiden tag but it finally came over the mile at Sandown last start. Blake Shinn got complete control in front on the filly and she was never getting beat. 1800m, I think, will be okay, and Tim Clark is a gun on front runners.

8 So Dazzling (Bet Now: $4.40) is a filly that I don’t think can win this race but she can win the Oaks. She debuted in a strong maiden at Warwick Farm at the midweeks and was very good late from the back behind Scientist, clocking very good late splits. Up to 1800m, enormous upside, she’ll be strong late.

1800m looks ideal for 1 Major Beel (Bet Now: $2.40) and with T Clark back on, he just looks the winner. He was very good in defeat at The Valley last time. Was wide throughout, chasing a good speed, and kept finding the line when second to Castillian. 1800m looks ideal, he’ll lead, he’ll get control and I think he’ll just kick on too strongly.

I don’t think 3 Final Overture (Bet Now: $8.00) can win this but I think he can win the Derby. It is all upside, upside, upside with him. He had no right to win the maiden at Mornington last time. He was last on the turn but picked up and launched late to win in remarkable fashion. Eats up 1800m and will be very strong late.

5 Highland Harley (Bet Now: $41.00) is an interesting runner. Liam Howley trained three year old that resumes, having not raced since the Fernhill at Randwick when producing an end of prep run behind Williamsburg. Just one trial to get ready but 1800m fresh tells me he’s ready to go.

I’m not penning 4 Equation (Bet Now: $15.00). Condition just blew out late fresh behind Yukon before racing at Randwick again where he was hard up on the fence and that was just not the spot to be at all. Hard fit now and with the 3kg claim, I think his best is good enough to take this out.

2 Gunstock (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Price/Kent trained four year old first up and dangerous. He has been given a long break, with his last run coming here last year when down the track in the Victoria Derby. His trial work has been quite encouraging and he is bred to eat up a wet track.

1 He’s Our Bonneval (Bet Now: $9.50) drops a fair bit in depth for the Busuttin/Young team. His last start came at The Valley just over two weeks back when far from disgraced behind Pounding on a day where sitting back and running on wasn’t the idea pattern. If he brings his best, he’s right in the mix.

1100m is on the short side for 1 Decent Raine (Bet Now: $4.50) but she has lengths on these in terms of class. She had a such a busy campaign when last in work, pretty much going through the Winter until the Autumn this year when fourth in the Angus Armanasco. Couple of jumpouts to get ready and drawn out, so she’ll be in the right part of the track, and gets in very well at the weights.

7 Joyful Fortune (Bet Now: $1.50) at $1.50…really? Formerly raced in Hong Kong, he now finds himself with Mark Newnham. Interesting he resumes here but the reason for that is when he raced in Hong Kong, he raced best down the straight at Sha Tin. Trials have been sharp, but $1.50 is way too short. Watch the market, because I suspect he’ll almost double in price.

17 Va Via (Bet Now: $5.50) is a key chance. She takes on the older horses but drops miles in grade/depth given her last run came in the Atlantic Jewel when far from disgraced behind stablemate Troach. I reckon 1200m+ sees her right out so back to 1100m, hard fit with J Kah, she appeals.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Major Beel

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Elkington Road

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 5 Parisian Dancer

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 10

Leg Four: 1, 7, 13, 14, 17

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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