19/10/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Hill Smith Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Morphettville this Saturday for Hill Smith Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Hill Smith Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Hill Smith Stakes

5 Schroder’s Mistake (Bet Now: $4.00) looks a nice horse for Clarken/O’Shea and confident he can debut with a win here. He trialled a couple of weeks back at Strathalbyn and for mine, moved very well in winning his trial, in solid enough time too. The stable can get them ready fresh so keen to see how he goes.

9 Lady Skylla (Bet Now: $11.00) will appreciate a rise to 1200m for David Jolly. She resumed two weeks ago over 1050m here where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, she did make up ground and was pretty good in defeat. If she can settle closer, she’s dangerous for sure I say.

4 Montana State (Bet Now: $31.00) ran in the 1050m maiden from two weeks back here. He got a fair way out of his ground and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up ground and was a definite pass mark. Like him up to 1200m and will be strong late. Knockout hope.

3 Dreams Fulfilled (Bet Now: $19.00) is the way I am leaning for Andrew Gluyas. He has been strong in two runs this time in, resuming with a start and a beating performance fresh at Murray Bridge before going to Balaklava when off the speed and kept finding in a pretty good effort behind The Stalker. Up to 1200m I like and he gets in really well after the claim.

8 Out Of Square (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a filly that has an engine under the hood. She debuted three weeks ago over 1000m on the Parks track where she got back in the run and while she was never threatening, she kept chasing and was quite good in defeat. Like her up to 1200m, she’ll be strong late and has good upside.

6 Royal Majesty (Bet Now: $8.00) is a daughter of Royal Meeting that resumes for Chris Bieg. This girl is first up, having not raced since June 15 over 1200m at Murray Bridge when placing behind Colmar, who is one of the better 3YO’s trained in SA. Looked sharp in a trial win so I say watch the market.

6 Discreetly Blue (Bet Now: $6.00) can put his hand up for the Victoria Derby with a win here. I thought his opening two runs were very encouraging hence why the stable threw him in the deep end in the Stutt Stakes at The Valley where he didn’t quite measure up behind Evaporate. Back to this level I like, as well as the rise in distance, and off prior efforts, he can certainly take this out.

1 Goldrush Guru (Bet Now: $2.70) is a handy three year old for Andrew Gluyas that has talent but I still think is 6 months away mentally. He looks a big boy that has the engine but doesn’t know how to race properly as of yet. He ran two weeks ago here and kept chasing Athanatos in a game effort but that horse led throughout and was too good. Up to 1800m I like and this race isn’t deep re overall depth.

8 Cavity Bay (Bet Now: $3.70) is one I can entertain for wider exotics. She comes through the Edward Manifold from two weeks back at Flemington where she got back in the run and made up some headway without threatening behind Too Darn Discreet. Not sure I could back her to win but for exotics she can be entertained.

4 Merchant Boss (Bet Now: $4.60) is in a purple patch and he can continue it here. He was a narrow second two back at Morphettville Parks before going to Mount Gambier last Wednesday where he looked a good thing on paper and was impressive, giving them a start and a beating in a sharp display. He can win again.

1 Bit Of A Rebel (Bet Now: $11.00) was knocking on the door to win and now he’s found winning form, he can go on with it. That win came in the Mindarie-Halidon Cup, leading throughout and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure. Hard fit and in form, he appeals as a key chance.

8 Submerge (Bet Now: $81.00) is an interesting runner. He was formerly with Andrew Homann where he prepped without racing but now finds himself with Garret Lynch. He is better suited over slightly further but 1600m fresh signals some form of intent to my eye and the stable can get them ready fresh so watch the market.

15 Beauty Bound (Bet Now: $6.50) looks the one. Phillip Stokes trained mare that resumed at Murray Bridge when wide with cover throughout before angling clear and knuckled down with purpose but just found one better, just, in Mintulee. Better for the run under the belt and with a touch of class, I think she’s the one to beat.

8 Mercury Eight (Bet Now: $11.00) was racing well without winning but that all changed last time at Balaklava, leading throughout and was strong to the line, ending up being quite dominant late in the piece. He does seem suited at the short course, and with his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

3 Fashion Dog (Bet Now: $27.00) is a Francis/Kent trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since July 6 at Gawler when down the track behind Everglade, who was flying at the time. Has trialled well for his return and has run well in town before so watch the market.

6 Howl (Bet Now: $17.00) is bursting to win. He should have won three weeks ago at Morphettville Parks but was given an all time slaughter by Stubby, getting badly held up instead of peeling wider for clear air. He eventually got clear and charged late, just missing out on a placing. If the breaks go his way, I think good luck beating him.

5 Deepfloat Diva (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Team Jolly trained gelding that is heading in the right direction and should prove hard to beat here. He has won two on the bounce, the latest being five weeks ago over 1100m here when getting the suck run in transit before being presented and he got better as the race went on to win and win well. Hard to beat once again.

4 The Great Baby (Bet Now: $12.00) resumes for Francis/Kent and is dangerous I say. He is first up, having not raced since June 15 when a strong all the way winner at Murray Bridge over 1200m, giving nothing else a look in from the front in quite a dominant display. He can sprint well fresh and his recent Strathalbyn trial was a good piece of work. Watch the market.

9 Kova (Bet Now: $18.00) has done little wrong this time in for Team Cahill. This mare looked hard to beat when she ran at Mildura last time and despite a few nervous moments, she knuckled down with purpose late to win and win well. That was 1000m and she was strong late so the rise to 1100m is fine and is hard to beat.

1 Vintage Star (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Team Jolly trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since July 13 at Murray Bridge when racing over 1100m. He was on speed and seemingly had his chance when fourth to a nice horse, Hajra. He does go well on the fresh side and seems to have found a winnable race.

10 Sabermetric (Bet Now: $16.00) is an interesting runner. Richards/Moyle trained gelding that ran over 1000m a few weeks back on the Parks track when wide throughout and that early burn just told on him late in the piece but he was far from disgraced behind Old Time Rock. Not sure he wins, but a first four threat.

11 Nurys (Bet Now: $12.00) is flying for David Huxtable and has to be respected. This girl is four weeks between runs since racing over 1250m on the Parks track, getting the suck run behind the speed before saving ground nearer the inside, drove hard late and was too good. Career best form and I say commands respect as a key winning chance.

8 Classy Kenny (Bet Now: $34.00) should appreciate a rise to 1200m. He ran over 1050m here two weeks back where he got back, run off his legs, and while he was never threatening, he did make up ground and was solid enough in defeat behind Sixteen Reasons. Better set up here, I am not penning him.

13 Harley’N’Rose (Bet Now: $35.00) is a very interesting runner. Richards/Moyle trains this son of Holler who has the talent to be Saturday class, but at times, he has been quite disappointing and let punters down. He is better suited over a touch further but has trialled well leading in and can sprint well fresh.

8 Big Story (Bet Now: $7.50) is a query at 2000m but he does bring solid enough Victorian form. He ran over the trip at Ballarat last time where he got back, with cover, but tracked into the race and loomed to win but couldn’t quite get there behind Queen Takes King. He does have the 2000m run under the belt and gets Nunes to steer.

1 Tippa (Bet Now: $3.80) is two weeks between runs for Team Cahill after racing over 1800m at Morphettville when on speed and tried hard but had no answers late when third to Motorace. I think 2000m is fine, he has a good racing style and I think has a touch more upside to come.

4 Crimson Vine (Bet Now: $17.00) has the runs on the board to say she is hard to beat. She ran two weeks back over 1800m here when off the speed and kept finding the line in a pretty good effort behind Motorace. Hard fit and up to 2000m, with class, I say she is one of the leading contenders.

BEST BET: Race One Number 5 Schroder’s Mistake

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 15 Beauty Bound

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 6 Howl

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1, 3, 9, 10

Leg Three: 6, 8, 11, 13

Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 10, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful