19/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ballarat, Ballarat Cup day

Ballarat will host their biggest raceday on Saturday where it is Ballarat Cup Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Hypothetical (Bet Now: $2.35) should take beating here for Team Freedman. Lovely ride from Melham saw her win fresh on Geelong Cup Day before going to Flemington two weeks ago where she ran down the straight and was solid after being near the speed behind the well tried Snapper. Proven at 1200m, hard fit now and has the good racing style to give this a shake.

7 Devils Triangle (Bet Now: $10.00) deserves another look. Totally forgiving of her run behind I Am Me at Rosehill. She was back in a race where those in front ran a tick over 33 for the last 600m. Devils Triangle is a good mare, but she’s not that good. If the tempo is more genuine, she can bounce back.

11 Defining (Bet Now: $5.50) is a quality mare for Team McEvoy that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since May 21 over 1400m at Flemington when back near last in the run and worked home well without threatening behind Kir Royale. Couple of strong jumpouts to get ready and stable does fly on their home deck here.

Third up from a spell, 1 Kings Consort (Bet Now: $3.40) should just about be ready to rock and roll. This gelding comes through a 1400m race two weeks ago at Flemington and while he was never really a threat, I liked the way he finished his race off behind Magic Time. Hard fit now, has the 1400m run under the belt, he appeals.

2 El Padrino (Bet Now: $3.70) is a hard horse to follow and trust with confidence but his best is good enough to be around the mark. He ran behind Magic Time a fortnight back at Flemington and was solid late despite having his chance to win. Not sure I could back him to win, but he commands respect.

3 Deekay (Bet Now: $2.80) deserves a crack in a race like this. 2/2 this time in, bolting up each run. Resumed and spanked them on the Pakenham Synthetic before going to Bendigo Cup Day where he produced sustained speed from the front and was miles too good. Good test here, but think he can measure up.

9 Malaboom (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Matty Dale trained filly that is on debut and looks prepped right up for a first up assault. Her trial win came at Warwick Farm around a month ago where she seemed to move very well I thought under Collett and ran good time for the morning. Draws wide, but should slide forward and stable rarely misfires when coming to Victoria.

3 Sunsource (Bet Now: $9.00) is an interesting runner. Busuttin/Young colt that has had a couple of jumpouts here to get ready for start one, the latest coming last Monday when back near last in the run and worked home nicely under riding, but I like seeing that he responds when asked for an effort. Watch the market.

7 Dubenenko (Bet Now: $21.00) has good racing experience under the belt, which should hold her in good stead. She’s had two career outings, the latest at Flemington on Oaks Day when somewhat unlucky albeit was never threatening dominant winner Charm Stone. She’ll be strong late I think.

Think 9 Ice Pick Nick (Bet Now: $3.90) can resume a winner. Maher/Eustace four year old that resumes, having not raced since May 14 at Flemington when far from disgraced in defeat behind subsequent Stakes performer Jimmy The Bear. Given a good break and won a recent Cranbourne jumpout in good style. Has quality, should slide forward and prove hard to beat.

Best version of 13 Viviane (Bet Now: $9.50) sees her go close IMO. Matty Ellerton trained mare that has been kept on ice since failing to beat a runner home over 1000m at The Valley on September 30 when seemingly not pulling up 100%. Two jumpouts to get ready have been sharp and her best is pretty good and good enough to win a race like this.

3 La Caresse (Bet Now: $16.00) comes here with relatively fresh legs, around a month between runs since racing on Moe Cup Day on a testing track and stuck to the task well enough behind Do Ya Punk. He races best on the fresh side and I think firmer footing is a big tick.

5 Beltoro (Bet Now: $8.00) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets a great chance here. Caught the eye late first up on Geelong Cup Day behind Maximus Prime before going to Flemington where he worked to the line strongly late when second to the very much in form French Emperor. Third up now, so should be hard fit and finds a winnable race.

Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks for 9 The Cunning Fox (Bet Now: $15.00). He resumed in the Subzero on Cup Day at Flemington in a somewhat messy race but worked to the line well enough I thought behind Love Tap. Like him up in trip…may one want more, but has a touch of quality.

17 Our Redente (Bet Now: $6.50) has had a busy first prep but he seems to be getting better as the prep goes on. Jerome Hunter trained gelding that has race over 1400m his past couple, the latest seeing him bolt up at Pakenham in dominant fashion. defying a notable betting drift. 1600m should be fine, he’s in form, genuine…he commands respect.

Good little roughie here I think in 5 Vardani (Bet Now: $26.00), who looks like he has been set for the race with a couple of prep runs under the belt. Latest of those runs came at Flemington over 1800m on Oaks Day and was okay late without threatening behind Carlisle. Winkers go on, and hopefully that sharpens him up with a rise in trip.

9 Shibli (Bet Now: $8.00) is knocking on the door and has upside with the Waller polish. Ran over the mile at Flemington on Oaks Day where he was ridden with intent and battled on quite strongly when close up behind Carlisle. That was his first run in six/seven weeks, so you’d assume he has good upside under the belt.

6 Wyclif (Bet Now: $10.00) is a key winning chance. Danny O’Brien trained gelding that ran over this trip at Flemington two weeks back and he chased strongly from off the speed, but couldn’t quite get there when second to the well tried Flash Feeling. That was his first run in a few weeks, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

I think you have to believe what you saw with 10 Pink Cashmere (Bet Now: $14.00) and her debut win on the Synthetic here. She gave them an absolute spanking, winning by over four lengths and produced some of the better late splits of the meeting, without being fully extended. I think now seems the right time of year to have a crack at a race like this.

1 Direct (Bet Now: $3.80), I think, has turned the corner since being gelded. 2/2 since having the ultimate operation, the latest win being a 955m race on Manikato Night at The Valley under a peach from Zac Spain. If he can stretch his brilliance to 1100m, I think he’s the one to beat.

5 Throntari (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Griffiths/De Kock trained mare that resumes. She hasn’t raced since the early part of the Spring when down the track and producing an end of prep run in the Cockram behind Chain Of Lightning. Jumpout work has been encouraging and will be strong late if they overdo it.

Chris Waller doesn’t mind targeting the Ballarat Cup and he’s got the in form mare 3 Atishu (Bet Now: $3.20) going around. Luckless in the Empire Rose so they backed up a week later in the Matriarch where she was backed as if she was Winx. Didn’t win like Winx but she won nicely and has the 2000m run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead for this.

4 Bankers Choice (Bet Now: $3.70) is working up to a win for Mike Moroney and getting away from the big boys should help him get close to that win. Thrown in the deep end in the Champions Stakes and I actually thought he ran a very credible race behind Zaaki. That form surely has to stack up well for this.

If the rain does come, then a horse like 6 Dark Dream (Bet Now: $31.00) becomes a sneaky chance at a big price. He ran on wet ground in the Kyneton Cup at Bendigo last time and tried his guts out when second to Station One. Gets massive weight relief from that to here and should get a suck run from the gate. Wet ground, he’s in the mix.

7 Curran (Bet Now: $8.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but has the engine under the hood to take this out. Three weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington where he again got back and made up solid headway without threatening behind Argentia. He wins if he’s within range 400m out.

5 Nicolini Vito (Bet Now: $10.00) should be around the mark for Team Hayes. He ran down the straight on Cup Day at Flemington and I thought was given every chance by Williams, just not quite finishing the race off behind Vespertine. Back around a bend I do like and he finds a winnable race.

13 Crestani (Bet Now: $10.00) is a very consistent animal for Pat Carey that puts himself near the speed and tries hard. That was the case at Flemington on Cup Day and he fought on very well in defeat when third to talented animal Vespertine. He’ll land in the first few and run an honest race.

8 Munhamek (Bet Now: $4.40) has been up a little while but continues to hold his form nicely. He ran over 1400m at Flemington on Cup Day and was good in defeat after getting every chance, being bloused late by Detonator Jack, who went like an absolute jet in a super return. Munhamek is a 1400m horse, hard fit, in form, hard to beat.

The only knock with 1 Detonator Jack (Bet Now: $2.60) is staying at 1400m. That win first up on Cup Day was absolutely enormous, producing an electric finale to bolt up and run brilliant late splits. IMO, he’d be a moral at a mile. Just staying at 1400m is the only knock with him. But he’s the only other winning chance.

11 Green Fly (Bet Now: $6.50) is an improver. Team Freedman trained four year old that made his Australian debut in the race mentioned above where he was in the inferior ground but I liked the way he toughed it out behind Detonator Jack. I think he’s similar in that he wants more ground, but there is an engine under the hood.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 9 Ice Pick Nick

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 8 Munhamek

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 Vardani

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10

Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 13

Leg Three: 5, 7, 9, 13

Leg Four: 1, 8

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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