19/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Kembla Grange, The Gong day

A bumper ten race program has been set down for Kembla Grange this Saturday, headlined by The Gong (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I was on 1 Tap N Run (Bet Now: $5.50) three weeks ago and happy to butter up. He ran in a Highway at Rosehill and I thought his run was outstanding. Ninth, beaten a couple of lengths, but carried 61kg and was four wide no cover for the trip. Love him up to 1400m, gets the claim for Schiller, maps much better…I think he is one of the better gambles on the program.

8 Danzadel (Bet Now: $15.00) is a very frustrating mare to follow because she has shown enough to suggest she has a good engine under the hood. Her problem is that she usually runs her race in the mounting yard. She can be an absolute mess, but if she runs up to her effort last time behind To The Nines, she’ll be hard to beat.

Staying at 1400m is the knock with 7 Dark Satin (Bet Now: $61.00) but the return was too good to ignore. She resumed in the Highway two weeks back won by To The Nines and while she was never really a factor, I really liked the way she found the line. If this was a mile, I’d declare her, but hard to beat if she’s within range on the turn.

I think 11 Crackalacka (Bet Now: $31.00) is worth a throw at the stumps. Has home track advantage and is on the back up after racing last Friday night at Canterbury where she got back in the run and was never a threat but liked the way she found the line. Like her up to 1400m and she will be strong late. Worth an each way ticket.

4 Danish Prince (Bet Now: $5.50) is sneaky flying for Marc Conners and is a leading chance here. Far from disgraced in the Four Pillars before going to a Midway here when wide throughout but she kept finding the line and was game in defeat. Better luck this time around and she can win for sure.

1 Astero (Bet Now: $5.00) can bounce back. They rode with intent two weeks back in a Midway here and with the track pattern, that was the right thing to do. But, with this horse, he is much better with a sit. I reckon with a more patient steer, he’ll take beating against this lot IMO.

2 Smirk (Bet Now: $6.50) is hard fit now and I do think this is D-Day. Just a run fresh behind Zou De Moon before going to Doomben and she was okay late without threatening behind Drive A Deel, a very much in form mare. Third up from a break now and with the Waller polish, she appeals up to 2000m.

10 Just A Jedi (Bet Now: $7.50) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets his chance here. Horrendous watch behind Pale King two back so the stable backed him up a week later and was good late when second to Willinga Rufio. I think 2000m on the bigger track looks an ideal set up, as well as a rise to 2000m.

7 Colour Sergeant (Bet Now: $7.00) isn’t far off a win. Was keen on him two weeks ago behind Willinga Rufio and seemingly had his chance, although Regan came away from the best part of the track which probably cost him a little bit of a margin. He’s racing like 2000m suits so he commands respect.

8 Quick Tempo… (Bet Now: $6.50) surely he will get the rub of the green eventually. I was keen on him when resuming on Cup Day at Randwick and if you were on, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. He should have won but had zero luck in the straight. Senior jock on, if he gets clean air and isn’t too far away on the turn, I think he’ll win.

4 Delexo (Bet Now: $11.00) is a 1000m specialist and back to the trip here, he can run a much improved race. He resumed over 1100m at Rosehill three weeks back where he got a fair way back in the run and did make up some headway, but was never really a threat. Good second up record and I do think back to 1000m is a big tick.

2 Classy Jaybee (Bet Now: $7.00) has done a ripping job since joining Jeremy Sylvester. Resumed with a win in The Hurricane during the Newcastle Carnival. He then went to Rosehill and tried his guts out near the speed. Just couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by Mars Mission. Like him back to 1000m and will be strong late.

11 Vianello (Bet Now: $4.50) looks to have returned in good order. She resumed at the midweeks at Warwick Farm where she just got unbalanced for a stride or two and it cost her the way. She balanced up and savaged the line late to run a narrow second to the well tried Way To The Stars. Fitter and up in trip, I think she’ll only run well.

14 Pretty Wild (Bet Now: $3.40) is a pretty handy mare for Chris Waller that resumes. She had a three run Winter prep, winning two races and each time looking like a mare with talent. Just one soft trial to get ready, but she is a mare who is better than 78 grade, so watch the market.

9 Either Oar (Bet Now: $7.50) has home track advantage, a good racing style, hard fit and in winning form after leading throughout to win a Midway at Rosehill two weeks back. She actually did a really good job given the saddle slipped quite badly and I think had it slipped a tiny bit further, a buck jumping display was on the cards. Harder here, but she’ll give a sight.

14 Able Willie (Bet Now: $4.20) has the engine under the hood to do a number on these. He resumes for Chris Waller and returns to racing as a gelding. His last run came at Moonee Valley in March when a somewhat disappointing third. Given a good break, gelded and I thought he trucked super in the trial. If he’s ready to go, he’s the winner.

6 Mars Mission (Bet Now: $4.40) should take beating here. Team Hawkes trained four year old that resumed with a close up third at Warwick Farm before going to Rosehill where he looked in a tricky spot early on in the straight but Lloyd managed to get him clear and he drove hard late to win and win well. Up to 1200m, hard fit, he appeals big time.

15 Broken Arrows (Bet Now: $21.00) looks hard to beat. David Pfieffer trained gelding that resumed at Rosehill where he was given every chance by Tommy and tried his guts out but was no match late for an in form Fox Fighter. He’s a dry track horse, he maps ideally, good upside…key threat.

1 Malkovich (Bet Now: $2.90) ran a game second in this race last year and I reckon is ticking along nicely towards it again. He ran at Randwick on Cup Day when leading and giving a stack of cheek, only getting nabbed late by Clemenceau. Last bit will test, but he has the right racing pattern.

3 Athelric (Bet Now: $6.00) commands respect. He ran down the straight on Oaks Day at Flemington and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Joyful Fortune. He gets back to a bending track, firmer footing and I think the big tick is getting serious weight relief thanks to the claim. Leading threat.

9 On The Lead (Bet Now: $17.00) is a pure dry tracker and he gets conditions to suit. Resumed over this trip on Cup Day at Randwick and was very good from near last on the turn when third to Key Largo. Maps to settle much closer in the run and his best is good enough to be dangerous at a price.

13 Brutality (Bet Now: $7.00) is on the seven day back up for Joe Pride after racing last Saturday in The Hunter where, like all runs this prep, he gets back and finds the line with real purpose. Blinkers back on, the track won’t be as firm this time around and he is a horse who thrives on the back up.

8 Old Flame (Bet Now: $5.50) has come back in really order and appeals here. Team Snowden trained gelding that ran on Derby Day three weeks ago where he was given a 12/10 by J Mac and in a driving finish, was able to finish best and record a well deserved win for the prep after luckless runs prior. 1600m should be fine and stable is in form.

Why can’t 3 Promise Of Success (Bet Now: $13.00) win? Invitation winner that went to 1400m at Flemington on Cup Day and she just struggled in the inferior ground, but was only two lengths off them. Back to a dry deck, maps to do no work and has a touch of class. Winning threat for sure.

16 King Ratel (Bet Now: $34.00) should take a power of beating here. Bryce Heys trained gelding that resumed at Randwick on Cup Day in an 88 where he was back near last in the run but loved the way he found the line late when a close up third to Tamerlane. Fitter, up to the mile, down in the weights…surely he’ll run well.

Happy to butter up with 11 Solar Apex (Bet Now: $9.00) for Chris Waller. I was keen on him in the Little Dance at Randwick on Cup Day, but he just got too far back in the run. He was enormous late when a narrow second to Dream Runner. If he’s within range on the turn, I think he wins.

13 Regal Stage (Bet Now: $61.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. He comes through The Big Dance where he did work from a wide gate to settle in the first few and the early burn just told late, finishing down the track. Best is good enough and dangerous if he can get on speed without spending too many petrol tickets.

How often do we see imports improve in their second Australian prep. I think that will be the case with 2 Irish Legend (Bet Now: $5.50), who resumes for Les Bridge. Had a two run Winter prep, running third to Wicklow fresh before a down the track effort behind Bold Mac. Two 1000m+ trials to get ready, both times seeing him move well, suggests to me he’s ready to run a positive race fresh.

5 Tamerlane (Bet Now: $4.00) is a beauty for James Cummings and commands respect. Strong winner at Randwick on Cup Day. Lobbed into a lovely spot behind the speed before Atkins eased him into clear air and credit to the horse. He was there to be run down but found under pressure to fend them off. That was his first run in a month so you’d think there is room for improvement.

10 Arnaqueur (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Jean Dubois trained gelding that is second up here. He resumed two weeks back at Rosehill in a race not really run to suit but liked the way he found the line behind Short Shorts, who ran well with excuses last Saturday. Fitter and up to 1400m, he’s in with a shout.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 14 Able Willie

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Quick Tempo

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 1 Tap N Run

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 9, 13

Leg Three: 7, 11, 13, 16

Leg Four: 2, 5, 10, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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