19/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Typhoon Tracy Stakes night

Night racing continues at Moonee Valley this Friday, headlined by the Typhoon Tracy Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Typhoon Tracy Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Typhoon Tracy Stakes

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I have no idea about this race. Very even field with a host of genuine winning chances. I’ll go with 3 Seguso (Bet Now: $3.20), resuming for Grahame Begg. Has only had one start, which came in May at Sale when a strong second to Rock The Ring, who has since gone on to be a city class horse, so the form reads okay, and both his trial and jumpout have been good enough to suggest he can win fresh.

6 Apres La Mer (Bet Now: $3.90) is hard fit, racing well…just can’t quite crack it for a win. Three weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington when near the speed and battling away strongly when second to impressive debut winner Oxley Road. That reads well enough for a race like this.

Interesting runner is 11 Lady Award (Bet Now: $16.00), who resumes for Lloyd Kennewell. This filly has only had one start, which came back in August at Moe when close up when supported in the market behind subsequent Thousand Guineas winner Odeum. Draws soft and stable is in strong form.

When in doubt, go with Jamie Kah, so on top is 2 Saint Eustace (Bet Now: $3.30) for the Price/Kent team. Few weeks between runs since racing over 2400m at Sandown when way too keen in the run and he was a beaten horse at the top of the straight behind Mosh Music. The soft hands of Kah will hopefully get this horse to relax. If so, he has the right form to win.

4 Darvin (Bet Now: $2.50) will certainly have no issue running the trip out given he bolted up last time out at Sandown over the distance, sitting on speed and though challenged, he fought them off and on the line was drawing clear. Bit more depth to this line up, but now he has found winning form, could well go on with it.

7 Beachgoer (Bet Now: $14.00) deserves another chance. Symon Wilde trained gelding who was a strong winner at this track/distance two back before going to Sandown where he didn’t fire a shot behind Darvin, with Beau Mertens saying post race that the horse didn’t travel at all. Giving him another look.

3 Dark Horse (Bet Now: $3.90) is starting to find some positive form. Hayes/Dabernig trained three year old that ran down the straight at Flemington last time out and closed off pretty well when second to All Of Brighton. Relative times, he ran quicker than Oxley Road on the same meeting, so he does command some form of respect. Not sure he has got the progression of the Moody three year old.

2 Aquagirl (Bet Now: $3.50) should hold a forward spot from the inside. Bit disappointing first up at Flemington behind Japery but was much better at Sandown against the older horses when second to Heka Express after sitting near the front. Back to her own age, looks well placed and the claim helps.

I don’t know what to do with 4 Fresh (Bet Now: $4.80). Off what she produced as an early two year old, she’d spank these. Her form though has just gone completely off and her two runs last time in were plain. Been given a good break and her recent jumpout at Flemington was good enough to suggest she can run well here fresh.

Nothing wrong with the way 5 Give Me Ten (Bet Now: $4.40) has returned for Peter Moody. 2/2 this time in, both coming over the mile at Pakenham. Has led throughout in each win and both times, she was challenged but found plenty and on the line was safely holding her rivals. Harder here, but gets a comfortable lead and will prove hard to get past.

1 Mahashakti (Bet Now: $2.80) is a beauty for Mitch Freedman. Has done little wrong this time in, her last win, third on the bounce, coming at this track/distance two weeks ago when making a sustained run from off the speed and finishing best in a tight go. Gets Olly to steer and did carry 62kg to win two back so the 60.5kg here is no issue.

8 Pina (Bet Now: $7.00) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but she’s an honest mare for Mick Kent who is rarely far away from the thick end of the prize. Ran in the Mahashakti race mentioned above. She got back in the run and was never really a winning hope but liked the way she closed off. Must for exotics.

At double figures, I’ll speck 4 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $18.00). Completely luckless here two back, then just forget he went around last time. Was wide no cover, four wide no cover, and just had to tire, which he did. Draws wide, but should get decent three wide cover and launch at these late. Best is clearly good enough.

8 Forever Free (Bet Now: $2.40) is the quality of the field. Talented filly for the Ellerton/Zahra camp that resumes, with her latest run coming in the Spring when far from disgraced behind September Run, which is A1 form in Australia at the moment. Recent jumpout was solid and maps to get a perfect run near the speed.

Fast run 955 will suit 6 Queen Anabel (Bet Now: $14.00). Good from the back at this track/distance two back before going to the Sale Sprint when a strong second to an in form Open Minded. Back to this set up I like for her and if she can get luck in running, a win wouldn’t totally shock with her.

Tricky race to sort out with confidence. On top though is 2 Anirishman (Bet Now: $7.00). I’d be forgiving of his effort last time out at Pakenham. That was his first run in a month when ridden back off the speed and working home okay without threatening behind Angaston. Drawn well, fitter, he can lead and prove hard to run down.

4 Coup De Tonnerre (Bet Now: $3.10) is the intriguing runner. He was backed as if unbeatable when resuming under the lights at Pakenham a few weeks ago. I thought he had every chance from behind the speed and just whacked away, beaten under two lengths. He’s been well supported again, so someone must think he’s going well. He can win, but I’d rather watch than back.

Christoper Davis has his mare 9 Just Stellar (Bet Now: $10.00) in ripping form this prep. Ran over this track/distance last Friday night and closed off strongly from off the speed when second to The Regiment. That race looked weak on paper compared to what she faces here, but hard to knock a mare in form.

I’m with 4 Night Raid (Bet Now: $4.80). They tried to stretch her out to be a Thousand Guineas horse in the Spring but off what I saw, I think she’s more effective as a sprinter, so I hope she is being trained like one. Two trials to get ready have been more than encouraging and draws to get a suck run and finish off hard late.

10 Highly Discreet (Bet Now: $7.50) has the talent under the hood to give this a shake. Talented filly for Phillip Stokes that resumes, having not raced since the Twilight Glow when a solid fourth from off the pace behind the then in form Hindaam. Two trials to get ready have been solid and can finish over the top of these.

I’ve always had time for 14 Smokin’ Val (Bet Now: $9.50) and second up, think she can take this out. Resumed at the Valley where she was somewhat run off her legs but picked up and I thought was sound late when running second. Has the run under the belt, she’ll take some beating from the draw.

Good little race to close out the meeting. I was impressed by the first up win of 9 Garvoc (Bet Now: $2.60) at Geelong for the Price/Kent team. Was formerly with Will Clarken but had her first run for the new stable at Geelong when a bit keen just off the speed but once she got the split, she showed nice change up speed and was impressive. Think she can measure up to these.

6 Deep Dive (Bet Now: $3.40) has a good second up record and is a leading contender. Resumed down the straight at Flemington. Near the speed throughout and battled away pretty well behind a handy mare in Sapphire Crown. Think he is a horse much better on firmer footing and draws to get a good run near the speed.

4 Magnavale (Bet Now: $15.00) will put himself on speed and give his all. Good tough win fresh at Wagga before going to Flemington on a testing track when on speed and trying hard when second to Platini. Lewis German rides this guy over Sham I Am, whether that is a lead or not, not sure, but this bloke has returned in good order.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Give Us Ten

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Saint Eustace

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 The Last Napoleon

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8

Leg Two: 2, 4, 10, 12

Leg Three: 1, 4, 10, 11, 14

Leg Four: 6, 8, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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