19/6/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, McKell Cup day

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday where it is McKell Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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I’m with 3 Deficit (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) in a tricky juvenile race to start the meeting. Ryan/Alexiou trained youngster that broke his maiden tag last Sunday at Hawkesbury. To the eye, it was just a win, but given the race shape, I thought the win had a lot of merit to it. He’ll love the 1500m and is on his home track.

1 Raging Bull (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) looks a nice prospect. David Payne trained juvenile that had good specking at odds when debuting over 1400m here a fortnight back and the market got it right because he closed his race off with real purpose to finish third to Cape Breton. He’s in the right camp for a juvenile wanting more ground and finds a winnable race.

8 My Snow Queen (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up for John Sargent after racing over 1200m at Randwick last Saturday. Thought she had her chance but the race shape probably wasn’t with her. Like her back up in trip and she is below the minimum after the claim, which is gold this time of year.

Connections look like they will have fun with 4 Wicklow (Bet Now: $1.45 TOP ODDS). I just hope that they don’t aim too high with him and let him go through his grades because he’ll do that successfully I feel. 2/2 since arriving in Australia and was dominant when winning here two weeks ago. He can continue the picket fence.

Wicklow does look the winner. Only horse I can see turning the tables is 7 Red Santa (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS). He ran behind Wicklow here a fortnight back and was good late from the back, clocking strong late splits. Small field helps his cause and I do think $7.50+ is a touch of overs.

Toughest test to date for 6 Power Me Up (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) but he’s down to 51kg after the claim and we know this time year, horses below the minimum generally run well. He has done his recent racing at Albury/Wagga, winning three on the bounce and has been strong. He’ll land on speed and give a sight.

Keen to see 7 Cavalier Charles (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) at Highway grade. Talented animal for Matty Dale that resumed with a bang when spanking them over 1200m at Nowra, defying a notable late betting drift. The form around him does read quite well. If there is a knock, it’s remaining at 1200m, but I think he has the talent to overcome that.

6 Kattegat (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a Natalie Jarvis trained galloper that resumes in the Distillate Highway from two weeks back at this track. He had trialled up super prior and was specked at odds. Didn’t get the clearest of paths but at the same time, I thought he had his chance. Like him up in trip and can sit closer in the run from the draw.

2 King’s Trust (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. Resumed in the Distillate Highway from a fortnight ago here. It was a hard watch if you were on him. He got back in the run and looked to have something to offer, but couldn’t really get clear air in the straight. If he gets the rub of the green, he can take this out.

1 Lackeen (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is a working progress for James Cummings and I think a win is fast approaching. Ran over 2000m here several weeks ago. He had the A1 run in transit and looked all over a winner when presented. Just lacked the hard fitness to wear down Achiever. He’s got upside and a touch of quality, plus a recent trial win to tick him over was a nice piece of work.

Back to 2000m is the negative with 6 No Compromise (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) but he does look the most progressive of this lot. Lovely ride from Tommy saw him win at Randwick last time out, getting the better of Stockman. Is this a prep run for a 2400m race next time? Market will be the guide.

2 Monsieur Sisu (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) will put himself on speed and give his all. He attempted to lead throughout a fortnight back here and fought on very bravely when third to Mubariz, beaten just under a length. Like him big time back to 78 grade and he’d love the track to remain to have genuine give.

Specking 11 Miss Jay Fox (Bet Now: $9.50) each way for Bjorn Baker. Lumped 60kg to win last time out at Gosford and that was a big effort given it was on testing ground, she was against older horses and led throughout. Should land in a lovely spot from the draw and tumbles 5.5kg in weight.

1 Nikholi Beagle (Bet Now: $4.60) is terribly weighted, but he is a speed horse and at the Rosehill 1100m start, that is a big tick, plus gets Nash to steer. Sustained speed from the front saw him resume with a win at the midweeks at Warwick Farm in good style. He’s poorly weighted IMO but will give a bold sight from near the front.

3 Irish Angel (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to have returned in good order for Chris Waller. Lovely ride from J Mac saw her win fresh last Wednesday at Canterbury. Lobbed into the box seat before getting a dream split one off and it was race over when he pushed the button. Off that, she can measure up to Saturday grade.

8 Taksu (Bet Now: $6.50) is an interesting runner. Formerly with the Maher/Eustace camp, he now finds himself with Joe Pride and this stable is the best in Sydney when it comes to improving a tried horse. He’s a quirky animal this guy but certainly has the talent under the hood to take this out.

14 Papal Warrior (Bet Now: $6.50) is bursting to win another race. Problem is he has only won the one race from 18 outings, with eight minor placings, so the stats are there to suggest he could be a nonny. But he missed Zell by a lip at Warwick Farm last time out, he likes wet ground and is down in the weights.

9 Ashim (Bet Now: $71.00) is an interesting runner. Former French galloper making his Australian debut for Matty Smith. His best form is over slightly further than this, and his trials indicate he might need time, but the form around him when he raced overseas does read quite well for a moderate 78.

12 Approach Discreet (Bet Now: $5.00) looks ready to win and the rain forecast for Saturday certainly pushes his winning claims higher up. Was on his back when he raced a few weeks ago at Rosehill. Unfortunately the track dried up more than what he would have liked. Still, he ran a super race in defeat. Gets the wet track he wants so I’m keen on his chances.

Convinced that 11 Brutality (Bet Now: $12.00) is racing well and I think a rise to 2000m is ideal. Was really keen on him last Saturday over the mile at Randwick but gee he was very one paced when asked to go. I do also think he needs a jockey upgrade, and he gets that here, so giving him one more chance.

10 Mr Marathon Man (Bet Now: $34.00) is hit and miss but his best can see him be around the mark. Far from disgraced in the Wagga Cup before a down the track effort in the Lord Mayors Cup. Then came back to 1800m and I thought was solid in defeat behind Mubariz. Back up to 2000m, he’s a first four threat.

7 Katalin (Bet Now: $2.25) looks destined for blacktype and with that in mind, I think she can get the job done here. Resumed a few weeks ago on the Kenso track where she made an absolute mess of them in an impressive return. The query will be wet ground. Will she handle it? If she does, she wins.

1 Belluci Babe (Bet Now: $6.50) is flying for Bjorn Baker without winning. Brave run at Randwick three weeks back. Wide no cover for the trip but despite that, she kept finding the line and was really good when third to Lillemor. Hopefully she gets an aggressive steer, lands on speed and proves hard to get past.

14 Sahra (Bet Now: $14.00) is racing really well this time in for Team Snowden. Total forgive two back after sitting wide no cover. She then raced again here two weeks ago and closed off strongly late when second to Majestic Shot. Just think she has to hold her form to take a power of beating.

12 Wairere Falls (Bet Now: $3.20) is hard to beat for Chris Waller. Both runs back from a spell have come over 1500m here, the latest being two weeks ago when strong late behind stablemate Great House in a close finish. Third up now, hard fit and should be strong at the end.

7 Steely (Bet Now: $6.00) is racing well for the Ryan/Alexiou camp. Was 1800m back to 1500m when racing here two weeks ago. Thought he was given a lovely ride by Collett from the tricky gate and was there to win. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up fourth to Great House. That form reads well for this.

3 Badoosh (Bet Now: $21.00) is capable at his best. Matty Dunn trained gelding that resumed behind Dream Circle three weeks back. He was back near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up nice ground and his late splits were strong. Might want one more, but is a proven Saturday performer.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 4 Wicklow

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 Katalin

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 12 Approach Discreet

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 8, 9, 12, 14

Leg Two: 3, 4, 10, 11, 12

Leg Three: 1, 7

Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 12

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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