19/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Nicopolis Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday where it is Nicopolis Stakes Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

2 My Hidden Journey (Bet Now: $6.00) has had numerous chances to break the maiden tag, but gee he finds a race to break the run of outs. Was five weeks between runs when racing over 1200m here a fortnight back and he was a real eye catcher from the back when second to Igarashi. Fitter and up to 1300m, he really appeals.

6 Heaps Of Moolah (Bet Now: $23.00) is a son of He’s A Decoy for Bernie Miller that resumes. Teased to do something positive in his first prep but didn’t quite go on with it and you’d have to mark it down as disappointing. Lark Hill trial was more than encouraging to the eye and overall, this isn’t a strong maiden, so he doesn’t need to be anything special to go close.

12 Catchya Catchya (Bet Now: $34.00) is a War Chant mare that is on debut. This girl has been given plenty of time given she is five years of age and having start one. Trialled over 950m at Lark Hill last week and looked in pretty good order. Inside gate to use, so that helps her cause. Not sure she wins, but is one for multiples.

Remaining at 1200m is a query with 1 Dom To Shoot (Bet Now: $2.05) but you had to like his resumption at this track/distance two weeks ago. Got back off a slow speed but he wound up hard late, just missing out on picking up impressive debut winner Phanta. Outstanding win second up last prep and off the resumption, he’ll take a power of beating.

5 Indigo Blue (Bet Now: $2.45) is an Adam Durrant trained filly that was the subject of strong support when she debuted at this track/distance last Wednesday but being raw and new to the racing caper brought her undone I feel when a narrow second. Was there to win, but couldn’t put the field away. Hard to beat with the run under the belt.

Huge, huge watch here on 3 Precauitonary (Bet Now: $6.00), a Fred Kersley trained filly that resumes. This girl is still a maiden, but she contested some strong races during the Autumn, including the Karrakatta and Sires Produce where she was far from disgraced. Loved the recent trial win so I think she’s a huge market watch.

Think 2 Tajmali (Bet Now: $2.90) can resume a winner. Luke Fernie trained mare that is first up, having not raced since June 13 over this track/distance when looking to make it four on end, but looked a tired horse when having every chance, finishing sixth to Captain Kink. Resumes without a public trial but stable usually get them ready fresh.

A third up bounce back is on the cards with 3 Gillespie (Bet Now: $6.00). Both runs this time in have come at this track/distance, winning first up before racing last Wednesday when leading and just feeling the pinch late. He doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but third up, hard fit now, deserves another chance.

9 Playing Red (Bet Now: $9.00) is a daughter of Playing God for the Adam Durrant camp that resumes. This girl had three career outings in her opening prep, all of which came at Pinjarra and each time she showed some form of promise, with the highlight being a debut win. Trialled well leading and finds a winnable race.

4 Weaponson (Bet Now: $3.90) is bursting to win a race in town this prep and I think he gets a golden chance here. Three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance and he did try hard, but was no match for a speed demon and a good horse in This’ll Testya. The depth here isn’t strong and the form around him does read well.

7 Just A Fluke (Bet Now: $34.00) has talent when right. Jason Pateman trained gelding that resumed at this track/distance just over three weeks ago when leading and putting the pressure on at a good clip. Was entitled to give way late, and did, but not as drastic as what he was entitled to, so there was merit in the performance. Is a second up winner and can win without surprising.

9 Stirling Estate (Bet Now: $20.00) is on the seven day back up for James Grieve after racing in a hot race last Saturday at this track/distance where he was outclassed but far from disgraced in defeat behind Long Beach. The depth here is nowhere near as strong but the query is the last couple of times he has raced seven days between runs, he has failed.

8 Enduring Moment (Bet Now: $7.00) on top for me. Raquel Williams trained gelding that was bursting to win his maiden and it finally came two weeks ago at this track/distance in a maiden where Parnham rode a sweet race aboard the four year old, sitting just off the speed, before angling into clear air and away he went, bolting up to win well. He can measure up here.

2 Last Of The Line (Bet Now: $2.30) is a Stephen Miller four year old that resumes and does return to racing as a gelding after an opening prep during the Autumn which saw him win 2/3 before being spelled. Returns to racing as a gelding and thought his trial behind Celebrity Queen was more than encouraging, so watch the market.

9 Peppijack (Bet Now: $8.00) is a James Grieve trained gelding that is racing very well this time in but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Last ran came two weeks ago here when leading and he gave a really good kick, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Count Tomoz Off. He’s going well and runs an honest race. Can he win though?

It’ll be interesting to see what path 1 Inspirational Girl (Bet Now: $1.95) takes for this prep. Is she brilliant enough for a Railway/Kingston Town or is she a level or two below that? Well she runs here in kicking off her prep and I think she can kick off with a win. Loved the way she went about it in both runs back from a break during the Winter, cementing her place as a potential Carnival candidate. Class gets her home.

5 Zero Demerits (Bet Now: $7.00) is a beauty for Gary Crispin. He won with alot of authority two weeks ago here, and the punters knew, backing him into $5 after being double figures earlier in the week. He sat off the speed with cover before Whiting eased into clear air and his turn of foot was very sharp. If he produces that again, he’s hard to beat.

Doubt 9 Count Tomoz Off (Bet Now: $14.00) wins, but for wider multiples, could include. Sat on speed over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was a bit keen in the run, so was probably entitled to weaken late, but he kept finding under pressure and was too good. Harder here, but is a last start winner and has the right racing pattern.

With gate one, I think this sets up perfectly for 7 Celebrity Queen (Bet Now: $2.35). High quality mare for Team Williams that resumes, having not raced since April 11 when bolting up at Ascot and it was after that win that connections decided she could be a Carnival horse, so she was spelled and looks spot on after a strong and fast Lark Hill trial win.

2 Money Matters (Bet Now: $4.40) is an absolute beauty for Adam Durrant and will give his all. That was the case two weeks ago in the Jolly Beggar. He was there to be run down, but just kept finding under Johnston-Porter and was too strong in the run to the line. Creeping up in the weights, but he’s hard fit, in form and just so genuine.

4 Multiverse (Bet Now: $9.50) is a knockout chance. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Idyllic Prince here over 1300m and he tried his guts out. Just wasn’t quite good enough when third to the very handy sprinter Free Trade. Back to 1200m I do like for him. Just a matter of where he gets to in the run from the tricky gate.

7 Ocean’s Fifteen (Bet Now: $1.60) was disappointing last prep, but I think the key to him is fresh legs so being first up here, in a winnable race, I’ll go his way. Resumes for the Gangemi team, having not raced since May 2 when a close up sixth to Moschard but did have every chance. Recent trial was good, good fresh record, draws soft…plenty to like. Just needs to put one of these races away.

If the track remains in the good range, think 2 Danny George (Bet Now: $8.00) can run a much improved race. IMO, he is a horse who saves his best for dry ground, and is a horse who prefers to have fresh legs, so five weeks between runs I do like for him. Bit of depth to this line up, so watch what the market does with him.

The best version of 1 Echo Effect (Bet Now: $31.00) would see him spank these. First run for Lindsey Smith came at the midweeks at this track/distance back on August 26 and the run was just fair without being anything special behind Flower Of Scotland. Stable have a great record with tried horses, so keen to see how he goes.

Back in trip with a weight pull, leaning the way of 3 Gunnago (Bet Now: $4.60), who is going super this time in for the Jason Pateman team. Ran over 2200m here three weeks ago and was given a peach by Mitch Pateman, but Bonneville Black had an 8kg weight swing and that proved the difference. Weight pull isn’t as significant and back 100m in trip will suit Gunnago better.

Fred Kersley has 6 Bonneville Black (Bet Now: $4.60) flying at the moment. This five year old gelding has won his past two, the latest being three weeks back when winning that race mentioned above. The 51.5kg featherweight proved to be the difference on the line. Only goes up 2kg and does have the winning form, so has to be respected.

Harder here for 13 Sugar Cain (Bet Now: $8.00) but the Team Williams mare comes here off the back of a win two weeks ago here. Beat up midweek class opposition but did put them away impressively in a return to winning form. Finished down the track behind Bonneville Black seven days prior, so will need to improve to turn the tables.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 3 Gunnago

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Celebrity Queen

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 Enduring Moment

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9

Leg Two: 2, 7

Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 9

Leg Four: 3

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