2/1/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Perth Cup day

The Ascot Summer Carnival reaches its conclusion this Saturday where it is Perth Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Perth Cup 🏆: View the Odds and Field for the Perth Cup

2 Storm Whisper (Bet Now: $2.15) looks pretty smart for Neville Parnham and think he can make it 2/2 to start his career. Debuted over 1000m at Bunbury and he led throughout to spank his rivals by over six lengths. On paper, the time was plain, but relative to the day, it was very good. Comes to town but think he can measure up, especially with his racing pattern.

1 Policere (Bet Now: $3.90) will have to work hard this time around but she’s capable. Had the A1 run in transit when racing here two weeks ago before Pike got a split late, drove her through and she was able to cling on and win. Draw is a bit more tricky this time around but Pike sticks and she does have the runs on the board.

Very interested in 11 Vranyo (Bet Now: $6.00), a Star Turn filly for Simon Miller that is on debut. She’s had a couple of trials to get ready for start one, the latest being over 1000m at Belmont last week when running second and looking to go about her business nicely. Stable gets Jye McNeil to steer and she strikes a winnable 2YO contest.

Fitter and up to 1100m, really like 3 Keep Your Feet (Bet Now: $4.20) here for the Miller camp. Resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago where he was eased back to find cover and with that, that ensured he gave Madam Torio too much head start and that nippy filly scooted along in front, proving too good. If he can settle closer in the run, I think he’s the one to beat.

7 Bourbon Beau (Bet Now: $5.50) has done a pretty good job this prep for Simon Miller. Both runs have come over 1200m at Pinjarra, running second to Hot Mix before racing there again when leading throughout and spanking his rivals. He is heading in the right direction and should get a lovely run in transit from the barrier.

1 All Day Session (Bet Now: $10.00) will also appreciate a rise in distance. Outclassed in the Lee Steere two back before coming back to 1000m a fortnight ago and he worked home alright I thought from the back behind Madam Torio in a very encouraging effort I thought. This looks more his level and can run a positive race at odds.

3 Ration Aly (Bet Now: $2.60) looks suited up to the mile. David Harrison trained mare that was far from disgraced at blacktype level in the Jungle Mist and Jungle Dawn. Came back to benchmark company last time out and was good from the back behind Dig Deep. Can sit much closer in the run from the good draw and McNeil is found to ride.

Giving serious respect to 4 Dark Mission (Bet Now: $3.80) here for Pike and Team Williams. Big win from the back fresh over 1400m before stepping up to the mile here two weeks ago where she again got a mile back in the run and this time she couldn’t quite finish the race off as good but still sound when a close up fourth. Smaller field helps, should be within range on the turn and proving hard to hold out.

8 Firesale (Bet Now: $14.00) should appreciate the rise to the mile. Brett Pope trains this gelding, who is on the seven day back up after racing over 1400m here last Saturday. Got a fair way back in the run and was never really a winning threat but liked the way he finished his race off. Similar to Dark Mission. Winning threat if within range on the turn.

1000m is clearly short of the best trip for 6 Giant Leap (Bet Now: $3.10), but if he’s within range 400m out, he has the quality to finish over these. Resumes for Team Williams, having not raced since August 19 over 1400m at Belmont when back off the speed and working home powerfully to bolt up. Always like a horse that goes to the paddock on a high and his trial win last week suggests he’s come back in great order.

Hard to knock the way 5 Leica Jaguar (Bet Now: $2.80) is going at the moment. On the seven day back up after racing over this track/distance last Saturday. Had the suck run behind the speed before getting splits in the straight and driving through strongly to get up and record another win. Maps super again, hard fit and in form.

2 Hoboken (Bet Now: $18.00) will need luck from the gate but he has the right form lines. Three weeks between runs since resuming at this track/distance. Got into a decent enough spot just off the speed and stuck to the task pretty well in defeat I thought behind Ziebell. That form does read well. Just needs luck from a sticky gate.

In the corner of 6 Platinum Bullet (Bet Now: $3.40). Simon Miller trained mare who should be suited up to 1200m after producing really good change up speed to win over 1100m here three weeks ago, beating home a handy one in Resortman. Gets back up to 1200m and with a good tempo in front, she’ll get her chance to finish over the top.

2 Tycoon Storm (Bet Now: $4.40) is a fascinating runner. Comes back to 1200m after racing over 1400m in the Jungle Dawn where she had the suck run in behind the speed and seemed to have her chance, but far from disgraced in defeat, running a close up fourth to She’s Alright, beaten 0.36L. Back to 1200m is interesting, and rises big time in weight, but has class.

Market watch for sure with 5 Pearls And Prawns (Bet Now: $16.00), who is first up for Brock Lewthwaite. She has shown really good ability since day one but at times she has let punters down. Very good fresh and interesting she resumes without a public trial so I think have to wait and see what the market does, if it likes her or not.

I really hope they can get to the outside with 2 Chantrea (Bet Now: $2.90) instead of sticking nearer the inside. To me, there’s enough evidence to suggest she is much better when she get to the outside of runners and chasing instead of being nearer the fence probing for runs. Her two runs back have been quite good and is racing as if the 1800m will be ideal.

6 Naughty By Nature (Bet Now: $5.50) is racing as if the 1800m here will be ideal. Jason Miller trained mare that has been quite good at her past couple, firstly in the Jungle Dawn before being a real eye catcher from the back in the Starstruck behind Dance Music. Should have no trouble with the trip and is hard to beat.

7 Special Choice (Bet Now: $8.50) looks as if she will be okay at 1800m. Comes through the Starstruck where she didn’t exactly quicken when asked for the big effort but stayed on and was okay late through the line behind Dance Music. Not sure I could back her to win, but have to respect given she has the Ceries & White.

Any hint of market support for 7 Samizdat (Bet Now: $7.50) and I’d be jumping on with confidence. Team Gangemi trained gelding that didn’t really fire a shot in two runs during the Belmont Winter Carnival. Given a good break and I thought his trial here last week was outstanding. Looks ready to rock and roll and will be charging late off a hot speed.

6 Indian Pacific (Bet Now: $2.05) has been freshened up and comes back to 1000m after racing in the Winterbottom where he didn’t disgrace himself at all when beaten a tick over five lengths by Elite Street in the Group. No trials to get ready, so fitness levels are a bit unknown, but he does look to be a 1000m specialist and his record says as much.

8 Don’t Fuss (Bet Now: $15.00) is an interesting one. He closes off strongly over 1000m and you think he wants 1200m, then when he races at 1200m, he doesn’t finish off. That was the case last Saturday. Pike gave him a peach but he found nothing when asked for the effort. He’s better than that and could sneak a first four spot.

Recent history suggests weight can stop them in a Perth Cup but highly doubt it will stop 1 Truly Great (Bet Now: $2.15), who despite being 60kg, IMO he is thrown in at the weights. Gave them a belting to win the Kingston Town, then was arrogant in putting them away to win the Ted Van Heemst. Pike is choosing him over Midnight Blue, which is a significant lead and really, I can’t see him getting beat.

13 Midnight Blue (Bet Now: $9.00) is the only horse I can see being a remote threat to Truly Great, purely because of the weight drop and the colours he will be wearing. He has carried 60.5kg and 60kg respectively his past two and each time has worked home with purpose, albeit in third tier staying races compared to the two levels of Stakes form lines. He comes through the benchmark races and really, given his rating, he is poorly weighted, but has upside, progression and in the right camp.

Think the rise to 2400m will suit 7 Cambist (Bet Now: $71.00). She ran over 1800m here three weeks back and worked home nicely from the back, just lacking that turn of foot to put them away but was more than sound in defeat when fourth to Juicing Carrots. Lone track/distance run, she was good from near last in the WA Derby earlier this year behind Tuscan Queen. One for multiples.

6 Sentimental Queen (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a leading contender here for Hayden Ballantyne. Loved the way she knuckled down to win two back at Pinjarra before going to this track/distance two weeks ago where she had to make a sustained run from off the speed and tried hard, but her run came to end the final 100m. She’s going super and can take this out.

This will be a great training effort if 3 Treasured Crown (Bet Now: $6.00) can make it three on the bounce here. He hasn’t raced since November 7 when settling back near last in the run and finishing off powerfully late with full momentum. The break between runs is the query, but the claim helps and he is a winner, something that can’t be said about some of these.

10 Casa Rosada (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Team Pearce trained mare that is racing well. Was too good for them two back at Bunbury over 2000m before racing at this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back when on speed and fighting on strongly when second to Ouqba Ted. On form, can’t have her as a winning chance, but one for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Truly Great

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Chantrea

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 7 Samizdat

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 10

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