2/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Melbourne Cup day

A strong ten race program has been set down for Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington on Tuesday, with the race that stops a nation the clear highlight on what looks like a good quality program across the board.

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3 Renosu (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) for me in the opener. James Cummings trained colt that had start one in the Debutant at Caulfield. Showed no real early speed but loved the way he closed his race off when third to Kiki Express. The way I’m reading this, he’ll get the back of a likely speed horse and with the run under the belt, he’ll be strong at the end.

1 Brereton (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is a safe option. Peter Moody has a fab strike rate with horses hard in the market when he brings them to town. That strike rate looked like it would continue in the Debutant at Caulfield but just missed in a tight finish when a narrow second to Kiki Express. He’ll look the winner for a fair chunk of the race.

10 Water Bomber (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is the speed horse I’m talking about. On paper, it’ll say he’s had one trial, but go back to September 15 at a set of jumpouts at Sandown, he was unnamed and ran second Get In The Spirit, stablemate and winner of the Maribyrnong Trial. Has since trialled at Moe over 670m and moved very well when winning there, so he creates interest.

Finding it hard to get away from 8 Wil John (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS). Maher/Eustace trained stayer that has plenty of options coming up, whether it be the Sandown Cup over two miles or the Jericho Cup. Whatever the case, he’s come back in super order and was a strong winner over 2400m fresh at Caulfield. The form reads well, 2800m looks ideal, loses nothing with Johnny Allen taking over, hard to beat.

10 Accountability (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is an honest stayer for Chris Waller that has been up for a while but is in form. Put together a couple of wins on the bounce before racing over 2400m at Caulfield and hit the line pretty well despite wanting to lay in under pressure when third to Wil John. Doubt he turns the tables, but should be around the mark.

4 Savvy Valentino (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Bjorn Baker and is in career best form. He ran in the Tatts Cup at Randwick last time and loomed to win but was nabbed late by Torrens in what was a brutally run 2400m contest. 2800m here should be fine and he does have speed in the legs, a turn of foot, if this is a sit/sprint.

3 Housay (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is a Shea Eden trained gelding that resumes. This promising four year old is fresh, having not raced since a strong win down the straight at Flemington back in January. Been given a good break and what I find interesting is that has been nominated a stack of times since around August. Jumpouts suggest he’s ready to rock and roll. Hopefully the market agrees.

I’m very wary of 4 Excelman (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS), who resumes for Richard Laming. He is better suited over a bit further, but I was quite taken by a recent Cranbourne jumpout where he moved very well alongside a well performed mare, Kalkarni Royale. He should get a suck run from the gate and stable finds an in form McDougall to steer.

2 Mr Tipla (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) can bounce back hard. Outclassed somewhat fresh at this track/distance behind Justacanta. He then went to Caulfield when dragged back from the wide gate and failed to come on behind Agreeable. Drawn better and in a winnable race, an improved showing is definitely on the cards.

This is an even race. I’m going with the horse with the change up speed, which lies with 9 Groovy Kinda Love (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS). She is eligible for much easier and I’m respecting the fact that Mick Kent is throwing her in the deep end. Ugly watch fresh at Mornington but found a bigger track at Ballarat and the end result was a spank job. Third up, 1800m fine, Lane sticks, hard to beat if it’s a sit/sprint, which I suspect it will be.

7 Lord Vladivostok (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) commands respect here. Narrow second first up on the Parks track at Morphettville before going to the Murray Bridge Cup where he was there to win the race, but couldn’t quite get the job done when third to Regalo Di Gaetano. 1800m should be fine and with upside to come, is a definite winning chance.

1 Best Of Days (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) has class and that could almost carry him over the line. He ran in the Crystal Mile at the Valley on a shifty track, something he hates, and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Just Folk. Gets a firmer deck this time around, bigger track, he can take this out.

Looks to be good speed here, and I think that will suit 11 Frankie Pinot (Bet Now: $3.80) ideally. He’s flying this prep for the McEvoy camp, his latest run being a closing third at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas Day behind Agreeable after getting a mile out of his ground. He’ll ease back from the gate, but hopefully gets three/four wide cover, a drag into the race and be strong at the end.

4 Blondeau (Bet Now: $4.00) has done little wrong in two runs back from a mini freshen up. Two back ran second to Triple Ace before catching the eye late in the Silver Eagle when a closing fourth after getting back in the run and spotting a decent start. J Mac on, sits off a good speed, hard to beat.

3 Fender (Bet Now: $17.00) should be suited here. Brett Cavanough trained gelding that is several weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Randwick. He was no chance given the race shape but the effort was more than sound behind Big Parade, who of course ticked the form off big time in the Sydney Stakes. Fitter, he deserves another chance.

This looks a perfect race for 1 Profiteer (Bet Now: $2.40). It was hoped he would be relaxed as a three year old and ensuring he would run out a strong 1200m, but in two runs back, it’s clear that he’s still a hot head and that 1000m is his go in life. Tried hard in the Blue Sapphire but was no match for Extreme Warrior. Back to 1000m, J Mac on, he’ll take beating.

4 Enthaar (Bet Now: $3.40) is a quality filly for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes. It’ll be fascinating to see how she harnesses her speed and if she can relax. She wanted to get it over and done with as quick as she could as a 2YO, which saw her get away with a couple of wins, but it didn’t work in the Blue Diamond. I think she has the sustained speed to win. Just depends who else will be up the front with her.

8 Super Thief (Bet Now: $8.50) is putting together a tidy little record for the Hayes camp. Lovely ride from McDougall saw him win impressively at Sale last time. Ran time in doing so and won with something in hand. Harder here, but he looks more than capable of measuring up.

The vet checks are definitely a concern leading into the race with 3 Spanish Mission (Bet Now: $9.50), but if you’re going off his form, he is clearly the one to beat. He is one of the best stayers in the UK and has form around Stradivarius, who is one of the best 2400m+ horses in the world. He has shown he can handle a rock hard track, a truly run 3200m no issue…if he ticks everything off re vet checks etc, he’s the one for me.

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Is 2 Incentivise (Bet Now: $2.80) a champion? Does he need to be? History says 57kg in search of the double is a big ask, but realistically, there is a lot of dead wood to this field and off what I’ve seen, nothing from the Caulfield Cup will turn the tables on him. He seems to be the horse that the longer the race goes, the better he gets. He’s a deserving favourite and I’m sure will look the winner.

History says doing the double is a tough ask. History also says that winning back-to-back Melbourne Cups is hard too, but as with Incentivise, it’s not a great field, considerably weaker than last year as a whole, which was won by 1 Twilight Payment (Bet Now: $13.00), so he has to command respect. He looks to be ticking along beautifully based on what he has done to date this year and from all reports, he’s flying at Werribee. He’ll likely lead and give a stack of cheek.

I wouldn’t be shocked at all if 22 Floating Artist (Bet Now: $13.00) won. He’s flying this guy and really, should have won his last two. Went too slow in front two back in the Coongy, costing him a Caulfield Cup start. He then went to the Moonee Valley and gee it was ugly viewing. He brings relatively fresh legs into this, two miles I think will be fine…he’s a definite winning chance.

I think the two lightly raced Sydney mares dominate this race. The inside gate I hate for 10 April Rain (Bet Now: $4.00) but upside wise, she’s the best of this lot. Resumed at the Rosehill midweeks and closed off strongly nearer the inside when second to Quantico, who is hard to beat in the last. She seems a mare who needs clear air early to build momentum, so I’m hoping McEvoy can weave some magic from the draw.

11 Promise Of Success (Bet Now: $3.10) is heading in the right direction for John O’Shea. Really good effort in a slowly run race two back. She then went to Randwick when getting three wide cover and once Bowman gave her clear air, she let down powerfully and was much too good. Confident she measures up.

7 Excelida (Bet Now: $27.00) is in with a shout here. Wide throughout but was too good at this track/distance two back. She then went to the Black Pearl at Geelong, back to 1200m, and was an eye catcher from the back behind Rainbiel. Can sit much closer in the run from the draw and is a knockout chance.

14 Maracana (Bet Now: $4.40) on top in a tricky race. Danny O’Brien trained filly that ran over the mile on Cox Plate Day and worked to the line strongly from off the speed when third to Mokulua. She’s always looked like a filly that wants more ground and 1800m at Flemington looks ideal.

Back to 1800m is interesting with 6 Spirit Of Gaylard (Bet Now: $4.80) but I do have time for him. Strong maiden win first up before going to the Vase on Cox Plate Day and was luckless behind Forgot You. He wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Derby so back to 1800m is the unknown, but enormous upside.

2 Blushing Tycoon (Bet Now: $26.00) lacks the class of some of these but I don’t think the trip will be an issue for him and is a first four threat. Ran over the mile on Thousand Guineas Day when on speed and lacked a turn of foot but stayed on and was sound in defeat when a close up fourth to Rhinoceros. One for multiples I’d suggest.

14 Quantico (Bet Now: $6.50) in the get out. John O’Shea trained four year old that is an absolute bomb when he finds dry ground, which has been evident his past two. He has found firm footing and has won his past two in good style, the latest being over 1200m at Randwick in good time from the back. Needs luck I think from the draw but has the change up speed to beat these.

10 Curran (Bet Now: $3.70) is flying and is hard to beat here. Sharp first up win in a 955m at the Valley. He then went to the Caulfield Sprint where he was heavily backed late and got a fair way back but finished off strongly when third to Oxley Road. Proven straight track performer and down in the weights, I think he only runs well.

4 Prime Candidate (Bet Now: $8.50) looks to be the leader in the race and i thought his run in the Sydney Stakes was very good at big odds. This is a much weaker field and if he can get a relatively easy run in front he will be hard to run down at good odds.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Profiteer

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 8 Wil John

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Spanish Mission

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 16, 22, 24

Leg Two: 10, 11

Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 14

Leg Four: 4, 6, 10, 14

$50 Investment = % of the dividend if successful

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