2/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Oaks day

The Belmont Carnival continues this Saturday, headlined by the Aquanita Stakes (2000m) and Belmont Oaks (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Belmont Oaks 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Belmont Oaks

Aquanita Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Aquanita Stakes

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I am with 4 Aztec Ruler (Bet Now: $4.00) on debut. He’s had a couple of trials to get ready for start one, winning both. First trial was over 400m before stepping up to 1000m where the Blinkers were put on and he finished strongly from off the speed. I think getting a suck run behind the speed, C Parnham sticks, he’s worth the gamble.

1 Revitup (Bet Now: $2.90) will jump on the bunny and look for the winner for the most part. Four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she had to burn hard to lead, hold the lead, and that hard work just told late when second to Rumour Says. If she gets a cheap lead, she’ll take beating.

5 Spirit Man (Bet Now: $10.00) is a son of Dalghar for Simon Miller that is on debut. He trialled last week here over 1000m where he ran second to Valorem and I thought went about his business nicely. Tricky gate to overcome, but have to respect the stable with their juveniles.

These races I don’t like getting involved in. For the sake of a tip, on top is 2 Snippy Miss (Bet Now: $6.50). She came through the Flicka’s Chance race from two weeks ago here where she didn’t quite get the rub of the green in the straight where she had something to offer. Maps to get an ideal run, CJP sticks and the mile should be fine.

11 Glamour Packed (Bet Now: $5.00) should love the rise to the mile. Ran a fortnight back in the race mentioned above and produced the best late splits of the race when a narrow second to Flicka’s Chance. She was a few weeks between runs so fitter and up to 1600m, she’ll take beating.

12 Baby Blues (Bet Now: $51.00) is one I could entertain for wider multiples. Few weeks between runs when racing in the Flicka’s Chance race where she worked to the line pretty well without threatening but the run was still full of merit. Not sure I could back her to win, but a first four threat.

5 Mahaleo (Bet Now: $9.00) gets the nod. Fred Kersley trained three year old that is showing good promise. He got a mile out of his ground when racing over 1200m here just over two weeks ago and savaged the line late when second to I’m Eugene, clocking great late splits. Like him up to 1400m and if he can settle closer in the run, he’s the one to beat.

6 Secret Deploy (Bet Now: $5.00) is such a fascinating runner. Adam Durrant trains this grey and he’s got a Stakes class engine under the hood. Just mentally he’s not quite 100% there. He resumes after a frustrating Summer prep where he teased to win but his racing pattern worked against. Trial was good and 1400m fresh tells me he’s ready to go, but watch the market.

Staying at 1400m is the knock with 12 Nero King (Bet Now: $4.80) but he looks a nice horse for Jim Taylor. Debuted just over two weeks back over this trip at Northam and gee he was impressive from off the speed, charging clear to win by a space with something in hand. If this was a mile, he’d be a moral. Just staying at 1400m is the query.

3 Mojo Rhythm (Bet Now: $5.50) on top in what looks a very weak edition of the Aquanita. Kieran McDonagh trained three year old that ran over 2100m here three weeks ago against the older horses and was very good late from the back, clocking good late splits, when second to Acting God. Hard fit, back to his own age, I think he’s the one to beat.

4 Kentucky Blue (Bet Now: $6.50) is a three year old for Neville Parnham that lacks a turn of foot so I think a rise to 2000m suits. He ran over 1700m here last time where he was there to win but just lacked the change up speed to put them away when third. Parnham sticks and the depth is on the thin side.

6 Tizzle Top (Bet Now: $21.00) lacks the class but he should love the rise to 2000m. Ran over the mile here just over two weeks back and worked to the line pretty well when third, racing like a horse that wants mroe ground, which he gets here, and given the lack of depth, he has to be respected.

1 Searchin’ Rocs (Bet Now: $1.75) is the class of the field and that gets her home IMO. She was outstanding in the Belmont Guineas two weeks ago. Race shape was clearly against her but she worked to the line with real purpose when second to Devoted. Off that, 2000m looks fine, on breeding as well, and she has class.

3 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now: $4.00) has 2000m+ written all over her. The query is the break between runs, five weeks off since a very good second to a handy filly, a very handy filly, in Zephyra. Break between runs and straight to 2000m…it’ll be a good training effort, but take out Searchin’ Rocs, it’s a thin race.

8 Salacia Queen (Bet Now: $SP.00) is one I could entertain for wider multiples. Ran 1700m here last Wednesday where she was ridden negatively and then in the straight didn’t get the best of runs, so she should have finished a touch closer. I think a rise in trip suits and have to respect the stable.

Going to side again with 1 Last Of The Line (Bet Now: $5.00). He resumed over 1400m two weeks ago here and was very good from the back in an excellent return behind Startrade. You’d like to think there is good upside to come and up to the mile, with a class edge, he’s the pony to bet on.

5 Startrade (Bet Now: $2.90) is unknown at the mile but gee he’s flying for Dan Morton. Big win in that race mentioned above, sitting back in the run before producing a brilliant finale to overhaul them and win impressively. If he can see the trip out okay, he has the change up speed to be dangerous.

7 Sluice Box (Bet Now: $4.40) is 2200m back to the mile, so you’d assume the stable has eyes on something coming up over a trip. The 2200m run was two weeks back when a dominant winner under a peach from McGruddy. Loves Belmont and will be strong late if they overdo it in front.

6 Heart Of Coeur (Bet Now: $8.00) is flying for Steve Burton and should take beating provided he doesn’t get a mile back in the run. Both runs this time in have come at this track/distance, the latest being three weeks ago when a fast finishing second to a very much in form Billy Ray. Hopefully won’t be as far back this time around and with his finale, he’ll take beating.

5 Savage One (Bet Now: $2.90) should be suited back to 1400m. Last couple of runs have come over the mile here, the latest being a fortnight back where eh was on speed throughout and he gave a very strong kick but couldn’t quite finish the job when second to Billy Ray. Back to 1400m with a soft trip on speed, he’ll look the winner.

7 Vital Flirt (Bet Now: $34.00) is now with David Harrison so with a new stable, I’d keep an eye on her. Ran in the Billy Ray mentioned above that Heart Of Coeur contested and she didn’t really fire a shot in a plain effort. New stable with P Harvey to steer, I’d watch the market with her.

3 Nowhiteflag (Bet Now: $3.10) is a 1000m specialist who loves to lead. Showed guts to win at this track/distance two weeks ago where he was on a strong speed and was there to be run down but Harvey lifted him when it counted to win, just. If he can find the front and take control, he’ll take beating.

1 Mood Swings (Bet Now: $9.00) is a George Dupre trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since April 16 when he gapped them from the front at Ascot, running good time. Interesting he resumes without a trial, and drawn wide, but gets in well after the claim and is a short course specialist.

7 Warm N Fuzzy (Bet Now: $12.00) is just about looking for the paddock for Ashley Maley. Ran in the Nowhiteflag race mentioned above where he had a suck run behind the speed and though held up for a few strides, he had his chance and was plain late. Down in the weights, he’s one for multiples.

10 My Baby Blue Jean (Bet Now: $4.40) on top. Talented filly that resumes for Adam Durrant and I do hope they are treating her as a 1000-1100m horse because that is when she has been most effective. They tried her at 1200m last prep last run and it didn’t work. She’s a short course filly and she looks ready to go off the back of a sharp Lark Hill trial win.

6 Hibiscus Lady (Bet Now: $15.00) has an awful winning strike rate but she’s an honest mare that is around the mark. Has finished runner up in both starts this prep, the latest coming last Wednesday here when a narrow second to No Change in a driving go. That was 1200m and back to 1000m, she’s a threat.

12 Athlone Castle (Bet Now: $91.00) is one I could entertain for wider multiples. Four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he got back to near last in the run and worked to the line pretty well without threatening when fourth. Not sure he wins, but a first four threat with luck from the gate.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Searchin’ Rocs

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 10 My Baby Blue Jean

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Last Of The Line

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 1, 3

Leg Four: 10

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