2/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Winter Championship Series Finals day

Flemington will host ‘Finals Day’ this Saturday, with nine races set down, highlighted by the Winter Championship Final (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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1400m is on the short side for 1 Mahashakti (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) but I think she has a bit on these re class and to my eye is wound up for a first up kill. Mitch Freedman trains this quality mare, who hasn’t raced since the Spring when down the track in the Matriarch. Given a good break and with two jumpouts and a trial under the belt, she’s ready to go.

3 Zousonic (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a mare with a horrible racing pattern but she has a decent engine under the hood. She ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where she got to near last in the run but she sliced her way through the field and drove hard late to just miss out on the win when second to Grande Rumore. If she’s within range 400m out, she can take this out.

5 Galgani (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) can run an improved race at odds. Ran in the Grande Rumore race mentioned above where she was near the speed throughout and battled away late when down the track. She was 1100m to 1400m so I think that run under the belt will hold her in good stead.

5 Chaseton (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) on top. Peter Moody trains this youngster, who created a decent impression when a dominant all the way winner on debut at Geelong, producing good change up speed when asked for the effort. This race looks solid, but I think he could be destined for better things than this.

4 Zou Sensation (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks a nice horse for Team Corstens. Not sure he beat a great deal two weeks ago when on debut at Murray Bridge but he made a mess of them and was dominant after sitting on speed. Bit of depth to this line up I feel, but can’t knock an unbeaten horse who can land on speed.

9 Vagrant (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. Mitch Freedman trained filly that debuted during the Swan Hill Carnival in a maiden where she got back in the run and took a while to wind into her work but she savaged the line late to win, producing the best late splits of the race. She’ll be strong late. Just doesn’t want to get too far away in the run.

8 Libertated Girl (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) is a filly I have time for and I think she’ll take beating here. Bit of arrogance about her debut win at Mornington over 1500m. She then came back to 1400m at Flemington where she just lost sight of the bunny but was good late when fourth to Kir Royale. If she can get clear air and a decent drag into the race, she’ll take beating.

1 Bella Rouge (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is a key chance. Strong winner against the older horses two back at this track/distance before going to Rosehill where she was given a peach by Tommy Berry to overcome the bias and win again. Up in the weights, but hard to knock the way she’s racing.

7 Arranmore (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) should appreciate a truly run 1400m. Ran over 1300m a few weeks ago on very testing ground at Sandown and she battled away okay without threatening behind My Yankee Girl. I reckon up to 1400m will suit, as will getting back to firmer footing.

9 Capital Elle (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) will land on speed and run a bold race. Annabel Neasham trained filly that led throughout to win over 1500m at Hawkesbury in a maiden last time, beating Portnoy, who won last week, so the form has been ticked off, she has a good racing style re versatility, and last start was against the older horses, which is a big tick.

11 Winning Bid (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) should appreciate the 1600m. Debuted in the Grinzinger Bishop race from a fortnight back. She had a suck run along the fence and took a while to wind into her work, but she was good late when sixth. She looked like she wants the mile, and clearly has good upside.

13 Transzam (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is one I could include in wider multiples. Attempted to lead throughout over this trip in a Bendigo maiden last time and he gave a solid kick from the front. Just got the staggers but stayed on well enough to finish third. He has the 1600m run under the belt, which helps his cause.

3 Phere The Ex (Bet Now: $4.40) will eat up a 2500m slog to my eye. He ran over 2400m at Sandown last start where he was very one paced when asked but he stayed on and in another stride, he picks up Whirly Jig. 2500m, firmer footing, hard fit, in form, he’ll do me.

4 Rock Up (Bet Now: $2.30) has the Patrick Payne polish and the stable is absolutely flying. He was 1400m to 2000m when racing here a fortnight back where he got a mile out of his ground but worked to the line pretty well late in the piece when second to Texas Tea. I doubt he turns the tables, but runs well again.

6 Whirly Jig (Bet Now: $9.50) lacks the class of a couple of these, but if this becomes a slog, then he is a must for multiples. He slogged it out best to win over 2400m at Sandown last time where Froggy really lifted him late. Lacks a turn of foot, but stays and has found winning form.

1 Maserartie Bay (Bet Now: $4.40) can keep winning for the Maher/Eustace team. He ran over this track/distance several weeks ago where J Kah gave him a peach from near speed and once she clicked the gelding up, away he went and he spanked them. No reason to see why he can’t win again.

5 Pesto (Bet Now: $8.00) commands respect. He seems to have a real liking for this track/distance, he’s hard fit and in form. Just took a little too long to wind into his work two weeks ago but was good late when a close up third to Saracen Knight. The rise to 2600m suits and should be strong late.

6 Monbaher (Bet Now: $5.50) looks a real one batter so if this becomes a slog, he’ll be strong at the end. He was off the bit before the turn at Sandown last start but I liked the way he stuck on behind dominant winner Horrifying. Good weight relief, firmer footing, a knockout chance.

6 Zac De Boss (Bet Now: $4.60) seems to have a real liking for the straight course so he commands respect here. He got a peach ride from Cartwright to win here a fortnight back where he was there to be run down but he found plenty under pressure and was too good. If the 1200m is okay at this level, he’ll only run well.

3 Sirius Suspect (Bet Now: $5.00) loves the straight course and he’ll be on speed, giving himself every chance. He was near the speed throughout in the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill and battled away really well behind a quality horse in Triple Missile. Back to a track he loves, on the minimum, he’ll only run well.

10 Florescent Star (Bet Now: $12.00) likes racing at Flemington down the straight and I think is a knockout chance. Luckless two back in the Straight Six before going to the Zac De Boss race two weeks back and was good from off the speed when fourth to the Simon Zahra galloper. With a cold steer, she can launch late.

12 Tuvalu (Bet Now: $3.00) gets a great chance to stamp himself as a really good horse. Got a peach from Jarrod Fry to win two weeks ago at this track/distance, getting the suck run behind the speed and drove hard to nail Visinari late. He’s a thinker the horse and with a patient steer, a bunny to chase, I think he’s quite effective.

I’m giving respect to 7 Frankie Pinot (Bet Now: $10.00). Team McEvoy trained gelding that won the Wangoom before a slashing effort when fourth in the Goodwood. He then raced at Randwick three weeks ago and didn’t quite get the rub of the green but was very good late behind Coal Crusher. He’s flying and will be strong late.

1 Serpentine (Bet Now: $41.00) is such a fascinating runner. His last win was the 2020 English Derby, so that’s the class of horse we are dealing with. His overall form is A1 and you’d assume is heading towards the Melbourne Cup. Prep run you’d assume but he does have class/quality on his side.

Grahame Begg wouldn’t back up 3 Cardinal Gem (Bet Now: $2.90) unless he came through the run in good order. Strong winner at Caulfield on Saturday and the win had plenty of merit given he was wide no cover for the trip but he kept finding and was strong late in winning. The tempo wasn’t hot so the run wasn’t brutal hence why I like the back up and he’ll love returning to Flemington.

4 Arran Bay (Bet Now: $5.50) comes through the Cardinal Gem race mentioned above. It was clearly a prep run for this race given he was snagged back to last in a slowly run race and was good late behind the Begg three year old. With a more positive steer, he can bounce back.

2 Blazerro (Bet Now: $8.50) has only won the one race, but he is a horse with talent. Sat on speed three weeks ago at Sandown and he tried his guts out trying to fend them off but couldn’t quite get the win when a narrow second to Bigolino. Not sure I could back him to win, but one for wider exotics.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Chaseton

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Mahashakti

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 9 Capital Elle

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 9, 10

Leg Two: 3, 6

Leg Three: 1, 7, 12, 15

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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