20/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Night racing continues at Moonee Valley this Friday where eight races have been set down. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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9 Naleigh (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a talented filly for Will Clarken and confident she can measure up to these. Impressive maiden winner on Cup Day at Morphettville, beating home some likely types, so think the form out of that will be strong and the tick over trial on the Parks track was sharp. In the right stable and has upside to come I think.

3 Passionate Lass (Bet Now: $1.95) looks a nice enough filly but gee she’s short. Got complete control when debuting at Mornington over 1200m under Michael Poy and in a real sit/sprint, she was too good. In terms of overall time, it was poor relative to the day, so could I take $2.20 here? No way, but you can’t know how much improvement she’ll take from start one to two.

Giving 8 Seeress (Bet Now: $13.00) another chance. Was on this girl when she resumed on Cup Day down the straight and on face value, she was pretty ordinary behind Alleboom, but the tempo was a crawl and those behind really had no chance. Has run well at the Valley previously and an improved showing is on the cards.

These 1600m city maidens are always tough to sort out with confidence. On top is 7 Merdeka (Bet Now: $9.50), who is going super for Tony Noonan. Raced on Bendigo Cup Day in a maiden where she got a mile back off a good speed before peeling wider and she really finished her race off with purpose. Has settled near the speed prior in her career so from the inside gate, I’d love to see Chris Symons be positive.

3 Who’s Your Papy (Bet Now: $4.40) is a few weeks between runs for the Maher/Eustace camp since racing in a Swan Hill maiden where he got back to near last in the run but peeled to the outside and launched late, just missing out on the win when second to Russian Fighter. Can sit closer in the run from the draw and gets Blinkers first time.

11 Goldeva (Bet Now: $34.00) gets a stack of gear changes for her second up run. Resumed over 1400m at Kilmore in a fast run race where she was near the speed throughout and battled away well but had her chance when fourth to Austrata. Not sure I could back her to win this, but could entertain in wider exotics.

Tricky race this. I’ve landed with 8 New Choice (Bet Now: $6.00), who has won his past two for the Carlo Vidotto camp. Broke the maiden two back in what has turned out to be a red hot form reference before a strong win in a Class One last time, beating home Chief Altony, who should have won here last Friday night, so the form around him reads well, he’ll land on speed and give a bold sight.

The safe option is 1 Desert Dreamer (Bet Now: $3.70). Proven city performer who is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where Cartwright put him into a lovely spot just off the speed and he tried hard, but couldn’t quite dash when required and had to settle for a second to Bacchus. Hard to beat once again from the plum draw.

6 Austrata (Bet Now: $6.50) has ability. Not sure Kilmore was his track first up, but he was simply too good for them in an impressive return, his first run since being gelded. Think over time, he will want 2000m+, so I think if he is to win here, he’ll want the tempo to be genuine, and on paper, there is the potential for that to happen.

On raw times, 3 Rock Tycoon (Bet Now: $3.30) does need to improve a bit to beat some of these, but he’s just so genuine at the moment, hard fit and in form. Gave them a belting two back at Swan Hill before racing at this track/distance last Friday night when given a peach by Maddy Lloyd and this gelding spanked them. As well as she’s riding, Jye McNeil is an upgrade, draws to stalk the speed and if the breaks go his way, I think he can win again.

5 Meteorite (Bet Now: $1.60) does look a real short course horse, so back to 955m is a positive for this girl. Just found the 1100m a bridge too far on Stakes Day but was very good when fourth to Leiter, beaten just over a length. She’ll likely lead this field up and look the winner for a long way. Has she got any upside though?

1 Grandview Avenue (Bet Now: $5.50) is similar to Rock Tycoon in the sense he will sit off what looks a very strong speed on paper and be charging late. Comes through the Leiter race mentioned above and was only 0.4L off Meteorite so $2.60 vs nearly double figures, with a 2kg weight swing, I can easily save on this guy.

Looks an ideal race for 5 Hillcrest Moses (Bet Now: $8.00). Matt Laurie trained gelding who comes here off the back of a pretty dominant maiden win at Benalla where he got better as the race went on and really did give his rivals a spanking, running sharp time in the process. Finds a winnable Class One and gets Ethan Brown remaining on.

2 Helavabel (Bet Now: $10.00) is a huge watch here. Greg Eurell trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since April 13 at Sandown when down the track behind the then promising Final Man, a race which included some handy types including the Stakes performed Alburq. Olly booked, drawn okay for his pattern…just want a market push.

9 Night Passage (Bet Now: $11.00) is a daughter of Not A Single Doubt for the McEvoy camp that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Adelaide Guineas during the Autumn Carnival when down the track but far from disgraced in defeat behind Game Keeper. Has trialled up really well leading in, and does have a touch of quality about her.

Happy to back 3 Sophie’s Revenge (Bet Now: $6.00) each way. Symon Wilde stable is humming along very nicely at the moment and this girl is in form after a strong win on Ararat Cup Day, sitting off a very fast speed before getting clear air late and surging hard to draw away and win well in a fast run race. Does no work from the gate and should be strong at the end provided it isn’t a walking speed.

8 Tragic (Bet Now: $2.20) has the right form to win…but she’s only won the one race and placed on a further seven occasions so that says it all really. Her run on Oaks Day behind Tralee Rose was good, just missing out on the win. Gate one, claim for Neindorf…all points to her, but could I take $2.40/thereabouts? Not for her, no.

If 11 Delightful Hustler (Bet Now: $17.00) can hold a forward spot from the inside gate, reckon she can be dangerous at a price. She beat up a solid enough field at Pakenham on Oaks Day, getting towards the outside and finishing right over the top to win well. Looks to have come back in good order and is a knockout chance.

10 Robe Bay (Bet Now: $3.60) is a very progressive mare for Dane Smith that comes to town off the back of a Country Cup success having bolted up in the Mortlake Cup under a lovely ride from an in form Jack Hill. Has showed city quality since day one when racing in SA and she gets a great chance to showcase that here.

9 Crimson Ace (Bet Now: $5.00) is going well for the Busuttin/Young camp and is hard to beat here. Ran over this track/distance on Manikato Night and was more than sound in defeat when fourth to the in form mare West Wind, a mare who was one of the form gallopers at this level during the Spring. Does no work from the gate and Currie is riding MV very well at the moment.

7 Bramfield (Bet Now: $8.00) has been a ripper for Darryl Carrison for a couple of seasons now and given how well she’s going, she’s probably too good to race on her home track exclusively at Port Lincoln. Raced in the Ararat Cup last time out and worked home well from off the speed when third to Portland Jimmy. That form reads well, gets the claim. Just needs luck from the wide gate.

If this was 1200m, I’d declare 11 Vowmaster (Bet Now: $1.70). Just back to 1000m from 1100m I’m not sure about, but his debut win at Kyneton was very impressive, especially the last 75-100m where he really put them away and drew clear to win like a nice horse. Comes straight to town and Michael Walker remains on, and does look the one now, clearly, after the scratching of Written Miss.

I think it will be handle bars down from the outset with 3 Young Liam (Bet Now: $9.50). His best chance of winning will be if Rawiller finds the front and lets him roll.. They’ve ridden him somewhat conservatively this prep in two runs but would love to see them roll in front and let him run. If they do, think he’s a chance of knocking off the fav.

7 Wind Force (Bet Now: $17.00) is eight years of age but I reckon Ben Brisbourne has him absolutely flying at the moment. Sat off a fast speed last time out at Cranbourne and once the gaps appeared for Callow, he really surged hard late and got up to win. Harder here, but does no work from the gate and will be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 11 Vowmaster

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Rock Tycoon

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 3 Sophie’s Revenge

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9

Leg Two: 3, 8, 9, 11

Leg Three: 2, 7, 9, 10

Leg Four: 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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