21/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Manikato Stakes night

The Cox Plate Carnival at Moonee Valley kicks off on Friday night, headlined by the Group l Manikato Stakes (1200m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Gee this isn’t much of a race to start the meeting. No real confidence, but landed with 6 Tokorangi (Bet Now: $5.50). She drops a fair way in grade/depth from what she has contested this prep. Far from disgraced in the Let’s Elope fresh before going to the Seymour Cup at Bendigo and was very good from the back in a race where the form has been franked big time. Like her up in trip and finds a very thin Mares race.

1 Silent Sovereign (Bet Now: $3.60) has the runs on the board to command respect. She resumed in the Rose Of Kingston where she paraded like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind Excelida. 1400m straight to 2040m I find interesting, but she is the class factor.

5 Look Sharpish (Bet Now: $9.00) is a two time winner at The Valley and is in with a shout. Her two runs back from a spell have come on the Synthetic at Pakenham, both at the mile, and each time she has found the line okay without threatening. The rise to 2040m is ideal and she should be strong late.

If 2 Lightsaber (Bet Now: $9.00) is going to be any sort of horse, he’d want to be running well here and if he brings his best, double figures is insanity. I think you can make excuses for all three runs this prep. Outclassed in the Memsie first up before struggling on wet ground at Flemington. He then went to Sandown and was very plain, but was found post race to have Cardiac Arrhythmia. Think he’ll land on speed comfortably and Blinkers first time is a big tick.

4 Grandslam (Bet Now: $5.00) is the market watch for sure. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since June 25 at Caulfield when at the end of a long prep and was looking for the paddock. Not a noted fresh horse, but his jumpout work has been strong and does have the ability to beat these easily.

7 Eluding (Bet Now: $5.50) is the map horse and is harf fit after racing last Wednesday at Caulfield where he looked the winner when presented but just couldn’t quite finish the job and was nabbed late by Ascension. That was his first run in a month so you’d assume this is a target race and he should get a soft trip from the gate.

Hard fit with Blinkers back on, the intent is there with 7 Vultan (Bet Now: $4.60). Forgive run fresh at Mornington before going to Ballarat where he had the suck run behind the speed and battled on really well when second to Stylish Enuff. Should get a lovely run from the gate and this isn’t an overly strong race.

6 Demando (Bet Now: $6.00) needs luck from the wide gate but she looks to have returned in pretty good order. Real eye catcher fresh behind Neverstandingstill at Sandown before going to Hamilton where he contested a strong race, albeit a small field, and was good in defeat behind Overkill. If she’s within range on the turn, she can win for sure.

1 Sam’s Image (Bet Now: $12.00) is the class of the field and is a winner at this track/distance from two back. Last start came at Cranbourne where he was six weeks between runs and just looked a bit rusty, finishing down the track. Fitter, with the class edge, I think he commands respect.

I think it’ll be jump/run from 6 Fission (Bet Now: $5.50), who resumes for the Griffiths/De Kock camp. He returns to racing as a gelding and I think he’s flying. He’s had two jumpouts to get ready for his return, both times beating home Grand Impact, who of course came out and won the Blue Sapphire, so the form reads so well. Lands on the bunny and is hard to run down.

10 Yowie (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy filly. Resumes for John Sadler, having not raced since April 9 when a solid fourth at Caulfield in the Redoute’s Choice. Given a good break and she’s had three jumpouts and a trial to get ready for her return, so fitness won’t be an issue. With this stable especially, watch the market.

8 Zourata (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Team Corstens trained colt that looks to have talent. Not sure he beat much on debut at Ballarat, but he put them away quite impressively on the testing heavy track. Blake Shinn is the form rider in Melbourne at the moment and he sticks from the debut.

There are a stack of speed demons engaged so want to be on something sitting back and launch late, which will be 11 New York Baby (Bet Now: $18.00). Not sure 955m is her go in life, but she is one mare who will appreciate a fast speed and be strong at the end. Far from disgraced at Mornington last time, I think she’s worth a throw at the stumps in a very open race.

The sustained early support for 3 Taunting (Bet Now: $2.45) I find fascinating. He has been given a mini freshen up since contesting the Whylie at Morphettville where he led at a fast speed and tired late when third to Shamino. Given his racing style, I think it’ll be jump/run from the front. Just depends if he can cop the heat and still finish off at the end.

10 Undeniable (Bet Now: $34.00) is a knockout hope at a massive price. She resumed four weeks ago at Rosehill where she was down the track behind Fox Fighter, but that said, I thought she should have finished much closer, not getting much luck in the straight. Will need luck from the inside gate, but she seems big odds given she does have ability when right.

Happy to speck 7 Territory Titan (Bet Now: $7.50) each way. He’s a tough front runner that is in good form. Strong on speed win on the Parks track at Morphettville two back before going to the Seymour Cup at Bendigo where he attempted to lead throughout and stuck on really well behind Noname Lane. I think he’ll lead this field up comfortably and if this track is playing on speed, he’ll only run well at a price.

4 Shibli (Bet Now: $4.50) might want one more, but the return was encouraging. That came at Sandown on Underwood Day where he was warming to the task late in a good return behind Pascero. May want one more and third up at 2000m is his go, but I am not dismissing him off the fresh run, because it was good.

2 Vardani (Bet Now: $26.00) might want one more but is a winner at the track. He resumed over 1400m at Sandown where he got a mile out of his ground, sitting last in the run, and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up good ground behind Pascero. If the inside gate is used to advantage, he’ll run a cheeky race I’d suggest.

10 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $4.60) has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. Her run in the Moir was absolutely enormous, defying the pattern and launched late to just miss out on picking up stablemate Coolangatta, who had the pattern in her corner. So genuine, finds the line, she’s hard to beat.

Contender or pretender time for 5 Paulele (Bet Now: $3.80). If he’s going to be a Group l class animal, he’d want to be winning this. He was good in the Moir and class got him home in an average Schillaci, which can be confirmed with Ingratiating failing to beat a runner home in The Everest. He maps ideally, set for the race…D-Day.

If 13 Best Of Bordeaux (Bet Now: $12.00) brings his absolute best, he can be dangerous, because he did beat Coolangatta in the Golden Slipper and given the big price gap between the pair here, you could easily speck this colt. If he can get across on speed and not spend too many petrol tickets, he’ll make sure they know he’s there.

3 Accountability (Bet Now: $17.00) has to be hard to beat in a race like this and I’m surprised he is big odds. First run for Aaron Purcell came at Hamilton over the mile on a bog, a set up which was terrible when he was with Waller, but he found the line very well late in the piece when second to Bookman. Fitter, up to 2000m…surely he only runs well. Happy to speck each way.

8 Claidheamh Mor (Bet Now: $2.90) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to get past. Dominant return when bolting up at Bendigo before going to Moe last Friday where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but had no answers for the finale of Arktika. Hard fit now and up to 2040m, he’ll take running down.

2 Agnelli (Bet Now: $8.50) is working up to a win for Chris Waller. Needed the run fresh behind Cardinal Gem at Flemington before going to Cranbourne where he was off the bit a fair way out but ran through the pain barrier and stuck on well when third. Track/distance winner and has a good third up record.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 10 Bella Nipotina

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Vultan

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Accountability

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 4, 10, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7

Leg Three: 5, 10

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 8, 11

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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