21/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ballarat, Ballarat Cup day

Ballarat will host their biggest race meeting on Saturday with ten races set down, highlighted by the Ballarat Cup (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.’

Ballarat Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Ballarat Cup

I’m with 12 Harlem Blues (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) for Team Snowden. Market said he was ready to go when resuming down the straight on Cup Day but the tempo was an absolute crawl and nothing from the back was going to figure, including this guy. Much better suited around a bend off a more genuine tempo and had jumped out well prior.

3 Rock Prophet (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a Ray Besanko trained gelding that will love the drop in grade and depth. It was a horrendous watch for those that were on him on Bendigo Cup Day. Nothing went right for him, and I dare say it was more his own doing than the fault of the rider. Got good form, much better than most here, and can easily take this out.

9 Tan Tat Harmony (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is 2/2 this time in and I think she can make it three on the bounce. Very impressive first up winner at Mornington then was even more impressive on a bottomless track on Sale Cup Day. Now has to do it on firmer footing but stable is flying and so is this girl. Think she’s one of the hardest to beat.

This looks a real target race for 3 Jack Regan (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). Had a rating of 81 to start the campaign so the stable has thrown him somewhat in the deep end where he hasn’t measured up and as a result, his rating has come right down and looks very well suited in a race like this, so I hope the market agrees and we can get a decent early price.

12 Wahine Toa (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) is lightly raced and has more upside than most. Maher/Eustace trained mare and we know the record this stable has in 2000m+ races. She gets Blinkers first time after struggling to run straight last time out at the Valley behind all the way winner Eaton. Gets Williams on, good draw and overall, this isn’t a strong race.

2 Yulong Rising (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. Eye catcher two back behind Vegas Knight, which meant he was met with good support from punters on Cup Day at Flemington and he was slightly disappointing I thought behind Sin To Win, but perhaps that class of race was a bit rich. Better suited here and can bounce back.

It’s hard seeing anything other than a win for 1 Shelby Cobra (Bet Now: $1.50 TOP ODDS). He has looked all class since day and really should be unbeaten. He gave them a belting two weeks ago at Flemington under Melham and beat up a quality field. The depth here is actually a touch weaker and really, all things being equal, he wins.

I’m keen to see how 8 Beau Rossa (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) goes. Will Clarken trained three year old that is around 2.5 weeks between runs since giving his rivals a spanking on Cup Day at Morphettville, landing some good size bets. Tick over trial win was sharp and Will Clarken should always be respected when he brings one to Victoria.

6 Tradewind (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) I think will be better suited in at 1400m. Impressive maiden win two back before stepping up to 1200m where the tempo was against him and he battled away okay well, but I think bumped into a Stakes class horse in Star Of Uma. Think that form will hold up well so Tradewind has to be respected.

I’m with 2 Prince Amongst Men (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). He was kept pretty safe in betting when debuting at Bendigo and on face value, he did nothing, but the track was near bottomless and he struggled to pick his feet up. Has had two subsequent jumpouts clockwise here and each time he has really impressed. Think he can take this out.

6 Butter Blonde (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is the filly with race fitness and experience. Ran down the straight on Oaks Day and tried very hard, just missing out on picking up the above average Dosh. She jumped out here last Wednesday and ran third in the quickest of the three jumpouts for the morning. Has early speed and in the right yard.

11 Scorched Earth (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. Daughter of Nicconi that has looked pretty good in her jumpouts, including her clockwise jumpout last Wednesday here when back in the run and closing off strongly under no real pressure. Did get out of the gates cleanly before being snagged back so interesting to see what they do from the draw.

I’d love to see Matty Cartwright be aggressive from the gates aboard 2 All Too Royal (Bet Now: $4.80). This horse tends to race best when on speed and in clear air. Ridden with a sit first up on Manikato Night at the Valley and was plain late I thought behind Sansom, who won during Cup Week to tick the form off. Gets the 3kg claim, rolls forward and is hard to beat.

6 Hi Stranger (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented animal for Shane Fliedner that can measure up here for sure. Resumed over 1100m on Bendigo Cup Day, his home track, and was backed with confidence, with the punters getting it spot on as he finished right over the top for an impressive win. Harder here, but is a proven Saturday horse and has upside to come.

1 Travimyfriend (Bet Now: $8.00) brings fresh legs into this race, having not raced for six weeks since being down the track at Caulfield behind a then very much in form Windstorm, and a couple of runs prior did beat that horse, so he has the right form and if he reproduced what he did when beating Windstorm at Flemington, he likely wins.

2 Zabelarina (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute bomb when produced fresh and I think she can continue her super fresh record with another win. Hasn’t raced since July 18 at Flemington when wide no cover and just feeling the pinch late behind El Questro. Thought the recent Ararat jumpout was a decent enough hitout to suggest she’s hard to beat here.

3 Arctic Shock (Bet Now: $13.00) is a big watch here. Team Meagher trained mare that resumes, having not raced since August 1 when wide and doing work in a very good effort when third to subsequent Stakes winner Sovereign Award. Two Mornington jumpouts have been pretty sharp and she’s a mare who can sprint well fresh.

17 Private Lounge (Bet Now: $16.00) is a tick over three years between runs, so not sure I could back her to win, but for wider multiples, could certainly entertain. Ran on Kyneton Cup Day and worked home very strongly late when third to Uptown Lola. She has a bad racing pattern but has a booming finish when she gets conditions to suit.

Hard to get away from 3 Right You Are (Bet Now: $2.15) for the Price/Kent team. Resumed over 1400m on Stakes Day two weeks ago at Flemington and was really one paced when the sprint went on but picked up and surged hard late when third to Power Scheme, who was beaten a lip in the Eclipse, so the form has already been ticked off, he’s got loads of upside and has carried 62kg to win previously so the weight is no issue.

13 Denero (Bet Now: $19.00) is a key threat for me. Michael Huglin trained gelding that was an impressive first up winner at Cranbourne before going to the Country Final on Oaks Day and just got a mile back from the wide gate but loved the way he found the line behind Do You Reckon. He’s third up now, so should be at peak fitness and should sit much closer in the run.

Surely 2 Kaplumpich (Bet Now: $12.00) can win one soon? He ran very well on Oaks Day at Flemington when a closing second to Do You Reckon, mind you it’s not much comfort for those that locked up the $15 early price aka me. He’s been so consistent this time in without winning…surely his time will come and it could well be this race.

I’m going to have a throw at the stumps in the Cup with 7 Pacodali (Bet Now: $13.00) for Maddie Raymond with Dean Yendall to steer. Ran in the Eclipse last Saturday in a race where he was tucked in behind the speed and though he didn’t quicken, he stayed on well until chopped out of a run late. He won the Eclipse in his previous fourth up run and has a fab record at 2000m. At big odds, can back him each way.

In the fair dinkum department, it’s been a really poorly mapped out prep by the McEvoy camp with 14 Game Keeper (Bet Now: $15.00). They thought he was a Caulfield Cup horse, then a Melbourne Cup horse, but after failures in lead ups, they pulled back and ran over 1800m on Cup Day where he was solid in defeat behind Purple Sector. Back up to 2000m, he appeals.

6 Kiwia (Bet Now: $16.00) is going for some history in search of his third straight Ballarat Cup. His previous two wins in this race saw him come off an eye catching effort. Not sure his run on Cup Day was all that eye catching, but he’s a proven performer here and it is home track, so while recent form says probably not, can’t totally ignore him.

3 The Astrologist (Bet Now: $1.80) has done little wrong this time in for the Corstens camp. Gave them a spanking first up on Geelong Cup Day before stepping up to Listed level on Cup Day down the straight where he looked the winner but was bloused late by Exhilarates. Think that form reads very well for this and is third up, so should be just about at peak fitness.

1 Hawker Hurricane (Bet Now: $6.50) won this race last year as a three year old and I think he can return as a four year old and defend his title. His form from the Autumn/Winter is really hard to resist given it’s pretty much all Stakes form behind quality types. Has had a couple of jumpouts to get ready and with class on his side, he’ll take some beating.

2 Can’t Be Done (Bet Now: $14.00) placed in the Stockade on this day last year and it does look a real target race for this four year old, who pulled up lame in a clear forgive run first up down the Flemington straight behind Leiter. Has a soft draw to use and gets Olly to steer. Got upside to come and has a touch of quality when right.

11 Ocular (Bet Now: $7.00) is a beauty for Shea Eden that is just so genuine and more often than not runs a good race for connections. That was the case once again on Cup Day at Flemington when chasing strongly from the back, finishing second to impressive winner Outrageous. He’s still eligible for a 78 grade race, so running in that 90 race, now back to 84, clearly hard to beat.

19 The Difference (Bet Now: $10.00) can measure up here. He did measure up quite well in the Outrageous race on Cup Day at Flemington. Was ridden somewhat against his pattern, sitting back off them, but he found the well behind the Team Hawkes gelding. Think if they can roll forward here, he’ll take some beating.

5 Titan Blinders (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Team Corstens trained galloper that had a decent run of outs but the stable found the perfect race for him in the China Bowl at Ararat and he was much too good for his rivals. Was 1500m back to 1300m that day so back up to 1400m and landing near the front, he’s a leading contender.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Right You Are

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Jack Regan

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Pacodali

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 7, 14

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Four: 5, 7, 11, 19

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful