21/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Kembla Grange, The Gong day

A strong nine race program has been assembled for Kembla Grange on Saturday, highlighted by the $1 Million ‘The Gong’, run over the mile. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

The Gong 🏆: View the Field and Odds for The Gong

6 Air To Air (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a Jason Coyle trained mare that receives more bad luck than good luck, some of it her own doing, but gee she was stiff two weeks ago at Rosehill. Not crazy to say she should have won, but nothing went right for her in the straight when fourth to Fortress Command. Bursting to win a race and she gets her chance.

3 Atlantic King (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) comes back 100m in trip, but he does look to have a touch of quality about him. Ran over the mile on Cup Day where he looked a good thing on paper and he duly saluted under a confident steer from Jason Collett. Back to 1500m from the mile is interesting, but he’s talented and Gone Bye franked the form on Friday night.

2 Bigboyroy (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but he does have talent for the Waller camp. Resumed over 1400m on the Kenso track and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Enchanted Heart, finishing fourth. That mare came out to win at Rosehill, so the form reads well and track should be dry for him.

I think you have to believe what you see with 5 Activation (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS), who is flying since joining Kody Nestor. Should be 3/3 this prep had he not been disinterested first up, but has made up for it with a couple of sharp wins and the clock has backed up the eye. Racing like he will eat up the mile and is clearly the one to beat.

15 Diorissima (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is still a maiden but Jean Dubois has a talented filly on his hands here. This girl ran in the Highway two weeks ago where she didn’t appear 100% at all on the wet ground but liked the way she found the line in defeats. Get an extra 100m and firmer footing here, so think she’ll take some beating here.

13 Zarafah (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is one I could include in multiples. This girl was a few weeks between when racing on Goulburn Cup Day. She had the suck run behind the speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite get there when third to Rent A Rock. Not sure I could back this girl to win, but for exotics, could certainly throw her in.

He might want one more, but can’t let 8 Sound Of Cannons (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) go around without me. Former UK stayer that made his Australian debut in the Rosehill Cup where he was near last in the run throughout but loved the way he found the line late behind Costello in a good effort. Drops to a 78, upside, fitter…does he want 2400m now? I’ll take the odds and find out if he’s sharp enough.

I think 11 Accountability (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) can win again. He was bolters odds when winning at Rosehill a fortnight back, but I thought there was a bit of substance to the win given he was only second up and he showed decent change up speed when Cejay asked for the effort. Third up with upside to come, up to 2000m, he rates highly.

3 Navy Cross (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is hard to beat here. WaterBott trained galloper that was on the seven day back up when racing over 1900m at Rosehill three weeks ago when on speed and fighting on strongly when second to impressive winner Archanna. Seems a much better horse on top of the ground and up to 2000m, he appeals.

8 Hulk (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) will get his chance to launch over the top of these late. He ran over 1100m at Rosehill three weeks ago where he got back off the speed before peeling wider and launching late, just missing out on picking up Switched. Fast run races seem to be his go and he’s becoming quite effective over these short course trips.

7 Destination (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) will love getting back to firmer footing and back to 1000m with fresh legs. Four weeks between runs since finishing fourth in the Brian Crowley behind The Bopper, struggling at 1200m on wet ground. Gets a much better set up here and has run well against the older horses this prep. Hard to beat.

2 Miss Invincible (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) can run an improved race at odds. This mare trialled up well prior to resuming at Randwick where she didn’t get much luck from the wide gate, so I’d be putting a line through that outing behind Blazing Miss. Tick over trial was sharp. Think she’s going well. Just wants firm footing.

Looks an ideal race for the James Cummings trained 1 Pandemic (Bet Now: $3.70). Been kept on ice since finishing off with real purpose first up at Warwick Farm on October 7 when third to Villami in a race that is riddled with subsequent Stakes form. Tick over trial was quite good and a fast run 1200m on a big track, dry deck…looks the one.

If there is a total blowout here, I think it’s 3 Stephan (Bet Now: $34.00). On paper, it was just a run on Cup Day at Randwick, but his closing splits were very good and was warming to the task late in an eye catching effort. His best form is at 1100m, so 1200m is a query on paper, but off the last start effort, he’s a knockout threat.

5 Juventus (Bet Now: $16.00) takes on a strong field, but he is capable of running a forward race here fresh. He resumes, having not raced since June 20 at Randwick where not much luck went his way and should have fought the finish out behind Ballet Master. Trials indicate he might need the run, but he’s a very genuine racehorse.

13 Macushla (Bet Now: $19.00) looks really hard to beat here. Chris Waller trained grey mare that made her Australian debut from NZ when racing over 1300m at Rosehill two weeks ago. She was near the speed throughout and despite one of the first off the bit, she found plenty under pressure, only to be bloused late by Misteed. Fitter, on firmer ground, she can bounce back.

2 Intrepidacious (Bet Now: $4.20) will make sure this is a truly run 1200m. John O’Shea trained mare that resumed over 1200m at Warwick Farm and she was impressive, leading throughout and although getting the staggers late, she was able to cling on. Tick over trials were sharp…the query has to be a strong 1200m and whether or not she’ll hold on.

16 Turnstyle (Bet Now: $10.00) is better placed at 1200m on firmer footing IMO so think she can bounce back. Was a real eye catcher first up at this track/distance behind Mookareena before racing on a bog track at Rosehill over 1300m where she led throughout until the final few strides when bloused late by Misteed. Think she can bounce back against these.

15 Bottega (Bet Now: $9.50) is a bet here. He was looming to win the Golden Eagle but on that bottomless track, the wheels were spinning, but he still kept on and was very good in defeat when fifth to Colette. Gets back onto a firmer surface, fast run mile, minimum weight…if that last run hasn’t busted him, gee I think he’ll run a beauty.

Very wary of 11 Purple Sector (Bet Now: $6.00). He comes back to NSW after a successful hit and run mission on Cup Day at Flemington where he was backed as if unbeatable and despite appearing drunk racing the Melbourne way, class got him home. Freshened up for a fast run mile I do like and he will be quite strong at the end.

10 Positive Peace (Bet Now: $31.00) should be suited up to the mile for Bjorn Baker. The race looked set up perfect for her in the Hot Danish when parked behind a solid speed battle, but she had her chance and was a bit plain in the straight behind Savatiano. Has won up to 1550m, so 1600m here is okay, hard fit and racing very well for the most part.

11 Ulusaba (Bet Now: $9.50) is a hard fit, in form WaterBott tough nut that will make sure this is a truly run mile. Ran last Saturday at Newcastle when on speed with the big weight and he fought on bravely behind Super, running third. Drops 5kg from that run and as a whole, this isn’t a strong 88. He can lead, dominate from the front and give a great sight.

You’d like to think there is more to come with 8 Elaborate (Bet Now: $6.00). He got conditions to suit fresh at Rosehill three weeks ago but still had to take advantage of it and he really attacked the line late to nab Stockman. That form wasn’t exactly franked the following Saturday, but this guy was first up with improvement to come.

12 Betcha Flying (Bet Now: $8.00) is back on top of the ground and I think she can be a big improver here. Ran over the mile a few weeks back at Randwick and really struggled on the bottomless track when down the track behind Icebath, who arguably should have won a Golden Eagle a week later, so the form reads well…just a while between wins.

10 Greek Hero (Bet Now: $2.80) on top in the get out. The Freedman camp trains this gelding, who was scratched from a much easier race at Rosehill on Friday in preference for this. He’s a dry tracker and his two trials leading in have been quite good. Impressive winner first up last prep at this track, and from a good gate with Nash steering, he’ll do me.

4 Misteed… (Bet Now: $7.50) how often do you see these bludgers finally win one race and then win again straight after? Can Misteed do it? The Blinkers really switched her on when she got the job done a fortnight ago at Rosehill, wearing those near the speed down in a tight finish. Can she stretch it out to 1400m? If she can, hard to beat.

This is one of the easier races that 3 Tonsor (Bet Now: $67.00) has contested in some time so if he’s going to find positive form, it’s here. The track was too wet for him three weeks ago at Rosehill behind Switched. Much better placed here and any hint of his old form would see him win this, so I’d watch the market with him.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Activation

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Air To Air

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 15 Bottega

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 9, 12, 13, 16

Leg Two: 4, 7, 10, 11, 15

Leg Three: 8, 9, 11, 12

Leg Four: 3, 4, 7, 10

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful