22/2/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Blue Diamond Stakes day

One of the better racedays throughout the year at Caulfield is Blue Diamond Day and the 2020 rolls around this Saturday. Nine races, three at Group l level, including the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and Futurity Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Going the way of 9 Aktau (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS). Michael Moroney trains this potential Caulfield Cup aspirant, who ran over 1800m here three weeks ago where he looked drunk around Caulfield first time, and perhaps not 100% happy on the bog surface, but balanced up late and was very good behind Just Benjamin. Firmer footing, fitter, 2000m, plenty to like.

7 Just Benjamin (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) looks to have really good scope left for this prep. Anthony Freedman trained import who has had two runs in Australia, both at Caulfield. Latest of the two runs came over three weeks aago where he led throughout under Olly and it was the ride that won the race. Looked in trouble, but he lifted it over the line. Up to 2000m, he’s really likeable.

5 Beau Balmain (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is the interesting one. Has teased to be a good horse since coming over from Germany but for the most part, he’s been really disappointing. Resumed over the mile here a few weeks ago and yes he had the 60kg, but still would have liked to see him do a bit more. Up to 2000m and fitter. Including him in multiples, but couldn’t back him to win.

3 Adelaide Ace (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) looks one of the better bets on the card. Really progressive three year old for Lindsey Smith that gave his older rivals a spanking first up over 1400m at Werribee. Remaining at 1400m in the Autumn Stakes two weeks ago behind Mircophone was probably the difference in him winning and losing I feel. Crying out for more ground, which he gets here, and the depth isn’t as strong.

Good little test here for 2 Nonconformist (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) but the Grahame Begg stable is absolutely flying at the moment and the way this bloke has won his past couple, 1800m should be fine. Ran over the mile here three weeks ago and admittedly didn’t take on the strongest bunch of three year olds, but he put them away impressively and Hi Stranger won last Friday night, so there is a bit of substance to the form reference.

4 Think ‘N’ Fly (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has the race fitness as well under the belt despite the lack of class compared to some of these. He has won his past two, both coming at Sandown Lakeside over the mile and each time he has showed good ticker when on speed and fighting on strongly. Has had a quiet trial at Wodonga to tune up, lands near the speed and will give a good sight.

2 Pandemic (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS) is four weeks between runs for James Cummings since scoring an electric win at this trip at Randwick, helped by a lovely rail hugging ride from Tommy Berry. The overall form from that race subsequent does look suspect, and he has an awful racing pattern, but he has such an explosive finale that it may well get him home.

Not dismissing 3 Spend (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) off one run. His recent Flemington jumpout suggested he would need the hitout when resuming in the Manfred and that’s how it panned out. He was held, but far from disgraced behind Super Seth. Does need to improve big time to win, but he’s in the right stable and gets a much better scenario this time around.

6 Express Pass (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) has always had some decent wraps on him since day one but for the most part, hasn’t quite lived up to them. Resumed down the Flemington straight on Rapid Racing Day and closed off strongly from the back, just missing out on picking up Excess Funds. Suited on his home track, up to 1200m and if the speed is on, he’ll be strong late.

1 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is favourite at around the $4.50 mark, but I reckon that’s more than acceptable. Ken Keys trained mare that was excellent when resuming in the Bellmaine behind Sylvia’s Mother, clocking the best late splits of the race. Drew 12 there and from gate two this time, she can sit much closer in the run, and up to 1400m, she’s really hard to beat.

2 Aristia (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a classy mare for the Ellerton/Zahra team that resumes. This girl had a decent Spring without winning, highlighted by her Group l placing two back behind star mare Melody Belle before being outclassed a week later in the Mackinnon. Recent jumpout was decent and 1400m first up tells me she’s forward enough to run a positive race.

7 Neighbourhood (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) looks a key chance here. Put together three on the bounce to start the prep before racing over 1400m at Flemington a few ago where she wanted to lay in quite badly and arguably cost herself the win when a close up fifth to Power Dream. Freshened up towards a 1600m Mares race I dare say, but has residual fitness to be a contender here.

Going the way of 1 Acting (Bet Now: $3.30). Trent Busuttin was very bullish about this filly, who resumed in the Kevin Hayes two weeks ago, but just did a bit too much work near the speed, which took away her sprint, but she was still good in defeat behind How Womantic. Up to 1400m, fitter, she can land on speed and prove hard to beat.

4 Southbank (Bet Now: $3.50) is an Anthony Freedman trained filly that went within a lip of winning the Thousand Guineas. Spelled and resumed in the Kevin Hayes where she was back off the speed and while she was never really a winning threat, she stuck on pretty well in defeat behind How Womantic. Up to 1400m, fitter and is a leading chance.

8 Lunar Light (Bet Now: $17.00) is on the seven day back up for Will Clarken after racing in the Vanity last Saturday at Flemington and if you were on, gee it was an ugly watch. Never really got clear air in the straight to let down. At the same time, not as if she was bolting, but definitely finishes closer. Always have to respect the stable.

Just have to keep trusting that this three year old crop is special and with that, going with 8 Super Seth (Bet Now: $2.70). His win first up here three weeks ago in the Manfred was outstanding given he was first up on testing ground over an unsuitable trip, but his class really came to the fore. From all reports, he’s been working super since and why not have a crack at the older horses.

1 Kolding (Bet Now: $3.40) has to be rated highly here. He’s pretty much got the best form of any horse in Australia as it stands at the moment after what he did in the Spring, highlighted of course by his stunning finale to take out the Golden Eagle. Resumed three weeks ago in the Expressway and was a definite pass mark behind Standout, with Alizee ticking that form off in the Apollo last Saturday. 1400m, fitter, he’ll take some beating.

1100m-1400m isn’t the best of set ups for 4 Wild Planet (Bet Now: $23.00), but he is a talented gelding for Team Hawkes. He resumed in the Rubiton and really liked the way he finished his race off despite being in restricted room late in the piece behind Anaheed. He does no work from the gate and if this becomes a sit/sprint, he does have a turn of foot.

2 Hanseatic (Bet Now: $2.60) is on top, but he’s not the good thing that most are declaring I feel. Gave them a spanking in the Preview before producing an unbelievable finale in the Prelude to get up and beat Rulership. He’s got the runs on the board and is the one to beat on form. Do I want to take the short-ish odds? No, but can’t tip against him.

6 Rulership (Bet Now: $7.50) can easily turn the tables on Hanseatic without surprising. Really impressive debut win at Randwick before attempting to lead throughout in the Prelude and gave a really good kick, but was bloused late by Hanseatic. I think with cover and a bunny to chase, he’ll be more effective, and we know Team Snowden are masters when it comes to juveniles and a target race.

Not dropping off 12 Muntaseera (Bet Now: $8.50). Yes, Letzbeglam was dominant in winning the girls division of the Prelude, but I just felt that Muntaseera wasn’t 100% comfortable tight between runners and did work to the line pretty well when clear. Think a fast run 1200m will suit her ideally. Just hoping she can get to the outside of horses and finish off.

Gordon Richards couldn’t win two majors in seven days could he? Well I think he can thanks to Gytrash last Saturday and here with 10 Bold Star (Bet Now: $10.00). Thought his Rubiton effort two weeks ago here was full of merit, closing off strongly against the track pattern for the meeting behind Anaheed. Right down in the weights, sits off a fast speed and can produce an unbelievable finale.

3 Bivouac (Bet Now: $2.80) looks one of the hardest to beat. High class three year old for James Cummings that resumes, having not raced since the Spring where he had a pretty busy Spring, highlighted by a win in the Golden Rose and last start when second to Exceedance in the Coolmore. Has looked outstanding at the trials/jumpouts and we know the record the three year olds are having this season against the older gallopers.

2 Zoutori (Bet Now: $21.00) resumes for the Ellerton/Zahra stable and I can see him running a big race here at odds. Teased to win a good race during the Spring, and did so via the Bobbie Lewis, but when tested at a higher level, he ran okay without winning. Should do no work from the inside gate and if the breaks go his way, he can finish over the top.

4 Kings Will Dream (Bet Now: $2.70) is a beauty for Chris Waller and should take a power of beating here off his resumption in the CF Orr where he got back off the speed before peeling wider and surging hard late, just missing out on picking up Alabama Express. Up to 1800m with that run under the belt, he looks clearly the one to beat on current form.

9 Miss Siska (Bet Now: $4.40) is facing a bit more depth here, but it was hard to ignore her first up win two weeks ago in the Carlyon Cup. Was wide no cover throughout but looked to be bolting under Lane before shooting clear in the straight and holding a safe margin to the line. Up to 1800m should be fine and she does have a turn of foot compared to most of these.

2 Harlem (Bet Now: $12.00) is heading towards a third straight Australian Cup and he appears on target for it if his resumption in the Carlyon Cup is any guide. He should have gone close to winning. Just had no luck at all in the straight and pretty much was a barrier trial except the final 75m. Up to 1800m, fitter, he’s ticking along beautifully.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 3 Adelaide Ace

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 4 Kings Will Dream

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 10 Bold Star

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 8

Leg Two: 2, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10

Leg Four: 4

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