22/5/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Lord Mayors Cup day

Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill on Saturday where it is Lord Mayors Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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13 Monterey Zar (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) clearly has an engine under the hood given the stable have persisted with him. This will be start six at six years of age. He looked the good thing of the Wagga Carnival. Thought Heywood rode a bit cute on him and in the end, he was lucky to get there, just. That was his first run in four weeks, so he’s got improvement and stable has had good success this year with Highways.

1 More Sundays (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) has the best form in this race, clearly. The knock, and I dare say only one, is the jockey booking. Campbell Rawiller is a gun, but he hasn’t set the world on fire since venturing to NSW. But the horse is flying. He was very good in the Highway at Randwick won by Ahead Start and the key to him does appear to be bring him to the races with fresh legs so four weeks between runs I like.

6 Katgully Red (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a proven Highway performer who looks on track to win another. Sat near the speed in the Gosford Highway two weeks ago and stuck to the task pretty well I thought when second to impressive winner Last Chance Dance. Doesn’t want the track too wet and only has to hold his form to go close.

Thousand dual acceptors…great fun doing the form for this race. I do like the look of 7 Overmann (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) for Team Hawkes. His two runs back from a spell have come over 1200m at Canterbury. Snicked back from the wide gate fresh and was good late behind Cork Harbour. Then sat on a strong speed last time out and was the lone survivor of those on speed, just getting pipped late by Astrologer, but he showed fight. He can land in a gun spot from the draw and prove hard to beat.

3 Kalino (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) can be an improver here at odds. This colt resumed at Gosford. Stable said they would go forward on him but that move went out the window after a tardy beginning. Then raced wide throughout and really, just forget he went around. Just one soft trial leading in off a four week break, so expecting improvement.

Good little test here for 4 Blow Dart (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) but he has earned a crack in town. Has won two of his three career outings, the latest being over 1100m at Mudgee when leading throughout and though challenged, he drew clear late and was too good. Harder here, but he’ll put himself on speed and give himself every chance.

4 Wairere Falls (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Savabeel for Chris Waller resuming. Better suited over further, but I do like him resuming at 1500m, where it doesn’t seem like they are wasting a run to get fitness into the legs. Did a good job last prep in races stronger than this, and his two trials to get ready have been encouraging.

5 Ruby Tuesday (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a Gary Portelli trained mare who should run a positive race here. Probably ridden a touch too warm at Hawkesbury three weeks ago and that took away something from her finale I felt when down the track behind Steely. Think with a more conservative steer, she’ll be more effective.

3 Serena looks (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) like she will be winning races for Robert Pearse. Former Kiwi mare that made her Australian debut three weeks back at Hawkesbury. She was never really a winning threat, but she kept finding and was strong late behind Impasse. Fitter and up to 1500m, she is likeable.

Can you trust 6 Blondeau (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS)? If you can, back him with confidence here. It was an electric win at Gosford, sitting off the speed before Tommy eased him wider and away he went, showing a sharp turn of speed to win and win with something in hand. Is this the prep that he goes right on with it?

2 I Am Power (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) should prove hard to beat here for Mark Newnham. Former Hong Kong galloper that made his Australian debut at Gosford two weeks ago and I loved the way he found the line despite not the best of paths early on in the straight when second to dominant winner Blondeau. With natural improvement off that, he’ll take some beating.

4 Smart Image (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is big odds here I feel for a nice three year old. Team Snowden trained galloper that has been kept on the fresh side since resuming on the Kenso track at Randwick. Never a winning threat given the race shape but did finish off quite well. His best is good enough to be dangerous.

I was quite taken by the first up win of 5 Cafe Royal (Bet Now: $8.00) at Newcastle over 1200m. Was wide early but Dylan Gibbons pushed the button to go forward and find the front. She was there to be run down at the top of the straight but she went into another gear and was dominant. Has always promised to be Saturday class. Hope she can confirm that here.

6 Exotic Ruby (Bet Now: $5.00) has a good second up record and should prove hard to beat on her home track. Resumed two weeks ago at Gosford where she was just off the speed from the good draw and tried hard. Just lacked the fitness to finish it off when a close up third to Stellar Pauline. Yet to miss a place in three second up runs, so she’s hard to beat here.

2 Starla (Bet Now: $10.00) has a bit of quality on her side compared to most here. She is a proven Saturday class mare whereas some of these are most midweek or provincial grade. Has April Rain, Snapdancer and Private Eye, which is blacktype form, so it clearly reads well. Just a matter of where she gets to from the draw.

9 Green Flash (Bet Now: $5.00) is a nice horse. Not sure he’s nice enough for a Derby but he’s talented. Just showed no turn of foot at all on the Kenso track last time out but stayed on and was strong late. He’ll eat up the 2000m here on the bigger track and has got more upside than most engaged.

7 My Delight (Bet Now: $17.00) should love the rise to 2000m on a bigger track. All three runs this time in have been super. Race shape was against her at Newcastle two back before racing at Canterbury. Just took a while to wind up but was good late when running second. Needs to win this to warrant a trip to Brisbane for the Oaks. I think she can win.

13 Savagery (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who does appear well suited at 2000m. Just found the tight track of Canterbury not to his liking but was good late I thought. Not sure he’s up to the level of a Queensland Derby, but he can win this race and similar races at this level for the next few weeks. Hard to beat.

4 Costello (Bet Now: $15.00) looks to be sneaky flying for David Payne. Trialled well prior to resuming in the Hawkesbury Cup. He got a fair way back in the run in what was a real sit/sprint affair. He did a really good job to get as close as he did I thought. Might need one more, but stable is in form and he’s got more upside than most.

14 Parry Sound (Bet Now: $3.40) lacks the class of some of these but he gets good weight relief, a senior jock takes over and he draws soft. Can make a good case to say he should have won two weeks back at Gosford. Just had to do that little bit extra work and I reckon that beat him in the end. Knockout hope.

1 Wu Gok (Bet Now: $19.00) would love a drop of rain to hit. He is a swimmer and loves to dominate on speed. Had good specking when racing two weeks ago in the Gosford Cup. Attempted to lead throughout and gave a decent kick. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Polly Grey. He’s getting towards peak fitness and will be out of trouble.

11 Ellsberg (Bet Now: $1.75) is the very interesting runner. At this stage of his career, he does look to be a flat track bully. It’s lead or bust it seems. Dominant winner all the way fresh in the South Pacific, which ensured he was a hard favourite in the Hawkesbury Guineas. He couldn’t get the lead, instead sitting outside Acrophobic, and I thought he was plain in the straight. Banking on an aggressive ride to find the front, get control and prove hard to get past.

7 Opacity (Bet Now: $19.00) is a hard horse to catch but I reckon he’s sneaky flying for John O’Shea. Trialled up pretty well prior to resuming three weeks back at Hawkesbury. I think he should have gone close to winning. Just had no luck in the straight behind Impasse. Is he back on track? I’m saying yes.

This might be a prep run for 14 Archanna (Bet Now: $8.50) but she has talent. Chris Waller trained mare that is several weeks between runs, having not raced since March 25 when third to stablemate Achiever, who has since run well at Stakes level and won last Saturday. Two tick over trials to get her up to fitness, so watch the market.

1 Approach Discreet (Bet Now: $6.50) is a proven performer here and with a drop of rain, I think he will take a power of beating here. He ran three weeks ago at Sandown over 1700m. Didn’t quicken when asked for the effort but stayed on and was good when third to Spring Choice. If the rain does arrive and we get a genuine wet track, I think he’s the one to beat.

The Ryan/Alexiou camp have a nice one on their hands here with 5 Steely (Bet Now: $4.80). He’s nothing flash but he loves to dig in when required and that was the case when winning three weeks ago at Hawkesbury. When the race was there to be won, he stood up and was very good late in winning. I think he can win again.

7 Saigon (Bet Now: $16.00) is bursting to win a race. Looked like it could well come at Hawkesbury three weeks ago when sitting off the pace, and while she worked home well, just no match for Steely. I think a bit of juice in the track will be ideal for this mare and only has to hold her form to go close here.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 6 Blondeau

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 11 Ellsberg

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Costello

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 7, 9, 10, 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 14

Leg Three: 7, 11

Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 7, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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