Top class racing takes centre stage at Caulfield this Saturday, where we see the running of the $1 Million Sportingbet Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m), with the betting dominated by the two Sydney youngsters, Rubick and Earthquake. Hot on their heels is the promising colt for Mark Kavanagh, Chivalry.
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Race One (13:40) : Perri Cutten Handicap (90) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Freshwater Storm (Best Odds: $5.50) on top for me in the opener. Ran some excellent races during the Spring, with a highlight being a win in a heat of the Subzero Challenge, then finishing a gallant eighth in the final on Oaks Day. He then went on to win at Caulfield before finishing fourth at Flemington. Reason why he is on top is because he trialled so well last week at Cranbourne under a very good hold from Childs, who retains the ride. Happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: Finishing Card (Best Odds: $7.50) was far from disgraced in the Orr Stakes when fifth to Moment Of Change, beaten just over six lengths. Drops back to a benchmark race, and gets in so well at the weights after the claim. More than worthy threat here.
Roughie: Final Jest (Best Odds: $5.50) broke through for a well deserved victory over this track/distance a couple of weeks back. What I liked about the win was the fact he came off the bit before the turn, and was under pressure, but he picked up in the straight and was strong through the line. Tumbles down to 52.5kg and can certainly handle the step back up to Saturday grade.
$250 Freshwater Storm Free Bet
Race Two (14:15) : Zeditave Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen to see how Notlistenin’tome (Best Odds: $1.85) returns. Looked like a top class youngster during the Spring, culminating with an excellent second to Zoustar in the Coolmore Stud. Trialled very sharply last week at Rosehill, suggesting he is certainly forward enough to win first up.
Big Danger: Forgive and forget that Lion Of Belfort (Best Odds: $6.50) went around in the Rubiton. The stablemate, Lankan Rupee, stacked them up in front while Lion of Belfort was out the back and held up. The leader kicked hard and bolted in, while this horse never really got a chance to get going. Trial prior to that was pretty good, drawn the paint and Oliver is back on board now.
Roughie: Consorting (Best Odds: $16.00) was stiff last week at Mornington when badly held up behind runners and never being extended. He performed quite well during the Spring, and while he isn’t in the same class as the top tip, he can still be quite competitive provided he gets normal luck.
$250 Notlistenin’tome Free Bet
Race Three (14:50) : Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Marianne (Best Odds: $2.20) looks the way to go for me. Loomed to win the Kevin Hayes, bursting through and looked as if she was going to go bang, but fitness and Spirits Dance kicking hard just got to her late. She should derive enormous benefit from that run, plenty of upside in her and Williams gets back on board. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Bound For Earth (Best Odds: $4.50) was a solid top pick in betting when a disappointing fourth, from a punting point of view, in the Kevin Hayes. She had a nice sit off the pace, but when peeled wide, she didn’t really let down. She just grinded to the line, like a filly who wants further, which she gets here. She does have a win over Guelph, so class is on her side.
Roughie: Patricia Dawn (Best Odds: $11.00) ran a ripper in the Kevin Hayes, sitting well back near the inside and poking her way through narrow gaps to finish off nicely and grab third. She is another who has upside, and is drawn better for her racing pattern of getting back and running on. A win certainly wouldn’t surprise.
$250 Marianne Free Bet
Race Four (15:25) : Autumn Classic 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: I rate Deliberate (Best Odds: $4.00) as one of these up and coming stayers who could go on and win the Derby in Sydney. He is showing a great deal of promise and he has only been on the track twice. Should have bolted in here on debut, but got flattened 200m and losing all momentum, then went to Geelong and was very strong at the end of 1700m. As I said, I think he can measure up to the Derby hence why he is on top here.
Big Danger: Bring Something (Best Odds: $4.60) is one of the better maiden gallopers going around in Australia at the moment, with his highlight being a gallant seventh in the Victorian Derby to Polanski. He resumed in the Autumn Stakes and again wanted to lay in badly. The ability is there, but the lights are not on in the head. Once they switch on, he could be a really good horse.
Roughie: I like the fact that Chris Waller has sent Vilanova (Best Odds: $9.50) away from Sydney and down to Melbourne. He has been okay without being great in recent times, but racing anti clockwise could switch this horse on given his career best performance was at stakes company at Te Rapa back in New Zealand.
$250 Deliberate Free Bet
Race Five (16:00) : Carlton Draught Peter Young Stakes 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Simple- If Fiorente (Best Odds: $2.40) is fit enough, he beats these and beats these easily. He was unbelievable during the Spring, culminating in a famous win on the first Tuesday in November. He has looked quite forward in exhibition gallops despite the fact his grand final is in late April. I’ll be shocked if he gets rolled.
Big Danger: Star Rolling (Best Odds: $6.00) loomed to win the Carlyon Cup over the mile here last start, but just couldn’t quite get past Chase The Rainbow. That run should have topped him off beautifully for this, and we know how much ability he has. The fitness edge is a massive advantage for his supporters, so if there was going to be a shock, it could come from him.
Roughie: Foreteller (Best Odds: $6.00) was one of only two horses to make ground in the Orr Stakes, so for a horse who last ran in the Melbourne Cup, that is an indication he has come back in outstanding order. I think the Australian Cup will suit him better than this, but he does have the run under his belt and has performed well here in the past.
$250 Fiorente Free Bet
Race Six (16:35) : Cathay Pacific Futurity Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Laying Moment Of Change (Best Odds: $3.20) big time here given there is much more depth and more agile horses engaged. Going for the Queenslander Sizzling, who had his first run for Chris Waller in the Expressway Stakes and was fantastic, hitting the line better than anything else for third to Appearance. The only negative is that he has drawn an inside gate, which isn’t his go, but his fresh run was too good to ignore.
Big Danger: Bull Point (Best Odds: $3.00) was given an absolute gem steer by Oliver to win here first up in the Manfred Stakes. When he was asked to sprint, he showed a beautiful turn of foot. We know how good he is eg Golden Rose, so don’t worry about the class factor, and he does get the pull in the weights.
Roughie: I’ll be looking for Lidari (Best Odds: $14.00) to work home nicely late as he progresses during the Autumn. He ran a couple of rippers during the Spring, winning here at this track/distance before stretching Fiorente all the way when a narrow third in the Dato Tan Chin Nam. Must for exotics.
$250 Moment Of Change Free Bet
Race Seven (17:10) : Sportingbet Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Sticking with what I’ve seen and like and that lies with Rubick (Best Odds: $3.15). He was unbelievable in the Prelude. Wasn’t the best away, dug up to hold a forward spot, eventually led at a cracking tempo, kicked on the corner and safely held his rivals. That run should top him off perfectly for his grand final and is drawn really well I think because It will allow Avdulla to have a few strides to assess what he does. Looks a star and I’ll be in his corner for this.
Big Danger: I think Earthquake (Best Odds: $3.80) is better than Rubick, but the barrier draw sways me towards Rubick. In saying that, Earthquake showed a dazzling turn of foot in her Prelude win, really taking charge 200m and winning like the filly she has been compared to, Guelph. Damian Browne is one of the best in the business, so no doubt he’ll give this filly every chance, but will she give the colt too much of a start?
Roughie: Chivalry (Best Odds: $7.50) I think will just about win the Caulfield Guineas in the Spring. He has three year old written all over him. He got a long way back from the barrier in the Prelude and motored home late for third behind Rubick. He has the barrier draw advantage, and will be powerful at the end of 1200m. He is a more than worthy threat.
$250 Rubick Free Bet
Race Eight (17:45) : Sportingbet Oakleigh Plate 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: I see this as a two horse race between Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $3.50) and Knoydart. Sticking with the former given he was just so, so impressive in the Rubiton, leading all the way and spanking his rivals without being fully gone for by Newitt. Should spear over from the barrier, lead these and take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Knoydart (Best Odds: $6.00) has been teasing us for a while as to whether or not he was up to this, but he has confirmed he certainly is at his past two runs, winning the Canterbury Classic and Hareeba Stakes. The latter was just a dazzling display, sitting wide with no cover against the bias, yet drew away and bolted in like a star. If Lankan Rupee isn’t going to win, it’ll be this bloke.
Roughie: Bel Sprinter (Best Odds: $14.00) is the proven Group 1 performer here, winning the Galaxy last year before placing behind Black Caviar, then running second at Singapore. Didn’t really fire during the Spring, but has trialled and wasn’t too bad in the latest of those, suggesting he could be ready to show us what he did at Rosehill last year.
$250 Lankan Rupee Free Bet
Race Nine (18:20) : Mannerism Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Very hard to be patient on a big race day, but if you do have it, wait and back Arinosa (Best Odds: $3.80), because she just looks the good thing of the day, not just here but across Australia. Forget she went around here a couple of weeks back. Drawing inside and trying to go between runners isn’t her go. Drawn wide, small field, fitter and up to 1400m just sets up a victory for this wonderful mare.
Big Danger: Keep De Rose (Best Odds: $15.00) resumes here after a successful Spring, being stakes placed during Cup week the highlight. She performs very well fresh and strikes a winnable race if the top tip isn’t on her game.
Roughie: Bippo No Bungus (Best Odds: $15.00) worked home really well late here a couple of weeks back at huge odds. Her best form is over slightly further, but the way she went here, she certainly can’t be left out of betting combos.
$250 Arinosa Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Nine Number 1 Arinosa (Best Odds: $5.00)
Next Best: Race Eight Number 3 Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $3.20)
Best Roughie: Race Four Number 11 Deliberate (Best Odds: $4.40)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 9
Leg Two: 2, 4, 12, 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9, 11
Leg Four: 1
$50 Investment = 83.33% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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