23/11/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Kembla Grange, The Gong day

The biggest meeting ever held at Kembla Grange will take place this Saturday with the inaugural edition of the $1 Million The Gong (1600m) the drawcard across nine races. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I’m keen on 2 Destination (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS). Godolphin have been quiet so far this season with their juveniles, but off the trials, the next few weeks, I think they’re going to unveil some handy ones. This colt has had two trials in readiness for start one and loved the way he has looked in both trials, doing everything right and there has been change up speed when asked for an effort. Think he’s the one to bet on.

6 Mrs Maisel (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Hinchinbrook for Mark Newnham who is on debut. She’s had two trials to prepare for start one, the latest seeing her win over 700m at Randwick when leading throughout and running solid enough time relative to the morning. Stable is just flying at the moment and they do have a good record with their juveniles. She’s a leading contender.

1 Col’s Law (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS) is a Salade gelding for the Price camp that is having start one. This guy trialled last Wednesday here over 800m and looked to go about his business quite nicely when a narrow second in okay time. Rare to see this stable produce an early two year old and at metro level as well, so he creates some interest and could be one for multiples.

4 Senrina Tide (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is worthy of another chance. This Matty Dunn trained mare was well specked in the market when resuming over 1350m at Doomben two weeks ago and on face value, she was awful behind Maslow, but the race shape and tempo was against her and those behind had no chance. Has a good second up record, so she can bounce back here for sure.

Couldn’t back 8 Acquittal (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) to win with stolen money but the set up is here for him to find positive form. Good two back behind Plonka in a Rosehill Highway before backing up a week later when in the market and running okay without setting the world on fire behind Hit The Target. Not the strongest Highway this, he draws an inside gate and J Mac takes over.

Very interested to see how 16 Jungle Book (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) goes for Trevor Sutherland. He ran over the mile at Wagga last time out where he was heavily backed and once Bryan Murphy was able to take advantage of the inside gate, it was game over and he bolted up. Form out of that race has been ticked off and this is a winnable Highway with a repeat effort.

I’m with 2 Mr Reckless (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) for Chris Waller. He’s on the seven day back up after racing over 1500m at Newcastle last Saturday where he was back in the run and battled away without really threatening, but considering the winner ran 33 and change for the final 600m, Mr Reckless had no chance. Up to 2000m, back in depth, keen on him running well.

Up to 2000m, I think, will suit 6 Mangione (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). Tough winner over the mile two back at Gosford before racing over 1800m at Rosehill two weeks ago when off speed before peeling wide and looming to win, but couldn’t get past California Longbow, who was ridden a treat. Mangione has run well at 2000m+ as a three year old, so hopefully that holds him in good stead for this.

1 Master Shuhood (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is another at silly odds here I feel. He ran last Saturday in the House Of Cartier race and I thought his run had plenty of merit to it given he was five weeks between runs and he did parade quite fresh, looking like he needed the run and that’s how it panned out. Like he backs up straight away, the claim for Brock Ryan and drops from 88 to 78.

7 Lucicello (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) looks the one to beat here. Just had one soft trial leading into her resumption two weeks ago over 1100m at Rosehill when sitting last in the small field and with a good tempo in front, she was always looking the winner and got the job done and clocked some good late splits in the process. Looks to be good speed once again, fitter, up to 1200m…she looks the pony to bet on.

11 Jen Rules (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited on the bigger track. Just got into a tricky spot after a tardy start first up at Rosehill and given Miss Invincible controlled things in front, those from behind really didn’t get a look in, including Jen Rules, but she stuck to the task pretty well in defeat. Can sit closer in the run with a better start and she’s one of the leading chances.

4 Pumpkin Pie… (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) the last time she won a race, Noah was building an Ark. Couldn’t back her to win with stolen money, but I reckon she’s one to include in multiples. Her form from the Winter doesn’t read too bad and the two trials leading into her resumption have been quite good. Surprised if she wins, but she should be value for exotics.

6 Aqua D’Ivina (Bet Now: $11.00) would smash these if she ran to her best and I don’t think she’s far off producing it. She was very good splits wise fresh at Randwick behind Greyworm before racing at Rosehill three weeks ago where she was close up behind Asterius in a race where the form has been quite good. Up to a mile third up on a big track from a soft gate, she really appeals.

4 Turnberry (Bet Now: $6.00) is the interesting one. Too bad to be true first up behind Ranier before being freshened up and racing over 1500m at Rosehill where he attempted to lead all the way and he gave a really good kick, just failing to get the job done when a close up third to Asterius. If he can improve off that, he’ll take some beating against this bunch I think.

9 Cuban Royale (Bet Now: $7.50) is sneaky going well I reckon. Close up fourth to What Could Be at Randwick before going to Rosehill where on paper, it was just a run behind Sausedge, but in the straight, the horse had no luck at all and should have finished much closer in an ugly watch. Impressive winner here first up and with better luck in running, he can win for sure.

17 Asterius (Bet Now: $13.00) is flying for Chris Waller and confident he goes close here. Was very good first up behind Greyworm before racing over 1500m at Rosehill three weeks ago where he sat off a good speed before being presented clear air out wide and he surged hard late to just get the win. That form has turned out to be good with Strome winning along with Sir Pippin and Mr Reckless running well. Big track, 1600m, good speed…looks his perfect set up.

This has been the target for 6 Luvaluva (Bet Now: $5.00) for months and she looks to be ticking over beautifully. Comes through the Hot Danish from two weeks ago where she was no chance after a tardy beginning but loved the way she closed her race off behind Reelem In Ruby. It was a run screaming of a horse wanting further and a bigger track, which is the set up she gets here. Hard to beat.

15 Quackerjack (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Mark Newnham trained gelding who was good fresh at Randwick over 1400m behind Greyworm when third before going to the Goulburn Cup when doing work from a tricky gate to find the lead and despite being challenged in the straight, he gave a really good kick and was too good. Clearly more depth, but has upside, the right racing pattern and is hard to beat.

1 Akasaki (Bet Now: $34.00) looks really well in at the weights after the claim and finds a winnable race. This bloke is three weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at Rosehill where he raced a bit keen in the run and couldn’t quite finish it off behind Sandbar. Fast run 1000m looks his perfect set up and off a good speed, I think he’ll only run well against these.

6 Broken Arrows (Bet Now: $5.50) is flying at the moment for David Pfieffer. Chased best to win on the Kenso track two starts ago before going to Gosford where he sat off a fast speed, was presented with clear air at the top of the straight and finished off with real purpose to win impressively again. That’s the set up he gets here and for mine, I think he’ll like a bigger track even more.

15 Ori On Fire (Bet Now: $34.00) is a Cameron Crockett trained Benfica gelding that is first up and I think he’s flying. Whether this is the right race or not, have to wait and see, but off the trials, he’s flying. Loved the way he looked on speed in the first trial at Newcastle before trialling at Scone and he closed off strongly under a hold. Eligible for easier, but he’s going well I reckon.

Have to give 5 Echo Jet (Bet Now: $8.50) another look. Was keen on him running well fresh over 1100m at Rosehill a fortnight back but was wide for the trip, pretty much without cover, and finished down the track behind Stephan. He’s 2/2 second up and draws much better this time around, so I think at odds he will run a beauty because his trials leading in were sharp.

9 Trumbull (Bet Now: $3.40) is racing really well for Kim Waugh but the problem is he ain’t winning and he’s getting beat at a short quote, so patience is running thin, but a big track and 1200m might be his go. Ran over 1100m at Rosehill two weeks ago and loomed to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up third to Stephan. He was stunning last prep at 1200m and ran sharp time, so perhaps that’s what he’s looking for.

Big watch on 14 Sanctioned (Bet Now: $31.00), who I reckon is flying for David Pfieffer. He’s only won the one race, but his efforts throughout his time with James Cummings, for the most part, were solid. Had his first run for the new stable two weeks ago where he got back from the wide gate and finished off quite well late in the piece. 1200m on the bigger track and fitter, he’s a sharp improver.

He looks to be flying 7 Destiny’s Own (Bet Now: $4.60) and confident he goes close to winning. Had good specking at odds when resuming over 1300m at Rosehill three weeks back and his run was very good in defeat behind Outrageous. Loomed to win, but that horse had fitness and class and was too good. Destiny’s Own has a sharp second up record and up to 1400m, he’s very likeable.

You’d have to think this is D-Day for 6 Final Award (Bet Now: $3.60). Mark Newnham trains this guy, who is racing well but he’s not winning and he doesn’t help himself with poor beginnings and his racing pattern. Held up at a crucial stage behind Sausedge at Rosehill last time but worked home well when clear. Nash on from a good gate, one more chance.

11 Impavido (Bet Now: $81.00) is a Bjorn Baker trained six year old that resumes. This bloke has been really disappointing throughout his career after showing good early promise early on. He does tend to race best early on in the prep and his two trials leading in have been more than encouraging to the eye, so keen to see how he goes here first up at 1400m, telling me he’s forward enough.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 7 Lucicello

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 7 Destiny’s Own

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Akasaki

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 6, 9, 17

Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 15

Leg Three: 2, 6, 8, 9, 14

Leg Four: 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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