23/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby Trial day

A strong eight race card has been assembled for Flemington on Wednesday, where the feature races are the Oaks and Derby Trials, with the winners of both races getting ballot exemption for those respective races. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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3 General Beau (Bet Now: $2.30) looks a sharp type and I think he can make a winning debut here. Ellerton/Zahra trained colt that jumped out down the straight here last week and looked in very good order, winning the jumpout and seemed to have plenty in hand. Well found in early betting but he’s the pick from the jumpouts.

10 The Globe (Bet Now: $5.50) is a daughter of Frosted for James Cummings. She jumped out here last week and while she didn’t win or threaten to win, I thought she moved pretty well. Given a shaken up by Olly and looked to respond well enough to that pressure, which is a good sign for an early juvenile. Interesting to see what the market does.

If there is value here, it does lie with 1 Capital Legend (Bet Now: $18.00), a son of Capitalist for John Sadler. He jumped out at Sandown on the course proper and though he beat one runner home, when asked for an effort, the response was instant, which was a good sign. Has gate one and that is such an advantage in these early 2YO races.

8 Smokin’ Val (Bet Now: $8.50) deserves another chance. Won like a really nice filly on debut at Murray Bridge before going to the course proper at Morphettville, and on face value, she was plain behind The Multiplier, but that horse controlled things in front and Smokin’ Val didn’t seem to like being tight between runners. Going off her debut win, she deserves another chance.

2 Maha (Bet Now: $8.00) is a daughter of Pride Of Dubai for the McEvoy camp that resumes. This girl created a really good impression during the Autumn, winning her first two. Was sent out favourite in the Queen Adelaide during the Carnival in SA and looked a tired horse. Just one soft jumpout to get ready, so watch the market.

1000m is a specialist trip and I think it is the A1 trip for 1 Peggy Selene (Bet Now: $7.50), who lacks the class of some of these, but all three career wins have come at 1000m, she’s hard fit and in form. Not sure how she didn’t win three back at the Valley but has bounced back with a couple of wins over 1000m at Sandown and I think she’ll take some beating.

4 The Brumby (Bet Now: $3.00) looks a promising animal for the McEvoy camp and I think he can bounce back into the winners list. Was around a couple of months between runs when racing at the midweeks at Sandown and he closed off his race strongly, just missing out on picking up a good one in Aysar. Fitter, up to 1400m, hard to beat.

3 Embolism (Bet Now: $4.60) looks to have his share of talent. Danny O’Brien trained colt that had specking at odds when debuting at Bendigo and despite some traffic difficulties, he charged to the line late to win impressively. Looks a likely type and the O’Brien/Oliver combo is very ominous at the moment. Key threat.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for the Busuttin/Young colt 1 Albarado (Bet Now: $9.50), who resumed against the older horses over 1200m at Mornington and it just looked like he needed the run when third to One For Rocky. Think he’ll come right on from that and form from the opening prep reads well for a race like this.

Waddle the finger and hope for the best here. I’ll have something small each way on 2 Art Glass (Bet Now: $18.00). Few of these come through the 1300m maiden at Geelong which was dominated by those near the speed. Art Glass was back near last in the run and held up, so she really had no chance. Blinkers are on, and I think if she can take advantage of the gate, think she’s in the mix and will be good odds.

14 Yatton (Bet Now: $6.50) is racing as if she’ll appreciate 1800m. Michael Moroney trained filly that ran over the mile at Sandown last time out and while she didn’t have the speed in the legs to go with Succeed Indeed, she was sound to the line, suggesting 1800m will be ideal. Got upside, on her home track, hard to beat.

7 Pensato (Bet Now: $7.00) is another that comes through that 1300m Geelong maiden. She was wide no cover on speed, but the tempo wasn’t hot, so she wasn’t totally disadvantaged and battled away strongly to run third. Can see her getting a soft run from a good draw and on breeding, think 1800m will be okay for her.

11 Ocular (Bet Now: $2.60) looks very much above average and I’m confident he can measure up here. Resumed over 1100m at Bendigo and he smashed the clock relative to the day, charging clear late to bolt up by over four lengths and his late splits were sizzling. If he can bring that here, despite the depth engaged, he’ll take a power of beating.

7 Beehunter (Bet Now: $5.50) has the quality to put these away and do a number on them. Just want to see him do it first before diving in. He teased to win a number of races when last in work during the Winter but his racing pattern didn’t help his cause. Couple of jumpouts to get ready have been pretty good and draws to get clear air. Definite market watch.

15 Jawwaal (Bet Now: $18.00) is an interesting runner. Mitch Beer trained gelding who comes to Flemington in career best form. Won by over 11 lengths two back at Albury before bolting up again at Wagga, so he’s flying at the moment and has the right racing pattern to give himself every chance. Only query is the strong depth engaged.

Looks to be a bit of depth to this line up but hard to stand one out. So, I’m going to speck a couple each way. On top is 15 Tour Of Duty (Bet Now: $19.00) for the Michael Moroney team. Ran over 1400m at Geelong last time out when somewhat in restricted room, but kept finding the line and was solid enough in defeat. Like him up in trip and drawn out, should get clear air from the outset.

4 Choir (Bet Now: $4.80) will be the popular horse given he has the A1 form around him compared to others engaged here. Hasn’t raced for around six weeks since scoring a strong maiden win against the older horses at Moe on a testing track. Has had eyes on the Derby for some time and stable would like Alcyone to have company for the Derby.

The other one I’ll speck at a price is 3 Cetshwayo (Bet Now: $31.00). He had jumped out solid enough prior to debuting in that Geelong maiden mentioned above. He was tucked in behind the speed under Olly and I’m not sure he liked racing between runners in restricted room. Did start $5 there and you’ll likely get $40+, so think he’s value for sure.

I reckon this is nearly D-Day for 11 Affair To Remember (Bet Now: $7.00). Ran in the Let’s Elope against the Mares and was outclassed but far from disgraced I thought in a good race won by Pretty Brazen. Back to this level and third up, she’s hard fit so we should see something near her best, which is good enough to beat these.

1 Grand Promenade (Bet Now: $4.50) looks hard to beat for the Maher/Eustace camp. Resumed at the Valley when back near last in the run and held up when wanting to build momentum, but loved the way he found the line when clear. Staying at 1600m is the knock, but getting to a bigger track and fitter, he’ll take some beating.

4 Royal Performance (Bet Now: $13.00) should be suited at 1600m. Lindsey Smith trained gelding that resumed over 1100m at Caulfield and was warming to the task late in a pretty solid resumption behind Express Pass. 1100m straight to 1600m I do find interesting, so not sure I could back him to win, but a must for multiples.

8 Cordilla (Bet Now: $2.60) looks a good thing to me. Danny O’Brien trained mare that had a freshen up after her Rivette Final win prior to racing at the Valley a few weeks ago and I think it’s safe to say that with clear air, she wins the race, instead of being a hard held sixth. Won a high rating maiden at Pakenham second up last prep and off the resumption, she’s hard to beat.

11 Scottish Dancer (Bet Now: $5.50) is a big watch here. Price/Kent trained four year old that resumes. He last raced during the Autumn, dead heating in first place first up at Sandown before racing at this track/distance and was more than sound in defeat behind Spend. Two jumpouts to get ready have been good and looks the only threat.

The Blinkers going on could spark improvement from 13 Nerone (Bet Now: $14.00). He was well fancied when resuming at Warwick Farm but gee I thought he was pretty plain behind Bartley, who has since run well at Stakes level, so the form around him does read well and if he brings anything near his best, he’s in the game.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 8 Cordilla

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 11 Ocular

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 15 Tour Of Duty

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 7, 11, 15

Leg Two: 3, 4, 10, 11, 15

Leg Three: 1, 4, 8, 11

Leg Four: 8, 11

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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