24/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Cox Plate day

One of the best races on the Australian racing calendar is the Cox Plate and the 2020 edition, along with being the 100th running, is the highlight at Moonee Valley this Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Cox Plate 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Cox Plate

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2 Ancestry (Bet Now: $1.30 TOP ODDS) is a real speed demon for Phillip Stokes and I think he can make it 3/3 this time in. Sustained speed saw him bolt up fresh at Caulfield before going to the Apache Cat at Cranbourne where he led, copped pressure, but drew clear on the turn and was strong to the line in winning. He’s flying and should prove hard to beat here.

1 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) needs a heavy track, but does he really against these? Easily the weakest race he has contested in some time, and he wasn’t beaten far in what I think will be a good form race last Saturday, the Caulfield Sprint, won by Lyre. Has class and that will carry him a long way against this lot.

3 Holbein (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is a quality animal for Steve Richards that resumes. He resumed in this very race last year and was unlucky not to finish closer behind Fine Dane. Been given a good break after a mixed Winter prep but has jumped out really well to get ready for his return and this is, overall, a thin race.

This is a proper lottery here. Waddle your finger and pick one because there have been no real standouts at the jumpouts, but I was impressed with the jumpout win of 15 Tempest Charm (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS), albeit over 600m. Led throughout, looked to travel sweetly and had plenty in hand when winning. Has early toe from what was seen there and she’ll do me as a tip.

9 The Art Of Flying (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) is a Flying Artie colt on debut for the Maher/Eustace camp. This bloke jumped out at Caulfield where he was wide no cover on speed but was given a flick of the reins and he showed change up speed to go on and win the jumpout. Looks to have ability and big tick for him is that he has an inside gate.

12 Gossitino (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a Robbie Griffiths trained first starter that comes here off the back of one jumpout, which came at Cranbourne on Monday. Sat on speed throughout before being clicked up late and she looked to move well, going on to win in solid enough time. Stable finds Damian Lane to steer and draws well.

7 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained filly that was outclassed in the Moir behind Pippie before going to the Thoroughbred Club at Caulfield when near the speed and fighting on strongly when third to impressive winner Swats That. Lands near the front here and should take some running down.

5 Portland Sky (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is a Matt Laurie trained three year old that ran down the Flemington straight last time out when ridden cold, sitting back near last in the pack, getting cover from the breeze, and he worked home pretty well I thought when fourth to September Run. Lightly raced with upside to come, including him.

1 Valaquenta (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1200m for James Cummings. Three weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington over 1100m where he was off the speed and tried hard, but clearly didn’t have the change up speed to go with September Run. Now hard fit, up to 1200m, it’s a very winnable race for him.

1 Thermosphere (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) for me. James Cummings trained filly that was super in winning the Edward Manifold before going to the Thousand Guineas a week later where she was outclassed but far from disgraced in defeat behind Odeum. Much better suited here and I think she’ll take some beating, provided she holds her form.

2 Ecumenical (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) was enormous in the Thousand Guineas. Did a power of work out wide in the run throughout yet battled away really bravely to run fourth to Odeum, beaten just under three lengths. Clear top pick had she drawn inside, but drawing out again, just fear she may have to do too much work again.

6 Yes Baby Yes (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up for the Corstens camp after racing last Saturday over 1400m at Caulfield. Sat near the speed throughout and kicked strongly when asked for the effort by Williams, but was bloused late by Incredulous Dream. Back up to the mile, maps well, hard fit and in form.

The transfer of stable and finally being placed to win a race, I’m in the corner of the class of the field, 1 Danzdanzdance (Bet Now: $21.00). Formerly with Chris Waller, this mare now finds herself with Dean Binaisse after simply not measuring up in Sydney, but in saying that, she was so poorly placed. Back to Mares grade, at the mile, on a likely wet track, I’ll take a chance with her.

3 Sovereign Award (Bet Now: $3.80) is the hard fit/in form mare. Lovely win from here two back before racing in the Ladies Day Vase last Wednesday Caulfield when landing on speed and she was there to be run down, but was simply too tough and too good. Maps to get an ideal run once again and has to be rated highly.

5 Bonvicini (Bet Now: $5.50) should be suited up to the mile for the Maher/Eustace team. She comes through the Blazer from three weeks ago where she tried hard, but the slow tempo didn’t play into her hands, so want to be forgiving of that effort. First up run was a beauty and off that, she’s certainly in the mix here.

1 Khoekhoe (Bet Now: $3.30) is heading in the right direction. He was a strong winner of the Super Impose from three weeks ago. He was there to be run down late, but showed ticker in the final few strides to cling on and win. Off that, 2040m here should be fine for him and with Young Wether out and the track favouring on speed he is the horse to beat.

3 Cherry Tortoni (Bet Now: $2.90) the late money has come for this Patrick Payne stayer and he should be right in the finished based off his run at The Valley two starts ago. Things didn’t quite work out for him in Sydney but this looks a lot easier the only query will be his racing pattern but i imagine they will sit closer.

2 Lunar Fox (Bet Now: $7.00) looks like he will appreciate the 2040m. Paul Preusker trained three year old that comes through the Caulfield Guineas where he was back in the run and although never really a winning threat, liked the way he finished his race off when fifth to Ole Kirk. He’s racing like a Derby horse and I think is a leading chance here.

Interesting placement here by Chris Waller with 2 Kings Will Dream (Bet Now: $4.20), who I dare is being aimed at the Mackinnon. He comes through the Turnbull and despite finishing 10/15, he was only beaten 2.5L by Verry Elleegant, who of course won the Caulfield Cup, so that form is A1 for this and he has class on his side.

Market will be the guide with 1 Homesman (Bet Now: $3.60). If he’s anywhere near right, he likely wins, but it’s a guessing game with him given he hasn’t had a jumpout. His stats fresh, at the mile, at the Valley…just all reads so well for this. The market will tell you if he’s ready or not. If he stays around $3.5-$4, he is good to go, but if he drifts to $5-$6+, then I’d be concerned.

8 Chief Ironside (Bet Now: $6.00) is attempting to defend his crown from last year. He was very good first up in the Cameron at Newcastle behind Rock before being freshened up and racing in the Toorak where he battled away pretty well in defeat when midfield to Mr Quickie. Has more upside than most and is proven at the track. Winning chance for sure.

Fascinating runner here is 10 Selino (Bet Now: $11.00). Given he’s 53rd in order of entry, he would need to win this and win impressively to get a penalty for the Melbourne Cup to try and squeeze in. The fact they are running here and not racing in something easier tells me they want to get him to the Cup, and J Mac is booked. Good enough for me to be in his corner.

4 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $4.00) is running out of chances but this does look a winnable race. He tried to qualify for the Melbourne Cup via a win in the Bart Cummings but just did too much work in the run and couldn’t sustain it in the run to the line when a close up fifth to Persan. His best is good enough…just haven’t seen it for a while.

1 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $18.00) is flying for Archie Alexander. He comes here off the back of a strong effort in the Herbert Power two weeks ago, working home strongly from the back when a close up fourth to Chapada. They missed out on a Group l chance in the Metropolitan, but he gets a great chance to win a feature here.

11 Russian Camelot (Bet Now: $3.80 PROMO ODDS) is the hype/boom horse that had his colours lowered as a short priced elect in the Caulfield Stakes two weeks ago. The race was run at pretty much barrier trial speed and he pulled quite hard in the run, which meant those behind, namely Arcadia Queen, who relaxed and has a brilliant turn of foot, proved to good for him. He needs a genuine tempo and give in the track, both things he should get here.

12 Armory (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. He’s the pick of the internationals IMO and he has the A1 form around him, with names such as Magical, Ghaiyyath and co in the form guide when it comes to him, which is top shelf European form. If this track was firm, I could almost declare him, but on soft ground, still confident he’ll run a mighty race.

No surprise to see good support come in for 13 Probabeel (Bet Now: $9.00). She’s an absolute beauty for Jamie Richards. Won with real arrogance in the Bill Ritchie before proving too good for her rivals in a fast run Epsom. 2040m should be fine for her here, she maps to get a perfect run off the speed and the wet ground is fine, although better suited on firmer footing.

8 La Mexicana (Bet Now: $2.60) looks an absolute swimmer so if the forecast for heavy rain is right, she’s the one to beat. Gave them a spanking at Cranbourne on Pinker Pinker Night, sitting on speed and really, Jamie Kah didn’t have to do a great deal on the filly. She was dominant and with conditions to suit, hopefully, she’ll take some beating from near the front.

3 Maha (Bet Now: $4.00) looks one of the hardest to beat. Team McEvoy trained filly that resumed at Flemington three weeks back. She was leading into the breeze and tried quite hard. Just didn’t have the change up speed that September Run produced, but battled away gamely to run third to her. Fitter, she can land near the front and prove tough to get past.

7 Raison D’Etre (Bet Now: $15.00) would love a drop of rain to hit this track. James Cummings trained filly that comes through the Scarborough at the Valley on Moir Night and was sound late, but overall, she had her chance behind Swats That, who bolted up next start to frank the form. Fitter, hard to beat, especially if the track has give.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 8 La Mexicana

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Bella Nipotina

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 1 Danzdanzdance

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4, 10, 12

Leg Three: 9, 11, 12, 13, 14

Leg Four: 3, 7, 8

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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