24/8/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Winx Stakes day

Group l racing returns for the 2018/19 season this Saturday where the Winx Stakes (1400m) highlights a fab nine race card at Randwick. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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I found this Highway one of the more impossible to sort out. It’s a case of throw at the stumps and landed with 2 Rioli (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS). He is three weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at the Gold Coast when well back in the run and finding the line strongly behind Mighty Mittere. Last prep he ran a narrow second to Ori On Fire in a Highway, which reads very well. He gets speed on in front, a dry track, will be strong late, claim for Clenton…he’ll do me.

7 Gem Dealer (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) certainly has ability and can take this out. She was being tried as an Oaks type of filly in the Autumn but just didn’t measure up at all but if you go back to before she was thrown in the deep end, her runs at benchmark level in town were very good, good enough form for this. Trial win was solid without being great, but booking of Nash is a good lead she’s ready to go.

11 Philadora (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is the interesting one. Rod Northam trains this mare, who has been frustrating to follow at times but has showed ability at various stages of her career. Did somewhat put it together last time in and form around her doesn’t read too bad. Draws to sit off a good speed and finish hard late. Comes here with no public trial, so market will be the guide.

7 Adana…(Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) he’s got more excuses than a cheating spouse, but he was entitled to use them first up at Rosehill. I think he should have gone close to winning with clear air but it just didn’t present at any stage in the straight and it was an ugly watch if you were on. I think you have to treat him as first up again because what he did last start was a barrier trial.

The best version of 3 Cyber Intervention (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) beats these but just where he is at? Like most, I was all over him when he raced over 1800m here three weeks ago but he pulled his head off out the back and was a beaten horse at the top of the straight. Trialled again since and again caught the eye. Perhaps the more genuine tempo of a mile race will be to his liking.

8 The Promise (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) looks just about ready. Thought she was solid enough first up at Kembla before racing at Rosehill a fortnight back where she didn’t have much room in the straight but was still good in defeat behind The Avenger. She’s gradually getting to peak fitness and now on her home track, I can see her running a positive race at decent odds.

I think 1300m and the bigger track will suit 5 Superium (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). I’m a leading member of his fan club and think he can run well in the Golden Rose. He resumed in the Rosebud and just didn’t get the clear air he wanted but chased hard and was only beaten a half length by Dawn Passage. He’ll eat up the extra trip and with clear air, he’ll be quite effective I think.

3 True Detective (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a talented colt who is just doing a few things wrong at the moment. Probably should have won first up at Rosehill but was left in front and a sitting shot late. He then raced here three weeks ago when tardy away and taking a while to wind up, but surged late and just missed out on picking up Misteed. Hard fit, up to 1300m, has race fitness on his side…gets his chance at this level.

9 Famous (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in excellent order. Had just one 900m trial leading into a 1200m resumption at Newcastle where he was backed with real confidence late and the bets were landed as he dashed away late for a dominant win. Harder here, but did run well in a couple of good races during the Autumn so stable has always had an opinion of him.

They take their turns in these staying races. I reckon a really good each way gamble here is 11 Curata Princess (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS). The Price stable trains this mare, who was in need of the run first up behind Notation before racing over 1800m here three weeks back in an on pace race and made up decent ground behind Toryjoy. Gets down to 50.5kg after the claim and on top of the ground, I think she’ll run a beauty.

Can 5 Our Candidate (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) repeat the dose from four weeks ago? If he does, he just about wins, because it was an outstanding performance to win over this trip at Rosehill, aided by a peach from Avdulla who saved a stack of ground nearer the inside and was much too good. Runner up Illwendo bolted up last Saturday to tick that form off and this horse did run well here the start prior.

4 Desert Path (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is the interesting one. He was well specked in the Hogmanay race from two weeks ago at Rosehill but was awful when running last, with a very weak finale being the concern with him. Nothing said in the Stewards Report so do we scrap that run, because his resumption at Caulfield was quite good. Have to give him another look.

She’s not quite an any price good thing is 3 Libertini (Bet Now: $1.70) but she’s clearly the horse to beat. Anthony Cummings trains this filly and he’s on the record as saying this girl could well develop into the best three year old in Australia. If you’re going off the trials and work between races last Saturday, it’s hard to argue with his assessment. But that’s trial form. Has to do it on race day. Confident she can and will.

1 Tenley (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to have come back really well. Very talented filly for James Cummings who was one of the leading juveniles last season, but when it came to the crunch time, wet tracks just plagued her and she didn’t run well in the big races. On paper, the two trials have been just fair, but liked the way she attacked the line late in the latest trial behind Sunlight. She has class and runs on the board.

There’s no messing about with 8 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $19.00) it appears. Tony McEvoy trains this talented filly, who got the kill out of the way first up at Murray Bridge, and the form out of that has been decent enough. Comes to Sydney and looked sharp in a recent Randwick trial win, plus gets Blinkers first time and Currie comes for the ride. She’s ready to go and looks overs.

Have always had time for 13 Baller (Bet Now: $8.00) and I think he can run well here. He ran an enormous race in the Galaxy behind Nature Strip and looked a tired horse next time out in the Arrowfield behind Classique Legend and was tipped out soon after. Two trials leading in have been outstanding and he does seem a far more effective galloper on top of the ground.

6 Cascadian (Bet Now: $5.50) has to be included. Former French galloper that built up a pretty good record in six career outings, including a narrow second at Group l level two back. His Warwick Farm was outstanding, trucking behind the speed and was absolutely bolting. The worry I have is the wide gate. Likely eases back to near last…he could be the flashing light run…or he could announce himself as a new star of Australian racing with a barnstorming win.

The old boy 2 Dothraki (Bet Now: $21.00) returns for Team Snowden. He’s been a grand campaigner for the stable for a number of years now and returns for another prep. His best days are probably behind him but I’ve been encouraged by the way he’s gone about it at his past two trials in readiness for his return to the races. Couldn’t back him to win, but he’ll be thereabouts.

Back Me: 10 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $4.00) could easily blow this field away and nearly head to the top of the Cox Plate market. IMO, she is, potentially, the best horse in Australia. But needs to get runs on the board against the big boys and girls so this will be a good test. Her two trials have been good. Just a tad concerned about the hiccup she had last week, which forced her to miss an exhibition gallop last Saturday. If she’s right and forward enough, she’ll win and can easily back her along with Unforgotten.

I think we can see a first up win here with 8 Unforgotten (Bet Now: $11.00). This mare had a pretty frustrating Autumn prep, with wet tracks bringing her undone in her key races, but when she found dry ground, she was very good, notably last start in the Coolmore Legacy behind Kenedna. Draws a gate there and she wins. Resumes off the back of two trials and I loved the way she went about it in her second trial behind Avilius. She’s ready to go. Hopefully we get a firm deck.

Not sure WFA is her go but had to like the resumption of 7 Invincible Gem (Bet Now: $14.00) in the Missile from two weeks ago. She chased hard throughout and got pretty close to beating Alizee, but I think Alizee was holding her pretty comfortably despite a couple of nervous moments. Has the run under the belt and should get run of the race stuff from the gate.

Hoping sustained speed can come to the fore in the shape of 13 Agent Pippa (Bet Now: $13.00). This former WA mare was a dynamic winner first up over 1100m at Rosehill before going to 800m on Coffs Cup Day and lumping the big weight and running at a hectic speed just brought her undone. Like her back up to 1100m with serious weight relief, she’s hard fit and will give a bold sight.

Good test here for 4 Mizzy (Bet Now: $4.40) but I reckon Anthony Cummings has this mare going well. She comes through the Alizee trial from a few weeks back at Randwick when leading and while well held by the star mare, she went about her business on speed in good order and wasn’t asked for much, and her subsequent trial was pleasing too. I think races like the Tibbie/Golden Pendant would be right up her alley, so keen to see how she goes.

Couldn’t back her to win with stolen money but concede that 12 Into The Abyss (Bet Now: $13.00) is talented and can run well once again. She was very frustrating in the Autumn, notably in the James Carr where she should have won and beaten Laburnum but got held up at a vital stage. Liked the way she hit the line in her trial behind Sunlight and off a good speed, she’ll be strong.

Back Me: I think 11 Roheryn (Bet Now: $2.15) is the safe option here in the get out. This talented four year old was a hard odds on pop when resuming over 1200m here three weeks ago and after sitting just off the speed, McEvoy peeled him out into clear air and his class came to the fore for an impressive first up win. 1400m looks ideal and he should be a better horse on top of the ground.

5 Milk Man (Bet Now: $10.00) is a French import who was good at his Australian debut at Randwick three weeks ago behind Bangkok. Just not sure the race shape suited him but he stuck to the task well in defeat, running fourth, beaten a couple of lengths. You’d like to think he’ll take really good improvement from that first up run and up to 1400m here, he’s an obvious threat.

2 Fortensky (Bet Now: $26.00) has been a real model of consistency this time in but he can’t quite crack it for a win. He sat on speed at Rosehill two weeks ago and gave a decent enough kick under Bowman but Sweet Deal had the drop on him and once she got clear air, her turn of foot came to the fore and she was too good. He’s knocking on the door to win and gets another chance.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Libertini

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 11 Roheryn

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 2 Rioli

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 6, 7, 12, 13

Leg Two: 1, 7, 8, 10

Leg Three: 2, 8, 12, 13

Leg Four: 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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