25/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, VRC St Leger day

Anzac Day racing in Melbourne heads to Flemington where eight races have been set down. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

I think 4 Observational (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) is worth a throw at the stumps here in the first. Thought his run in the Easter Cup last Saturday was very good behind Plein Ciel. He copped the backwash of Magnapal breaking down and was forced wide on the turn. Never really in the hunt but his late splits were good and loved the way he charged through the line. Wanted to lay in too so a strong left hand whip rider in Mick Dee is a big tick and I think he can get the job done, hopefully at a price.

Giving enormous respect though to the David Briedoake trained 1 Self Sense (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS). At the time of writing this, not sure where he heads after this, whether it be the flat or does he back in the Galleywood at the Bool. Either way, he’s already done an outstanding job this prep, winning the Yarra Valley Cup two back before producing the run of the race in the Chairmans at Randwick, a race which produced the Sydney Cup winner, so that form reads so well.

5 Valac (Bet Now:$7.00 TOP ODDS) is going really well at the moment for the Hayes/Dabernig team but he can’t quite crack it for a win. Thought Pannell gave the gelding every chance I thought last time out on the Parks track and he looked home but in the end was bloused on the peg by Light The Waves, a McEvoy stayer that is low flying at the moment. Has run well at Flemington, gets weight relief and tries hard.

Like 2 Bandipur (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS). James Cummings trains this son of Commands, who hasn’t raced for just under three weeks since getting the job done impressively at Caulfield when getting the late split and dashing late to win. Back to 1000m I don’t think will be an excuse for him, he likes the Flemington straight and overall, this isn’t the strongest race going around.

3 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a talented yet frustrating animal for Patrick Payne resuming. He is a really good sprinter at this level who is honest, runs well…just struggles to win given his racing pattern of being cuddled out the back and being saved for the last furlong. Does have a handy record down the Flemington straight and has had the benefit of a Cranbourne trial and Kyneton jumpout.

7 Written Choice, (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a speedy customer for Logan McGill that resumes. This bloke clocked the fastest time for the 955m Series at the Valley this season, so we know he’s got sustained speed. Was tested at Stakes level after those 955m wins and didn’t measure up, but probably was a tired horse then. Been given a good break, trialled up well, has the speed to lead or do his own thing out wide. Could be a threat.

1 Super Seth (Bet Now: $1.60 TOP ODDS) is the boom colt for Anthony Freedman who is 2/2 to start his career. Made a mess of them on debut at Ballarat before going to the Caulfield 1200m where he was back near last in a race suited for those from the back due to the strong tempo, and savaged the line late to win. Gives the impression 1400m will be up his alley… There is a question mark on the strength of his form, but he looks the real deal and has to go on top.

I’m really keen to see how 5 Chaillot (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) goes. Archie Alexander trains this filly, who was unwanted in betting when debuting at Ballarat but despite having no friends in the market, she produced one of the wins of the day, putting them away really impressively from off the pace, and her time measured up really well relative to the day. Always a good sign for a two year old, especially at start one. Confident she’ll run well.

3 Deserved (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a Matt Cumani trained filly who had trialled up quite well prior to debuting at the midweeks at Sandown when given a lovely steer off the pace from Jamie Kah before getting the late split nearer the inside and finishing best in a driving go. The Dundeels have had a fab season to date and the progeny will get better over further, including this girl you’d expect.

On a dry track, giving 4 Zalatte (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) one more chance. Surround run was excellent before going to the Phar Lap where she was in a foul mood, didn’t handle the bog and was 2/5 lame. Then went to the Adrian Knox where the money was on late but got stuck wide no cover and couldn’t pick her feet up on the shifty track behind Aliferous, who ran well in the Oaks. If she’s right, she should be too good.

Huge watch on the Maher/Eustace trained 3 Not A Single Cent (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS), who returns as a gelding. Has always showed good talent since day one but for the most part hasn’t put it together and been a disappointment. Been gelded and has looked very good at the jumpouts, with the signs being the ultimate operation could well be the making of him. Keen to see what he does.

7 Zouy’s Comet (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is one to watch for sure. Not sure what Richard Laming has in mind for this three year old but he does look quite progressive. Ended his Spring prep with a gutsy win to break the maiden status before being tipped out. Spelled, trialled well, resumed at Cranbourne against the older horses and was one of the more impressive winners of the meeting. Looks to be heading in the right direction and 1700m no drama.

Bet of the day here for mine in the shape of the Ellerton/Zahra trained 3 Zoutori (Bet Now: $2.80). This filly resumed under the lights at Pakenham where she had to overcome bias and an unsuitable trip but she won as if it was a barrier trial, rounding them up from off the pace and winning with ease in a race where the form has already been franked by Call It A Day. Should take good improvement and clearly the one to beat.

8 Big Night Out (Bet Now: $3.50) has been the subject of good early support and I’m respecting that here. Loved the way he attacked the line to win at the Sandown midweeks last time in a race which has already produced a couple of winners, so the form reads well and the stable is just going great guns at the moment. 1400m on the big track is idea and looks the key, perhaps only threat, to Zoutori.

6 Mr Exclusive (Bet Now: $13.00) looks to have come back okay for the Matty Brown stable. Had produced some really good efforts at a high class level in the Spring without winning. Tipped out and resumed in a Werribee where he looked in a bit of trouble on the turn but his class came to the fore late and he proved too good. Harder here, but did measure up to an extent in some good races during the Spring.

2800m might be too short for 7 Convict Sam (Bet Now: $10.00) but he does look the best stayer in the race and goes on top. Really one paced to win the maiden at Donald two back over 2000m before stepping up to 2400m at Caulfield where it was on display even more but sound in defeat behind Secret Blaze. 2800m on the big track looks perfect and if it turns into survival of the fittest, he’ll win that battle.

2 Transact (Bet Now: $5.00) will be out of trouble on speed giving his all for the WaterBott team, which is what he did last time out in the Secret Blaze race mentioned above. Meech was forced to press the button a fair way out, earlier than I’m sure she would have liked, but but he battled away well in defeat behind Secret Blaze. Lands in front I suspect and will be trying hard.

4 Budd Fox (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Henry Dwyer trained three year old who just missed out on the win two back at Bendigo when beaten a lip by Secret Blaze before stepping back to the Pakenham mile where it looked as if it was more of a barrier trial for him in readiness for this. Off the Bendigo run, 2800m should be fine and he does have zip in the legs compared to a few here who are one batters.

3 Mantastic (Bet Now: $2.90) on top for me. Chris Waller has done a pretty good job with this bloke in three runs for the stable. Surged hard to win two back on Adelaide Cup Day in the CS Hayes Cup before going to the Golden Mile at Bendigo when back and finishing off strongly to run second to stablemate Haripour in a race which has already produced a couple of winners. The Flemington 1700m looks an ideal step up.

1 Call Me Handsome (Bet Now: $4.80) looks to have come back well from a little freshen up. Had a few weeks off after the Yarra Valley Cup before going to the mile at Caulfield when on speed and fighting on well in defeat behind Mahamedeis in what I think will be a good form race. He’ll take improvement from that I’m sure, lands near the front and will take some running down.

8 Al Passem (Bet Now: $16.00) has done sweet FA this prep for Ken Keys but perhaps a soft run on speed could spark improvement. Hasn’t raced for a few weeks since racing over 1400m at Bendigo when on speed and tiring late behind Antah. Likely leads or gets the sit behind Call Me Handsome and at his best, he’s certainly capable of beating these. Just depends where he’s at.

This is D-Day for 8 Temple Of Bel (Bet Now: $2.60). Have to put a line through her two runs to start the prep given the tempo was against her. Went to the 1400m at Caulfield last time where she got back off a somewhat moderate tempo again and surged hard but just missed. Think up to the mile on the bigger track looks perfect…looks her race, but last chance for me.

11 Flop (Bet Now: $10.00) is an interesting runner. This mare is going quite well at the moment for the Gordon Richards stable, finishing top three at her past four, the latest on the Parks track at Morphettville when second to Handsome Return, who went within a lip of winning last Saturday at Caulfield, so that form reads well and from gate one, she should get a sweet run in transit.

12 Pria Eclipse (Bet Now: $15.00) is an absolute beauty for the Dan O’Sullivan who is rarely far away from the action given she puts herself on speed and gives her all. Ran over the Caulfield mile just under three weeks ago against the mares when attempting to lead all the way and she gave a good kick but just found them a bit sharp. Not sure I can back her to win, but a must for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Zoutori

NEXT BEST: Race Race Four Number 4 Zalatte

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 4 Observational

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 8

Leg Four: 2, 8, 9, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful