25/7/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Bletchingly Stakes day

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday where it is Bletchingly Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

Bletchingly Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Bletchingly Stakes

4 Tavidance (Bet Now: $2.05 TOP ODDS) looks one of the better bets on the program. Think there’s plenty more to come with this guy and he can keep on winning. Was an emergency when racing here two weeks ago and got a run. Jamie Kah put him into a lovely spot just off the speed and it was race over from the home turn. Third up at the mile, with upside to come, clearly the horse to beat.

3 No Say In It (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is four weeks between runs for Lindsey Smith since racing at this track/distance where he got back in the run. Rodd rode to the pattern of the inside and wanted luck, but didn’t get it, and the last 100m or so he went untested to the line. Convinced he’s going well and with better luck can go close.

10 Skyman (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Former UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller. Had a prep in the Autumn without racing, so I think he’s been well schooled for his Aussie debut off the back of two jumpouts at Flemington. Had a Timeform rating of around 80, so with a rating off 66 here, he’s well in.

Back to 1400m I do like for the Danny O’Brien trained 4 Burleigh Boy (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS). Didn’t have the best of luck when resuming over 1400m at Flemington behind Cherry Tortoni before contesting the Taj Rossi Final when struggling in the conditions and over the trip behind the Patty Payne juvenile. Back in trip and dropping in depth, he can bounce back.

Up to 1400m should suit 2 Flinders River (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS). Maher/Eustace trained juvenile that resumed over 1300m at Sandown and paraded like he would need the run. Got back and didn’t really have change up speed but picked up and was sound late behind the above average juvenile Aysar. He’ll improve off that and extra 100m suits.

Giving respect to the James Cummings trained juvenile 3 Fatigues (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS). Comes here off the back of a maiden win at Cranbourne where the market support said he was ready to win and aided by a positive ride from John Allen, he was too good. He’s got more to come and can take this out for sure, a winnable race.

6 Propelle (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) has returned in good order for the Ellerton/Zahra camp and third up from a break, she should be close to peak fitness. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and was held up at a crucial stage. Not sure she wins, but should have fought the finish out when a close up fourth to Our Campana. Nearing a win and gets her chance.

1 Our Campana (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) is a quality mare who had her first run for Peter Moody when resuming here a fortnight back. Market didn’t want a bar of her given she was first up on a wet track, but class got her home in a deceptive finish, just holding off Miss Iano. Got room for improvement and should take some beating here.

3 She’s A Thief (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) has done a really good job this time in for the Michael Moroney team. Impressive winner over 1200m here two back before going to the 1100m from two weeks back when on speed and fighting on strongly when third to Our Campana. Lands near the front again and should run another positive race.

6 Sign Seal Deliver (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a stayer, so I hope this is a proper 2400m contest and not a 600m dash, which is what unfolded in the Mahogany Final and I thought it was a really poor ride from Olly given he knew he was on a stayer but turned it into a sprint, which suited the fav and eventual winner Persan. Expecting a more positive ride here.

2 Lord Bouzeron (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a Francis Finnegan trained three year old that made his Australian debut over 2000m here two weeks ago. Punters didn’t miss him because he opened near $30 and was backed into $14. He lapped up the wet track and absolutely bolted in under Will Price. Up to 2400m should be fine and you’d like to think he has improvement to come.

Not sure he wins, but can make a little case for 10 Resolute Lad (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) to run a race and potentially turn the tables on Lord Bouzeron from their clash two weeks back mentioned above. Resolute Lad was back near last and wide, making up ground late. Like that Olly takes over and stable, after a really lean run, is having a purple patch.

1 Rich Hips (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to have a bit of quality about her. Busuttin/Young trained filly that had good specking at a price when resuming at Sandown and after sitting back off the speed, she peeled wider and let down with a powerful finale to win impressively. Got more to come you would assume and stable finds Olly to steer.

7 Paris (Bet Now: $12.00) is racing well for Peter Moody. This filly ran over 1400m here a fortnight back despite being a query at the trip but thought she was a definite pass mark in defeat when third to Mystery Shot. Off that run, back to this trip here should be fine and if she can sit a pair or two closer in the run, she’ll be dangerous.

I’m interested in 12 Kimberley Spirit (Bet Now: $20.00). Tony Noonan trained filly that resumed in an 1100m maiden at Moe and she bolted up, winning by a space and running solid enough time relative to the meeting. Tick over jumpout looked great to the eye and the form around her from the first prep doesn’t read too bad for this.

Half positive steer and 5 Morrissy (Bet Now: $3.40) should go close to winning. Half positive steer and he should have won here two weeks ago, but the tactics were horrible when dragging back to near last and he was no hope. He’s flying this horse and he’s the type that needs to get near the speed, with clear air, so he can build the revs because he isn’t a sit/sprint type.

The smart boys and girls found 3 Travimyfriend (Bet Now: $4.80) at odds when he raced here a fortnight back and the bets were landed. Yendall was back on, he won the race last year, put into a lovely spot just off the speed before peeling wider into clear air and wore them down to win well. If he can hold that form, leading chance here.

11 Ruban Bleu (Bet Now: $7.50) saves his best for Caulfield so I think he’s well placed here. I’d be very forgiving of his run last time out at Sandown. Harry Grace pulled their pants down in front aboard Sir Kalahad and he spanked them. Ruban Bleu was back near last and tried to make a run but was no chance. Better suited here and can take this out.

4 Viridine (Bet Now: $2.50) is a James Cummings trained gelding that’s going well. Lovely ride from Bowman saw him win two back at Randwick before going to the Monash where he chased strongly but couldn’t get past the best wet tracker in Australia, Jungle Edge. Back up to 1200m I do like for him and firmer footing suits.

If there’s any hint of a pattern suiting those on speed, 2 Streets Of Avalon (Bet Now: $7.50) comes right into play. His Autumn was of course highlighted by the Futurity and yes, the track pattern suited him that day, but More Joyous is the only horse to have run quicker time than his win in the last 20 runnings. Been given a good break, and while his main aims will be the Lawrence/Memsie, he has class on his side.

6 I Am Someone (Bet Now: $10.00) has had a pretty good prep for Paul Preusker. Bit disappointing two back in the Victorian Sprint Final before backing up a week later in the Monash and ran a much improved race when third to Jungle Edge, sticking to the task quite well. Back on firmer footing I do like…just a little query at a strong 1200m at this level.

Think 3 Sasko (Bet Now: $4.50) can lead throughout in what is very much an ordinary staying race. He’s been up a fair while for Matt Cumani but continues to race well. Latest run came three weeks ago at Flemington when attempting to lead throughout and fought on well when third to Lord Belvedere. Leads this field up and will take some catching.

2 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $3.50) has some strong flat form leading into this, but his past couple have been a tad suspect. Last run came over 2000m here when down the track behind Mirimar. Was nominated for a Maiden Hurdle on Sunday at Pakenham but instead runs here and has had two jumps trials to tune up. Hard to beat at his best.

Think firmer footing will suit 7 Fanciful Toff (Bet Now: $6.50). He has raced on seriously wet ground at his past few and has run okay but hasn’t really threatened to win, something he was doing when last in work. Think dry ground will help his cause and like the booking of Jye McNeil. His best is good enough. Rather see him do it than gamble on him doing it.

See no reason to jump off 1 Mystery Shot (Bet Now: $1.80) for Lindsey Smith. Has won 4/4 and has steadily got better with each outing, the latest seeing him bolt up over this track/distance two weeks back. Connections have knocked back big offers form Hong Kong for this guy and while he isn’t smashing the clock, he’s looking very much a Stakes class animal.

3 Wicklow Town (Bet Now: $6.50) looks to have a really good engine under the hood for Julie Scott. Put together three impressive wins on the bounce before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago and despite doing a bit wrong, closed off with purpose when second to the above average Mystery Shot. If he can race with better manners and sit that bit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.

7 Zero Doubt (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Price/Kent runner that resumes. Talented three year old that hasn’t raced since the Autumn when contesting the Autumn Stakes behind Microphone. Recent jumpout was more than encouraging and if you think that Winter form of Mystery Shot is suspect, then this guy is the one with the strong form lines.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Mystery Shot

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Tavidance

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 6 Sign Seal Deliver

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 11

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 8

Leg Four: 1

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful