26/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Canterbury

Eight races will be run and won under the lights at Canterbury this Friday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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5 Matlock (Bet Now: $8.50) on top for me in a tricky race to kick off the meeting. Debuted over 1400m here when near the speed and though a bit one paced he battled on really well when third. He should find the front here and we know on speed/rail at these meetings is gold.

10 Lekvarte (Bet Now: $3.60) should eat up the 1550m. This girl has had two runs back from a break, the latest coming last Wednesday at Rosehill when back in the run and worked home strongly when fourth to Banana Queen. That was 1400m so the extra 150m should be ideal.

2 Caboteur (Bet Now: $10.00) is a David Payne trained three year old that resumes. This guy had a three run prep to start his career in the Winter, with his second run being the best when second. Liked the Rosehill trial on wet ground to get ready for his return and after the claim, he’s in with a shout.

4 Merlinite (Bet Now: $5.50) is getting towards last chance territory but this mare is racing well I feel. Heavily backed at Hawkesbury last start and though held up for a few strides, she had her chance when third. I am hoping for a more aggressive steer, where she can sit on speed, and prove hard to run down.

1 Black Queen (Bet Now: $1.70) is looking to make it three on the bounce. Chris Waller trained mare that was a strong winner last time out at Wyong. She was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure, fended them off and was too good. Creeping up in the weights, but is hard to beat.

8 First Courrier (Bet Now: $9.00) lacks the class of some of these, but has gate one and down in the weights, so he’s in with a shout. Ran over the mile at Kembla last time and didn’t fire a shot in a plain effort behind Stolen Glance. Up in trip from the soft gate, he’s a first four contender.

6 Rebel Shadow (Bet Now: $3.20) on top for me. Gary Portelli trained gelding that resumed here two weeks ago where he was dragged back from the wide gate but worked home strongly late when third. He can sit much closer in the run from the inside draw and has upside to come.

7 Transformation (Bet Now: $2.70) comes here a few weeks between runs, having not raced since his resumption on Cup Day at Randwick where he was back in the run and closed off strongly when third. Gets the jockey upgrade and from a good gate, he’ll take beating here.

11 Lovelier (Bet Now: $10.00) hasn’t been too bad in two career outings. Chris Waller trained filly that that was specked at odds when racing here two weeks back. She sat on speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth in what I think is a good form race going forward. Soft draw, she’s in the mix.

The Godolphin pair look to fight this out. Gate one and J Mac, just leaning towards 3 Argentado (Bet Now: $2.80). Lonhro filly that is on debut off the back of two trials, winning the first trial at Hawkesbury before a strong third at Warwick Farm. Looks to have had a good grounding for start one so happy to be in her corner.

6 Hellfest (Bet Now: $4.00) is a well bred filly that is also having her first start. She is by Fastnet Rock out of Mid Summer Music, who was a very good mare for Peter Moody around a decade ago. She too has had a couple of trials to prepare and to the eye, hasn’t gone too bad, so keen to see how she goes.

2 Affability (Bet Now: $11.00) is a well bred filly that is also having her first start. She is by Fastnet Rock out of Mid Summer Music, who was a very good mare for Peter Moody around a decade ago. She too has had a couple of trials to prepare and to the eye, hasn’t gone too bad, so keen to see how she goes.

9 Bacchanalia (Bet Now: $1.75) is also accepted for Saturday at Rosehill but if they run here, he’s a good thing. Talented three year old for James Cummings that resumed down the straight at Flemington on Cup Day where he was well tried and while he didn’t win, his finale behind Profiteer was quite good. That form just reads too well for this.

7 Warrior Hero (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to have his share of talent for the Freedman camp. Had one trial leading into his resumption over 1000m on Cup Day at Randwick and worked to the line strongly from off the speed when third to impressive winner Satin Ribbons. Fitter, he has the quality to measure up here.

4 Electric (Bet Now: $12.00) can be an improver here for Team Hawkes. Resumed at Gosford and he just looked drunk around the tight track. He didn’t handle it at all so want to be forgiving of that effort. Trialled behind quality sprinter The Face prior so I think he deserves another chance.

Best on the night for me is clearly 5 Cross Talk (Bet Now: $1.60). Former Kiwi for the WaterBott camp that made his Australian debut at Hawkesbury on Oaks Day. It wasn’t the strongest field he beat up, but gee he was impressive from the front the way he put them away and he looks like a horse that will go through his grades, including here.

8 Heza Gentleman (Bet Now: $5.00) will be the fly in the ointment for Cross Talk. He was dominant when on speed/rail here two weeks ago and I think the key to his chances will be looking to repeat history. He has the gate advantage over Cross Talk so could hold up, but ideally for me re Cross Talk, he takes cover.

14 Lucky To Win (Bet Now: $26.00) is an interesting runner. He was scratched from a lowly race earlier in the week and instead runs in town in a race where he seems outclassed on paper. Comfortably held in a Wyong Class 1 last time so on form, no, but wet track stats are okay and is drawn well with the claim.

5 Strange Charm (Bet Now: $4.00) to win again. Formerly with Anthony Cummings, she’s now with Kris Lees and the first run for the stable was here two weeks ago where she led throughout and was dominant, admittedly helped by the bias, but who is to say that won’t be the case again? If it’s on speed/fence, she’s the one to beat, again.

6 Miss Einstein (Bet Now: $2.60) is a talented mare for Bjorn Baker that will need luck from the gate but she’s capable of winning if the breaks go her way. Resumed behind Strange Charm and didn’t get the rub of the green in the straight. In saying that, not sure she was beating the eventual winner. Needs luck but hard to beat if she gets it.

10 Snippy Fox (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Joe Pride mare that resumes. Hasn’t raced since June 12 when racing over the mile at Randwick and tiring late behind Seentoomany. Has had three trials to get ready for her return, so the prep is there to suggest a good fresh run is on the cards. Watch the market.

3 Jump The Broom (Bet Now: $2.20) on top. Team Hawkes trained mare that didn’t beat a great deal fresh at the Valley, but the arrogance in the win from the front was most impressive. She could have won by further had Kersley got stuck in properly. Good test for her here, but confident she measures up.

7 Sur La Mer (Bet Now: $5.50) is getting towards last chance territory. I was pretty keen on her when she raced here two weeks ago, but she was very plain I thought after seemingly getting every chance from J Mac. That was a Soft7 and her first look at wet ground, so the fact she runs here tells me the stable think she can handle getting her toe in.

12 Wenet (Bet Now: $11.00) is a progressive filly for the WaterBott camp. Has won two on the bounce, both wins coming over 1300m at Scone and each time, she has found under pressure when looking a beaten horse. Good trait to have, she’ll put herself on speed and try hard.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Cross Talk

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 9 Bachanalia

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 4 Merlinite

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 9

Leg Two: 5

Leg Three: 5, 6, 8, 10

Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 9, 12

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