26/12/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Christmas Stakes day

Caulfield will host their traditional Boxing Day program this Tuesday with a strong eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

6 Netherfield (Bet Now: $2.60) should be putting this field away. Very progressive galloper for Mick Price who wasn’t suited by the slow tempo first up at Cranbourne before racing on Werribee Cup Day where he did work in the run and looked beaten but he kept finding. Third up at 1800m looks ideal on his home track. Keen.

2 Andrea Mantegna (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Darren Weir trained five year old who ran over 1500m at Bendigo last Sunday where he was wide no cover for the trip yet stuck to the task gamely behind Burrum’s Buzz. Should get a more economical run from the draw this time around and up to 1800m is a big tick for this entire.

1 Gold Fields (Bet Now: $6.50) is the unknown. He is over a month between runs since contesting the Wodonga Cup where he was wide no cover for the journey and was a beaten a horse a fair way out, where he was later found to have pulled up lame in both front legs. On his best form, he’s up to these for sure.

6 The Mighty Jrod (Bet Now: $7.50) has returned in really good form this prep for the Robbie Laing team. Won his first two runs back from a break before racing at Sandown last Wednesday where he chased a hot speed yet hit the front and tried hard but was only nabbed late by Castle Hackett. Maps super and has only got 51kg on his back, so he’ll take some beating.

5 Casta (Bet Now: $6.00) is an unknown at the 2400m, but he is in good form so he goes in. He ran over 2000m on Pakenham Cup Day and tried hard but just couldn’t peg back O’Lonera. As I said, I think beyond ten furlongs is the worry, but he does draw gate one and overall, this field has very little depth to it.

1 Goodwood Zodiac (Bet Now: $9.00) can bounce back hard here. Waterhouse/Bott trained stayer who I liked in the Pakenham Cup but a combination of going to keen in front and copping pressure from Darabad wasn’t ideal. Should lead for fun here, and though rising sharply in weight, he should take some beating with a cheap sectional or two.

12 So Splendid (Bet Now: $6.00) looks the value and I think she can bounce back hard. She was a drifter in betting when racing at the Valley last time out but just got too far back in the run in what was a forgive run to my eye behind Tenappy Ladies. Drawing wide is a definite tick, as she should get clear running, and Olly rides.

11 River Goddess (Bet Now: $8.50) is a daughter of Northern Meteor for the in form Ellerton/Zahra team who had market support when resuming at Wangaratta and the bets were landed when charging home late under Ben Thompson. Record second up isn’t great, but I like she has been given the three week break from the resumption.

8 Addison (Bet Now: $8.00) won two from two to kick off her career under Andrew Payne. She was then sent to the Hayes/Dabernig yard where she resumed at Bendigo and was close up in defeat behind Hard Empire, beaten just under two lengths. Big track and the mile looks ideal and stable rider takes over. Big improver.

4 Onehundred Percent (Bet Now: $4.40) on top. Very progressive galloper for Henry Dwyer who resumed on Werribee Cup Day. Did a bit of work on speed but took the front at the top of the straight under Jake Noonan and found plenty late when challenged. Blinkers are on which is note worthy and Olly takes the ride from a sweet draw.

2 Prevailing Winds (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Darren Weir trained three year old who took on three rivals last start at Mornington and was sent out an odds on pop. Ethan Brown took bad luck of the equation by sending the horse to the front and from there, it was relatively painless. Senior rider takes over, draws well, hard fit…ticks a few boxes.

Very interested to see how 1 Cao Cao (Bet Now: $4.80) goes. Returns to racing for Mick Price as a gelding so will the ultimate gear change spark him into action. Two runs back in the early part of the Spring were ordinary so he is now a gelding and on his best form, he’d blow this away. Just want to wait and see.

12 Alaskan Sun (Bet Now: $10.00) can be a hard one to trust, but I think each way, she should run a good race for you. She resumed over 1000m at the Valley where she was an alarming drifter, out to double figures after opening $5. Got well off the pace and for a moment looked as if she’d run last, but she picked up and gee she was sound late behind Bella Martini. Has the run under the belt, trained on the track and should get run of the race stuff from the paint.

13 Bella Martini (Bet Now: $3.40) is a daughter of Stratum who has returned in really good order. Stuck on well fresh when a narrow third to Ocean Deep before going to that Valley race mentioned above where she played up behind the gates but was passed fit and thankfully she was as she dominated from the front. Looks hard to beat.

6 Jocasta (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Team Corstens trained mare who has plenty of talent and can definitely win here with luck in running. She resumed over the 955m at the Valley and worked home from the back with real purpose when third to World Of Hope. Has run well at Caulfield and she draws to get good cover and launch late.

2 Payroll (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the standout option. Talented mare for Richard Laming who is five weeks between runs since racing in the Eclipse where she was well backed and under a lovely ride from Olly, she chased hard and wore down Kidmenever to win narrowly but impressively. Break between runs is no issue, and she really does look the one on form.

5 Jacquinot Bay (Bet Now: $7.00) is an absolute beauty for the Hayes/Dabernig team who ran on Pakenham Cup Day and his run against the tempo was enormous. Looked to be struggling but his last 250m was excellent when second to Master Reset. Draw makes things tough, but he seems to be racing as well as ever. Have to include him.

1 Master Of Arts (Bet Now: $7.50) is such an interesting runner. Classy animal that resumes for the Darren Weir yard. He hasn’t raced since the Adelaide Cup in March where he was a well backed favourite and he tried hard but the two miles just saw him out behind Annus Mirabilis. Has a really fresh record, likes Caulfield and a recent jump out was encouraging.

7 Lucky Liberty (Bet Now: $4.50) is a horse I’m prepared to take a chance on. Quality sprinter that resumes for the Henry Dwyer yard. He has had a stack of problems but when he is right, he’s a Group l class horse. Scored an outstanding win in this race last year and appears ready to go off a strong Colac trial placing on December 18.

4 Merriest (Bet Now: $5.50) looks one of the hardest to beat but $4.80 or thereabouts is skinny. She resumes from a Spring prep where she ran really well in the mares races but was tipped out after running behind Global Glamour without much luck in the Tristarc. Recent jump out was very good and she flies here.

3 Tried And Tired (Bet Now: $24.00) hadn’t won for a long time until last start at Pakenham where Ben Allen gave him a sweet ride just off the pace, which was genuine, before angling clear and finishing off strongly to break the long run of outs. He beat Jungle Edge in that race, which reads very well for this. Looks the overs.

19 Written In Stone (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Darren Weir trained gelding who hasn’t had much luck in his two runs. Was just an utter nightmare two back at Ballarat before racing here last Saturday where he was held up again in a forgive run behind Don’t Blush Baby. Just give him an ounce of good luck and he’ll be right in the mix.

11 Bord De Gain (Bet Now: $5.00) hasn’t done a great deal this prep for Kav but to be fair they have been in far stronger races. Hasn’t raced since Stakes Day at Flemington over 1400m when running behind Tribal Wisdom. Tends to race well on the fresh side, he is a winner at Caulfield, he draws to get good cover and have last say.

5 Dane Thunder (Bet Now: $8.50) is a quality galloper that resumes for the Shane Bottomley yard. He didn’t win a race last prep but gee he ran well in raes that had far more depth than this. Unknown how forward he is with no trials/jump outs, but he is a noted first up performer, he draws well and gets in form apprentice Steph Thornton steering.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Payroll

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Netherfield

VALUE: Race Five Number 12 Alaskan Sun

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 6, 9, 12, 13, 14

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Four: 5, 6, 7, 11, 19

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful