26/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Christmas Stakes day

Caulfield will host their traditional Boxing Day program on Sunday, headlined by the Christmas Stakes and Lord Stakes. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Christmas Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Christmas Stakes

Lord Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Lord Stakes

1 Decent Raine (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) is flying for the Maher/Eustace camp. Several weeks between runs since contesting the Twilight Glow and I think it’s safe to say that the gate cost her. Jumped well but had to drag back. Had she drawn better, I think she wins. Been up a while, but is holding her form superbly.

3 Victory Bay (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a well bred three year old for Peter Moody that comes here off the back of a debut win at The Valley where he had the suck run behind the speed before angling into clear air in the straight and liked the way he knuckled down to get the better of Endlessly. Harder here, but small field helps.

6 Royal Fox (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) has improved big time since the Blinkers have been applied. Spanked them in a maiden at the Bool on Jericho Cup Day. Then went to Flemington and worked home quite well late in the piece behind Philadelphia Storm. Been up a little while but is improving and is a key chance.

9 Yoshino (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) on top. James Cummings trained colt that debuted over 1000m at Bendigo. Took a little while to get into his work but was good late when warming to the task when third to Jamarra. Like him up to 1200m, can settle just off the speed from the gate and gets a jockey upgrade.

1 Jamarra (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has to be respected. He won that Bendigo race mentioned above and it was a peach from Johnny Allen to get him home. Played the waiting game to get the split and once it came, he drove hard late to nab then. Has a tricky gate to overcome but in the right camp.

7 Semper Invictus (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Scott Spackman trained gelding that is on debut off the back of a trial win at Albury where the Blinkers went on, he led throughout and though pushed out, did respond well to riding and drew clear. Interesting placement so not going to pen him.

4 Bay Of Islands (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Exceed And Excel for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes. Hasn’t raced since her debut back in October when an all the way winner at Donald, landing some good bets in the process. Looks to have jumped out well leading in and overall, this isn’t a strong race.

5 Dueastar (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a Zoustar filly for Beetroot Williams that resumes. Hasn’t raced since October 9 when far from disgraced in the Thoroughbred Club at Caulfield when a close up fourth to Sneaky Five. Has residual fitness on her side and a touch of class, so watch the market.

8 Irish Mist (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs for Nick Ryan since sitting on speed at Pakenham over 1000m in what was a good galloper and she stayed on quite soundly in defeat behind a smart animal, Marine One. That was her first run as a 3YO, and it was encouraging, so she commands respect here.

10 Yulong Defence (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding that is nearing a win. Loomed like it would come at Pakenham but he had to settle for a game second to Winsum. Has done little wrong in his eight start career and he does seem quite effective as a short course horse.

14 In The Boat (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a progressive four year old for Lindsey Smith that comes to town off the back of a win at the Bool where he led throughout. Went a bit keen in front and did a bit wrong, but was much too good. Harder here, but got the right racing style to give this a shake.

Giving respect to 11 Invincible Jet (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS). WaterBott trained gelding who resumes, having not raced since September 8 at Sandown when on speed and fought on pretty well in defeat behind subsequent Stakes winner Sirileo Miss. That is A1 form for what is a moderate 70 and his recent jumpout was a good piece of work.

11 Defiant Diva (Bet Now: $4.80) has found that winning feeling again after a decent run of outs and hopefully she can go on with it now. Peach from Johnny Allen saw her win last time out at Sandown. Was able to sit a pair closer in the run and she wasn’t getting beat from the 600m mark. If she brings that here, she’ll take beating.

14 Secret Glamour (Bet Now: $4.20) is a filly of some promise. Far from disgraced at Sandown two back behind subsequent Group winner Lady Of Honour. Then went to Flemington and worked home strongly when a narrow second to Philadelphia Storm. Does she want further? I’m saying yes, she gets it here and is in the right camp to progress.

4 Derive (Bet Now: $23.00) should be suited back to 70 grade. Strong winner two back at Sandown before contesting a hot 84 at Flemington and she ran a beauty in defeat behind Lighthouse albeit was helped by a kind race shape. That said, the form is A1 for an off season 70, so she appeals.

Right down in the weights, in form, leaning the way of 11 Laundy (Bet Now: $4.60). His recent runs have come under the lights at The Valley, the latest being over 2040m when the bob of the head was the difference between winning and losing. If he gets luck from the gate, I say he only runs well.

5 Lyrical Lad (Bet Now: $3.10) is a decent prospect for Phillip Stokes. Looking to make it three on the bounce, his latest win coming at Pakenham where he proved that he didn’t need a wet track, bolting up in another impressive display. No reason why he can’t make it three on the bounce.

7 Our Mantra (Bet Now: $67.00) was a horse I specked at $101+ last time out on Pakenham Cup Day. Maddy Lloyd gave him a peach steer, but the horse just wasn’t good enough. He’s fourth up here, so should just about be at peak fitness and off his Queensland form at 2000m+, he’s in with a shout.

7 Winning Partner (Bet Now: $7.50) should be suited back up in trip for the McEvoy camp. Was 1500m back to 1400m when racing in the Gold Bullion three weeks ago at Pakenham and worked to the line strongly I thought behind Looks Like Elvis, a dominant winner. Back up in trip, he appeals.

10 Holbein (Bet Now: $14.00) will put himself on speed and run his usual honest race. Led everywhere bar the final hop at Pakenham when nabbed by the very consistent Frankie Pinot. 1700m is a little query but he has the right racing pattern and with a soft lead, he could run a cheeky race.

I’m not giving up on (Bet Now: $34.00) 4 In A Twinkling… yet. His first two runs were very encouraging. The Pakenham Cup run was disappointing I thought after seemingly getting every chance in transit. If you can forgive one average run, the two runs prior suggested he was on track.

17 Marabi… (Bet Now: $1.55) just how good is she? She was stunning first up at Ballarat. Led throughout, smashed the clock and looks to have the potential to reach the top level. I will say she has been beautifully placed throughout her career. Good test for her here but confident she measures up and wins again.

12 Curran (Bet Now: $14.00), I think, is flying. He has let punters down this Spring but that aside, he’s racing well. I want to be forgiving of his effort in the Doveton last time out at Caulfield. Considering leader to post last 600m was 32.78 so Curran would have had to run sub 32 to win. Impossible. Better suited here and can bounce back.

3 Sartorial Splendor (Bet Now: $51.00) will look the winner for around 850m/900m of this race. Might be the entire 1100m if the track is playing towards those on speed. Resumed in the Kensington at Flemington and just couldn’t finish it off after sitting on speed. Better for the run, his best is good enough.

Throw at the stumps in the last via 5 Zoltan (Bet Now: $12.00), a former Kiwi that makes his Australian debut for Symon Wilde. He has some pretty solid NZ form around him and I thought he moved very well on speed in a recent Mortlake jumpout win. Hopefully can get a decent price to speck each way.

2 Sig Positano (Bet Now: $6.50) is racing in super form for Patrick Payne. Strong winner two back at Pakenham before going to The Valley where he was off the speed and chased strongly late when second to Exeter. This, overall, is a thin 78…just needs clear air from the gate to go close.

3 Do You Reckon (Bet Now: $18.00) is racing really well at the moment and is a definite winning chance here. Ran in a strong 84 two weeks back at Flemington when on speed and stuck to the task quite well in defeat behind a future Stakes class mare in Lighthouse. That form does read well for this.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 17 Marabi

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Decent Raine

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Zoltan

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 11

Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 10

Leg Three: 17

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful