26/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Underwood Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday where it is Underwood Stakes Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Underwood Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Underwood Stakes

2 How Womantic (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a talented mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that does appear to be a short course specialist, so back to 1100m isn’t a negative for her. Resumed over 1200m at the Valley three weeks ago and I thought the ride from Neindorf was a pearler in front. Back to 1100m is fine, puts herself on speed and is hard to beat.

7 Pinyin… (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) can you back her with confidence? No, but she does have the ability to win this. Needed a confidence boost and she got it at Cranbourne, finishing right over the top and getting the job done despite wanting to lay in under pressure. Ability wise, she’s a Saturday class horse. Her racing pattern just lets her down.

3 Miss Iano (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is a Mark Webb trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since July 25 here when down the track and at the end of a long prep behind She’s A Thief, who of course ran well in the How Now last Saturday, so that form doesn’t read too bad. Good fresh record too, so one for multiples I’d suggest.

The gate makes things tricky, but I’ll take a chance on the former French and Hong Kong galloper 14 Not Mine (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS), that makes his Australian debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. His form was so so when in Hong Kong towards the end of his stint there, but through his form, he has form around the likes of Furore and Waikuku, which is A1, and when in France, he was beaten two lengths in a Group l. Two jumpouts have been strong and if he can overcome the gate, he’ll take some beating.

Willow, it looked like, was steering Not Mine in jumpouts so the fact he goes with 12 Grand De Flora (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) interests me. This mare was progressing nicely before a major flop at Caulfield, and was spelled soon after. Seemed to get squeezed up in her jumpout and wasn’t asked for an effort soon after so hard to read how she’s come back, but Willow on and gate one are two ticks.

2 Rainbow Thief (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) has class and that will carry him a long way here. Resumed in the Chandler McLeod at the Valley and was just fair without being overly great behind Showmanship, who has been the go to horse re a form reference in recent weeks. Drops to a very winnable 78. Just needs to contend with a wide gate.

Hard to get away from 3 Le Baol (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) and what he did at his Australian debut over 1800m at Sandown. Sat near the speed throughout and looked to travel very well before Rodd clicked him up and away he went, scoring a dominant win. Fitter, up to 2000m, in the right camp…hard to find a real negative with this guy.

5 Good Idea (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is suited up to 2000m for Phillip Stokes. Resumed over 1700m at Flemington two weeks ago and didn’t seem to appreciate racing tight between runners but was still far from disgraced in defeat behind The Chosen One. Much better suited in this kind of race and is a second up winner. Hard to beat if he brings his best.

4 Prince Ziggy (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is teasing to win one this prep and I think a rise to 2000m will really be ideal. Comes through The Chosen One race from a fortnight back and was working to the line pretty well despite never really being a winning threat. Crying out for further, which he gets here, and can improve out of sight.

3 Runson (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) will put himself on speed and give his all. Team Corstens trained gelding that resumed in The Heath when leading and giving a reall good kick under Johnny Allen. Just found a couple better near the line when third to Diamond Effort. Looks like he will lead this field up and take some beating.

1 Order Of Command (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) has plenty of class on his side and that may well carry him over the line here. Danny O’Brien trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since June 20 down the Flemington straight when warming to the task late behind I Am Someone. Can’t find a jumpout, so bit of guessing, but banking on class.

Back to a truly run 1200m I do like with 8 Street Icon (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). Ran two weeks ago in the Let’s Elope at Flemington and seemed to have her chance. Ran well, but never really a winning threat behind Pretty Brazen. Back to 1200m I think is a positive for this mare and with a more genuine tempo in front, he’ll be strong late.

7 Windstorm (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the pony to bet on. Team Williams trained four year old that ran in The Sofitel two weeks ago at Flemington and I thought Pike rode a 12/10 race on him. Just couldn’t quite ping when clicked up and was bloused near the peg by Travimyfriend. Is he a query at a strong 1400m? We’ll get a good guide to that here.

9 Adelaide Ace (Bet Now: $11.00) looks back on track for Lindsey Smith. Was a bit worried after his first up run behind Showmanship but they rode him cold at Flemington two weeks ago and it seemed to do the trick because he found the line with real purpose late behind Travimyfriend. Think he’s nearing a win and wouldn’t shock if it came here.

4 Travimyfriend (Bet Now: $8.00) surprised most when winning The Sofitel because the track was seemingly too firm for him, but it mattered not to him as he produced a brilliant finale from the back and out wide to score, setting up a new career PB, especially on ground he finds inferior. If he holds that here, he’s in the game for sure.

8 Aysar (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. Hayes/Dabernig trained three year old that has looked a Guineas horse for a little while now. Impressive win at Sandown before being spelled. Resumed there a couple of Wednesdays back and despite lumping 61kg, class got him home and was too good. Harder here, but I think he’s well and truly up to it.

Good test here for 3 Crosshaven (Bet Now: $5.50) but I think he’s up to it. Solid enough in defeat fresh in the McNeil before going to 1400m at Flemington when putting himself on speed and in a sprint home, he finished best and was too good. Harder here for this guy, but he’s hard fit, puts himself into the race and does try hard.

5 Amish Boy (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained three year old that was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Danehill but he ran super, sitting towards the inside of the pack and finding the line strongly when second to Doubtland. Looks right on track for potentially the Derby, but he can run a positive race here.

I think 6 Personal (Bet Now: $6.50) is the #1 seed of the Victorian fillies when it comes to the Thousand Guineas and she can confirm that with a win here.The Winkers going on I find interesting, but it was a gear change that sparked a second up win at Geelong last prep. Resumed in the Danehill and was solid enough in defeat behind Doubtland. Think the gear change will spark her into action.

5 Night Raid (Bet Now: $4.20) has done nothing wrong in two runs back from a spell. Gave them a spanking to get the maiden kill at Tatura before going to the Atlantic Jewel where she was impressive in winning, and strong to and through the line, suggesting 1400m would be ideal, and on her home track, is hard to beat.

Bit of #SF here with 7 Rock My Wand (Bet Now: $15.00) and if this rain does get worse as the day progresses, I could easily have something on her at the big odds. Her run at the midweeks at Canterbury last time out was very good when second to Emanate. She’s a swimmer and stable does have a good record in Melbourne.

All things being equal, 10 Russian Camelot (Bet Now: $1.90) wins the race. The resumption in the Makybe Diva was very good, sitting wide throughout (albeit a crawling tempo) and still finding the line to run second to Fierce Impact. His GF is the Melbourne Cup, so will there be a hint of second up syndrome? Market will be the guide.

The way I see 9 Arcadia Queen (Bet Now: $5.00), I don’t think she’ll measure up in a Cox Plate, so this along with the Empire Rose look her two big chances to snare a major. I’m thinking she’ll be ready to rock and roll here. Had a set back which forced her out of the Memsie and instead run in the Let’s Elope where she was very good, just missing out on picking up Pretty Brazen. Fitter and up in trip, she’s very likeable.

7 The Chosen One (Bet Now: $13.00) looks on track for the Caulfield Cup. Not sure many expected his effort first up at Flemington but it was a very impressive return to the track, bolting up over 1700m and won in good time. Takes on some high class horse flesh here, so not sure he wins, but I think is one for multiples.

8 Nonconformist (Bet Now: $3.50) on top. Grahame Begg trained four year old who is several weeks between runs since resuming over 1400m here and I loved the way he warmed to the task late when third to I Am Superman. Been given a break between runs, so will he need this run before showing his best? Perhaps, but is hard to beat.

4 Inverloch (Bet Now: $7.50) is a horse I could back in races like the Cranbourne Cup, Coongy and Ballarat Cup. Those kind of races. Big return from him behind Travimyfriend two weeks back at Flemington when a closing fourth, bearing in mind he started $101. Goes better as the prep goes on, so think he has to be seriously respected.

5 Kentucky Breeze (Bet Now: $19.00) is a two time second up winner and can be a sneaky chance against these. Resumed over 1400m at Flemington and was warming to the task late despite never really being a winning threat behind Travimyfriend. Likes racing at Caulfield and has upside to come, so is a chance for sure.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 3 Le Baol

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 10 Russian Camelot

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Personal

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 8, 10

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 9, 10

Leg Four: 4, 5, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful