27/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Festival Stakes day

Ten races will be run and won at Rosehill on Saturday for Festival Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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This looks a very tricky race for the juveniles. When in doubt, go to the best stable when it comes to this age bracket, which is James Cummings and Godolphin, so I’m with 14 Victorine (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). Looked a smooth mover in her Warwick Farm trial win when on speed and under a hold from J Mac, winning quite impressively. Hard to beat with luck from the draw.

2 Affidavit (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Frosted on debut for James Cummings. He was pushed out to win his Warwick Farm trial but what I liked is that when pressure was applied, he responded, and further to that, when a gap needed to be taken, he took it. He’ll run well here.

16 Vancouver’s Crown (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) looks a nice horse and if he gains a start, will be more than competitive. Debuted in the Max Lees at Newcastle and I think with clear air, he wins instead of a luckless seventh. Had trialled well prior to that. Had he drawn a decent gate and gained a star, he’d be top pick.

8 King’s Trust (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a hard horse to catch but I think his best is good enough and with gate one, Tommy on, he’ll do me. Down the track behind Brave Enough at Rosehill a few weeks back but proven performer at this level and for an in form stable, I’ll speck him at odds.

This won’t be an easy task for 1 Participator (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS) but he does look a promising animal for Tim Donnelly. 2/2 to start his career, both wins coming over 1200m at Wagga, his home track, so first big trip away from home and taking on some handy types, he’ll need to bring his A Game but beware the unbeaten horse. Don’t know how good they are til they are beaten.

18 Extravagent Lad (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) has his share of talent for Scott Collings and is in with a shout here. Backed with confidence first up at Gundagai and despite sitting wide no cover on speed, he took the front and dashed nicely late to score. Two winners to come from the race already and although a clear step up here, his form from last prep does read well.

Up to 2000m, I’m keen on 4 Rebel Rama (Bet Now: $2.10 TOP ODDS). Whether it was a prep run for this race, not sure, but her run here last Wednesday over 1800m was of a mare wanting more ground, with a very patient ride from Jason Collett seeing her flash home and just missing on the win. Hard fit now, up to her favourite trip, keen.

8 Viren (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) looks to be one of the main dangers to the short priced favourite (if there is one). He has been consistant this preparation without winning and has decent form on a soft track so could cause a bit of an upset if the fav fails to fire.

We saw last night at Canterbury a reminder that below the minimum on really wet ground is a big, big tick, so I’m respecting 13 Foxtrot Bravo (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS). He doesn’t have the form of some of these, but can handle wet ground and his recent efforts have been sound and right down in the weights, he’ll be around the mark.

5 Mightybeel (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS) is racing super for Chris Waller and I think he can win again. Set an impossible task two back here when second to Lord Ardmore. Turned the tables on that horse two weeks ago at Newcastle, with J Mac making sure he had sight of the bunny and was within range to pounce. Heading in the right direction and is hard to beat.

I’m going to give 4 Kiss The Bride (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) another chance. I was keen on her last time out in the Beauford at Newcastle and on the turn, it looked no betting, but as soon as pressure was applied, he found nothing. Back to 2000m I do like for him and start prior to last, he was a length off Think It Over at this track/distance. Brings that form here and he wins. Can you forgive last start.

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 1 Polly Grey (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS). This mare resumed in the Hot Danish and though 1400m was short of her best, the race shape didn’t suit her so be forgiving of the fact she failed to beat a runner home. Liked her recent tick over trial and she’s got more upside than most.

Market will be fascinating here. I’m with 9 Cloudy (Bet Now: $8.00) but the market will tell you if she’s ready to go. Quality filly that dodged the Spring to focus on the Summer. Showed good promise as a juvenile, winning a couple of Stakes races in Adelaide, so she has the runs on the board and I thought her recent trial win at Hawkesbury was a sharp piece of work. Hopefully the market tells me she’s ready.

8 Irish Angel (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Chris Waller trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since August 7 when producing an end of prep run at Randwick when down the track behind stablemate Starla. Thought she trialled up quite well behind Snapdancer to get ready for her return and is a good fresh horse.

2 Undeniable (Bet Now: $4.40) is a very genuine mare for Matty Smith. Three weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance where she tried her guts out but had to settle for a narrow second to a potential Stakes class mare, Amiche. That form does look to read well for this despite the form out of it not standing up last Saturday on a shifty Kembla track.

Never thought I’d see the day I’d be backing 10 Monsieur Sisu (Bet Now: $26.00) on a Saturday metro program but given the track is bottomless and he’ll be on speed, he goes on top. Too bad to be true at Canterbury last time but he gets Kathy back on, he should be in the first couple and running a bold race.

2 Lord Ardmore (Bet Now: $4.00) has done little wrong since arriving in Australia for Chris Waller. Lovely ride from Magorrian saw him win two back here. Then went to Newcastle and looked the winner for a few strides, but had no answers late for the finale produced by stablemate Mightybeel. He appeals here.

1 Cisco Bay (Bet Now: $7.00) is a hard horse to catch but his best is certainly good enough to take this out. If you were on his back at Newcastle last time, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. He should have won but just had no luck in the straight when bolting for clear air. If he gets it here, he can win.

3 Edison (Bet Now: $14.00) is being aimed at the Magic Millions you’d assume so 1100m is short of his best, but he is such a good wet tracker. Resumes for Bjorn Baker and with two strong 1200m trials under the belt, even though 1100m isn’t his best trip, he’s got the grounding to give this a shake I think.

1 Southern Lad (Bet Now: $5.00) is a beauty for John O’Shea. Loved the set up for him fresh at Randwick and aided by a peach from Bowman, he was able to drive hard late and nab them. Kept fresh to maintain the sprint in his legs and looked sharp in a tick over trial. He’ll be strong at the end.

6 Mamaragan (Bet Now: $12.00) is a very hard horse to follow and trust, but is he back? Trialled like a jet prior to resuming at Randwick on Cup Day where he bombed the start, sat last in the run and worked home strongly, albeit helped by a fast speed when fourth to Southern Lad. Was he flattered? Perhaps, but his best is more than good enough.

I’m really keen on 3 Order Again (Bet Now: $10.00) running well here fresh. He’s an enigma that can be hard to catch, but his first up efforts since joining Chris Waller have been super. First up last prep, ran a game third in the Scone Cup. Prep prior fresh, he bolted up on the Kenso track and before that, closed off strongly from the back when fourth to Dealmaker. Loved his trial to get ready for this…I think he only runs well.

2 Bandersnatch (Bet Now: $5.00) deserves another chance. Just one soft trial leading into The Hunter where he seemed to have every chance but failed to finish it off and I’d have to mark him down as disappointing. He does have credits in the bank though and back at home, an improved showing is on the cards.

13 Brutality (Bet Now: $6.00) would love this track to remain to have give in it. He’s flying. Super run from the back two weeks back at Newcastle when a fast finishing third to Much Much Better after getting a mile back. If he can get luck from the gate and be within range, he can take this out.

3 Blaze A Trail (Bet Now: $5.50) is a promising animal. He’s had a couple of homes throughout his career. Now with the Maher/Eustace camp and I think the stable will have fun with him. Market wanted to be with him late when resuming at Rosehill despite being fresh at 1200m and class came to the fore. He wants a dry deck, so if the forecast for light rain doesn’t affect the track too much, he’ll take beating.

4 Brookspire (Bet Now: $2.80) is a talented mare for Chris Waller that resumes. She hasn’t raced since the early part of the Spring, bolting up fresh on the Kenso track before sitting wide no cover at Kembla and tiring late behind impressive winner Love Tap. Fresh does seem best for her and won’t mind give in the track. Hard to beat.

8 Mollycoddle (Bet Now: $17.00) is getting towards peak fitness for James Cummings. Sound return at Warwick Farm behind stablemate Promotions. Then raced at Randwick on Cup Day when just behind the speed and battled on pretty well in defeat when third to Too Much Caviar. Third up, she appeals.

16 Sacred Command (Bet Now: $4.60) seems very one paced to my eye so the 1500m on wet ground here I find interesting. He was heavily backed a fortnight back over the mile at Newcastle and for mine, he had every chance when fourth to Huetor. Start prior here he was luckless but the form out of it has been plain. Chance with luck from the draw.

12 Lease (Bet Now: $4.80) has been up a while but continues to race well. He ran two weeks ago in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle when near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well in defeat behind impressive winner Festival Dancer. Ran second on a bottomless track to that horse at Newcastle so the wet should be okay.

4 Bergen (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the seven day back up for John O’Shea after racing last Saturday at Kembla. He was near the speed throughout and doing work, tiring late to finish down the track behind Steely. 88 back to 78 grade, if the wet track is no issue, he can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Rebel Rama

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 3 Blaze A Trail

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Order Again

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg Two: 2, 3, 11, 13

Leg Three: 3, 4

Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 12, 16

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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