27/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Guineas day

A bumper nine race card has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday where it is Australian Guineas Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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5 Tycoon Humma (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) clearly on top for me. Well bred filly that debuted over 1000m at Bendigo where she was met with confident market support and that faith was justified. She was dominant and charged clear late, running good time. Draws the right part of the track, should get a decent drag up and use her turn of foot.

1 Kallos (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) has the Godolphin polish and should command some level of respect. Good in defeat on debut at the Valley before going to the Blue Diamond Prelude when far from disgraced in defeat behind General Beau. This is a significant drop in depth and is in the right stable to bounce back.

8 Wanaroo (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Greg Eurell trained filly that debuted over 1000m at the Valley when a rank outsider and was very green in the run, but her finale was very strong late between runners, albeit the race rated poorly. Not sure she wins, but is one for multiples.

Mark Newnham believes 3 Skymax (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) is a Sydney Cup horse so I’m keen to see how he goes. Looked his race last time out in the Australia Day Cup at Warwick Farm, with a dry track and weight relief, and he was able to win, beating Wolfe, who was plain last Saturday at Caulfield. So the strength of the form? Not sure, but he’s lightly raced with upside and a turn of foot.

1 Nelson (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) can be a real improver here. Symon Wilde trained galloper that resumed in the Torney Cup at the Valley where he was one of the first off the bit but kept finding and was a pass mark I thought behind Starcaster. Has upside to come and stable is in a real purple patch at the moment.

8 Ripcord (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. The Paul Preusker camp is absolutely flying at the moment and this guy is finding form as well. Lovely ride from Declan Bates saw him win impressively at Bendigo last time, and the form has been franked with Shepard bolting up last Wednesday at Sandown. Down in the weights and does no work from the gate.

Looks an idea kick off point for 1 I Am Superman (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS). The key to him is dry ground and with Randwick being wet, I dare say he runs here first up. Resumes, having not raced since contesting a very fast run Cantala when far from disgraced in defeat behind Yulong Prince. Has trialled well to prepare and should get a lovely cart over via Morvada/Sansom.

2 The Harrovian (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Team Edmonds that resumes with eyes towards the All Star Mile. Given that race is two weeks away, you’d like to think he’ll be relatively forward in condition for this race, and the thing with him is that he is a winner, something that can’t be said about some of these.

7 Morvada (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a very genuine horse for Peter Jolly who will put himself on speed and give his all. That was the case two weeks ago here when leading and he gave a really good kick. Just couldn’t quite see it through when third to Regardsmaree. Lands in front and will prove hard to run down.

Fitter and a significant jockey upgrade, I’m with 3 Laverrod (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS), second up for the Casey team. Resumed here two weeks ago down the straight when near the speed throughout and battling away strongly, just peaking on the run late when a close up third to I’m Telling Ya. Draws wide, so gets clear air from the outset and love the booking of Olly.

6 Subedar (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) looks the horse to beat, quite clearly, provided there is no second up syndrome off a long break. Resumed several weeks ago at Randwick and worked home nicely from the back when second to All Time Legend, who should have won his past two. That form looks strong enough for this and his tick over trial was a good piece of work.

7 I’m Telling Ya (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for the Yargi camp. He saves his best for the straight track and when he gets conditions to suit, he can rattle off a brilliant finale, as we saw when he won here a fortnight back, finishing over the top under a lovely steer from Jye McNeil. Always has to be respected when racing here.

Sometimes you just have to go with class and that clearly lies with 1 Hey Doc (Bet Now: $18.00). 1000m is short of his best and has to lump 63kg, but he is the class runner being a multiple Group l winner. Has a great overall record but does sprint well fresh and thought his Avoca jumpout was good enough to suggest a bold showing here is on the cards.

2 Fabergino (Bet Now: $3.50) is a ripping mare for Tiarnna Robertson that will put herself on speed and give her all. That is what she did in the Lightning and gee she was courageous in defeat behind Nature Strip. The straight course 1000m set up is her A1 go to in life, so she’s hard to beat.

8 All Banter (Bet Now: $5.00) is a very honest filly for the Jolly camp. I’m sure the temptation would have been there to have a crack at the Oakleigh Plate but instead they run here and tackle the softer option. Her win on Boxing Day was very good at Caulfield given she set a decent clip and was there to be run down but found enough on the line. Keen to see how she goes in a stronger race.

11 Buffalo River (Bet Now: $2.80) looks very hard to beat. Resumed over 1400m here two weeks ago in what was a slowly run race so entitled to kick on like he did, only nabbed late by Regardsmaree. That is a good platform for a race like this, he lands on speed and if he can relax, he’s the one to beat.

The jury is out on 6 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $7.00) and this race will be the true decider as to whether she still has that zest for racing. Had too much to do in a slowly run race fresh, then at Hobart last time, she was ordinary. Had the right run, was there to win, but was losing ground on a Country Cups horse. If she found anything near her best, she wins…but is she going any good?

9 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $35.00) will be better suited once he steps up in trip further, but he was a sneaky good run two weeks back here. Wasn’t really sighted, but his last 50-75m, he was really taking ground off and his late splits were very encouraging. Not sure I could back him to win but a must for multiples.

I’m really surprised near double figures was first up for 3 Aysar (Bet Now: $5.50). I think the map is just perfect for him. To my eye, he is a horse who has a short turn of foot and then just maintains a certain speed. That looked the case in the CS Hayes. Loomed to beat Tagaloa, but that horse was strong late and too good. Does no work from the gate and confident he goes close despite having a tag as a non winner.

16 Zou Dancer (Bet Now: $5.00) is a key threat for me. On raw times, she will need to improve a touch to beat Tagaloa, but sometimes you just have to trust your eye, and she was arrogant in winning The Vanity. Lot of class about her win and she made Oaks winner Personal look second rate. Good test for her here, but confident she can measure up.

If there is to be a knockout chance, I feel it will be 5 Dom To Shoot (Bet Now: $11.00). WA three year old that resumed in the CS Hayes and while he was never a winning threat to Tagaloa, he did find the line pretty well in a good resumption. If he can sit closer in the run, feel he will be dangerous at odds.

Is 2 The Bopper (Bet Now: $6.50) overrated? The jury is out on him for sure after a couple of plain runs to start the prep. Disappointing fresh at Rosehill before going to the Inglis Sprint where he didn’t fire a shot behind Rocketing By. Drops to a very winnable race here at his best…but is he going any good? Time will tell. But two big ticks. Dry track and J Kah on.

3 Rocketing By (Bet Now: $3.90) is hard to beat here. David Pfieffer has done a fab job with him, winning 3/3 this prep. Latest run came a few weeks ago in the Inglis Sprint at Randwick, producing an electric turn of foot between runners to get up and win. If he runs up to his form, he should be taking this out.

Think the odds on offer is good enough to take with the Mark Newnham trained 8 Lord Olympus (Bet Now: $9.00). Did a really good job in his first prep, winning four of six and placing on one other occasion. Couple of Hawkesbury trials to get him ready and he looks to be ticking along nicely. Think he’s hard to beat.

5 Yamazaki (Bet Now: $31.00) is a quality mare for David Pfieffer that has been freshened up since racing on Magic Millions Day at the Gold Coast when down the track in an on speed race dominated by The Odyssey. The key to her is dry ground, so finding that here is perfect, and she does have an explosive turn of foot when right.

10 Paul’s Regret (Bet Now: $7.00) is three weeks between runs for Peter Chow since racing in the Bellmaine where she had a suck run behind the speed before getting clear air late and finding the line pretty well behind impressive winner Probabeel, who franked the form in the Futurity. How well does that read for this!?

3 Mamzelle Tess (Bet Now: $19.00) can be an improver here at odds. Resumed off a long spell in the Bellamine and just looked race rusty, needing the run but far from disgraced in defeat behind Probabeel. Has a sharp second up record and 1400m is her sweet spot I feel. Knockout chance against these.

BEST BET: Race One Number 5 Tycoon Humma

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Skymax

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Yamazaki

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 6, 9, 11

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 16

Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 8, 13

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 10, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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