27/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, The Showdown day

A bumper card of racing has been set down for Caulfield this Saturday where it is VOBIS Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

2 William Thomas (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) is the best horse in the race, comfortably, but where he gets to from the wide draw is the query. Showed good ability when last in work with a couple of city wins, including one here over 1200m. Suspect he wants that trip based on the jumpouts, but does have a touch of class and I like Olly being booked for the first up assignment.

14 Propelle (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) is a few weeks between runs for the Ellerton/Zahra stable after racing here last time out where she tried hard as she always does but couldn’t match it with the first two in Columbus Circle and Leiter. Takes on the older horses, but is a filly that has always showed good promise and I think with fresh legs, she can be effective against this lot.

8 Miss Street (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is just an absolute beauty for Jerome Hunter. Winning machine at the moment, winning four on end, the latest under the lights at Cranbourne where she led all the way and bolted in under a confident steer from an in form apprentice in Mikaela Claridge. Likely bowls along in front and despite up in grade, I’m giving her respect here against this lot.

Taking a chance on 8 Another Eclipse (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS), a former UK galloper making his Australian debut for the Maher/Eustace stable. This bloke had a pretty good record when racing over there, winning a couple of races and placing on several other occasions. 2000m+ is when you’ll see the best of him I suspect, but I liked the way he ran to the line and through it in a recent jumpout. He’ll do me each way.

10 Ocean Deep (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Ocean Park for the Hayes/Dabernig team who is going great guns at the moment but just keeps finding one or two better. Ran over 1400m at Caulfield last time when attempting to lead all the way and for mine, she was given every chance by Meech but just found Truly Discreet too good. Finds a winnable race here and only runs well for mine.

5 Call It A Day (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) has done a ripping job this time in for Wez Hunter and his consistency was rewarded with an impressive win over this track/distance, landing on speed and giving nothing else a look in, scoring one of the better wins of the meeting I thought. Likely lands near the front again and he’s just so genuine. He’ll run his usual honest race. Got the class to beat these?

I think the grounding has been put in for 3 Spanner Head (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) to win first up. Archie Alexander trains this mare, who is borderline Stakes class, having run well at that level at times during the Spring. She can sprint well fresh and has had a couple of solid jumpouts in readiness for her return, the latest at Horsham when off speed before being clicked up and going through her gears nicely.

4 River Jewel (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained mare who is racing in career best form at the moment. Strong win two back under the lights at Pakenham before going to the Bendigo Bracelet where she beat all bar Miss Siska, who went on to place in the Coolmore Legacy at Group l level, so that reads so well for this. If there is a query with her, it’s a strong 1400m.

6 Amastryker (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) did have the tag as a bit of a non winner, but she’s racing really well at the moment for Matt Laurie and has strung together a couple of wins on the bounce, the last win coming over 1200m at Sale where she had to dig in for a few strides but pulled away late and was impressive. Chris Symons gets on well with her and should do no work from the gate.

I’m keen to back 2 Ligulate (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) for James Cummings. On the quick back up after racing at Newcastle last Thursday where he really had no hope given they absolutely crawled in front, and he would have had to run near sub 33 for his final 600m to win. Did an enormous job to get as close as he did to beating Stardome. Tempo should be more genuine this time around and he’ll do me.

Huge fan of 3 Tarwin (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) and has to be respected. Visually, it was an outstanding win over 1400m here two weeks ago, sitting back in the run before peeling wider on the turn and letting down with such purpose to put them away easily. The question I have is that the horses he beat weren’t that great I thought and the runner up was second up off a provincial win, third horse was fresh. Flattering perhaps, but on the flip side, this horse has upside too.

7 Green Ivy (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is still a maiden for Ken Keys but has been quite good in two runs back from a break. Really good resumption at Cranbourne against the track pattern before going to Pakenham where he was well liked by the market and loomed to win, looking the one but was bloused on the line in a close finish. Third up at the mile, he does look a chance despite not winning a race to date.

1 Halvorsen (Bet Now: $3.50) is a son of Magnus for the Robbie Griffiths stable who had good market support when resuming over 1000m here a fortnight ago and in an on pace dominated affair, I thought he closed off quite well late when fourth to Columbus Circle. Extra 100m and added fitness are big ticks and if he can sit closer in the run, hard to beat for sure.

I think up in trip would suit the Hayes/Dabernig trained 3 Enbihaar (Bet Now: $9.0) but remaining at 1100m is a query. Resumed over 1100m here three weeks ago and just did too much work out wide when midfield behind the flying Tassie filly Lady Pluck. Has good form from the Spring, including a 0.7L fourth to Ringerdingding during Cup Week. Any hint of that sort of run produced here and she’ll go close.

Giving respect to the Dan McCarthy trained 8 Ashtrain (Bet Now: $46.00). Was all over him when he resumed on his home track at Wangaratta and under a lovely steer from McDougall, he was quite arrogant in getting the job done, with plenty left in hand I suspect. Stable usually does well in these VOBIS races and I suspect there is upside left with this son of Oamaru Force.

Just has to run 1200m and 2 Prince Of Sussex (Bet Now: $2.60) should prove far too good for this lot. The hype on him was huge prior to the debut run at Pakenham where he was weak at the end. Was freshened up and ran in the VOBIS Gold Rush at Bendigo when back at 1000m and he was one of the more impressive winners of the meeting when winning with absolute ease. Extra 200m…just has to run that strongly and he’ll win.

11 Flostar (Bet Now: $9.50) is a well bred daughter of Zoustar for Clinton McDonald who debuted over 1100m here three weeks ago when on speed throughout and looked to travel well. Looked the winner for the most part but just ran out of condition late when narrowly beaten by Meuse. Should take improvement from that and 1200m on breeding should be fine.

Have to give 1 Hightail (Bet Now: $20.00) another chance. Team Snowden trains this gelding, who ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where it was just a total forgive. He was four and five wide throughout in a strongly run race and rightfully dropped out of the race after that early burn. His prior form does read quite well for this and at his best, he can threaten.

Going the way of 8 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $1.60) for Phillip Stokes. Started his SA Derby prep with a couple of outstanding wins before racing over the mile where he was beaten as an odds on pop at the hands of Grinzinger Star and most thought that was suspect form, but from that race, there have been three winners, including Grinzinger Star, so that form reads super and up to 2000m, he looks ideally placed.

1 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $3.50) is flying for Nick Ryan and is the clear threat to the three year old. Lovely steer from Currie saw him get the win over the mile here last time, beating up a handy field, including subsequent Easter Cup winner Plein Ciel. The rise to 2000m should be fine for him and is a proven weight carrier given he bolted up in the Traralgon Cup with 58kg.

3 Barry The Baptist (Bet Now: $19.00) has returned in super for Paul Jones and that was confirmed on Sunday with narrow but tough win to take out the Stawell Cup, beating a handy field, albeit much weaker than what he faces here, but the way he’s going, I think he’s earned a crack at this kind of race and four of his six career wins have come at 2000m, so he does save his best for the trip.

1 Widgee Turf (Bet Now: $1.70) puts these away doesn’t he? He’s the class animal of the field, clearly, who comes back to Victoria after contesting the Doncaster last start where he had no chance of winning or running well via the mid race anchor drop, plus he didn’t get much room when wanting to build momentum. Returns to a track he loves, and at the weights, he’s extremely hard to beat.

Up to the mile should suit the Macdonald/Gluyas trained 2 Waging War (Bet Now: $4.00), who was beaten narrowly first up in the Matrice by Snitzkraft before going to Bendigo several weeks ago where he was okay without being super behind the in form Antah. Think 1600m on this track will suit this five year old and she can win this for sure if she brings her best.

6 Eagle Ridge (Bet Now: $16.00) looks to be racing in okay form at the moment for the Michael Moroney stable. Has won two of his past three, the latest being last start on Terang Cup Day when scoring a narrow but strong win over 1400m there, beating Elite Drake, who he meets 2kg better off here. Two fails at the mile previously…doubt he wins, but one for multiples.

10 Miss Leonidas (Bet Now: $2.50) will do me in the get out. This Shaun Dwyer trained mare was a somewhat surprising winner of the Bel Esprit but full credit to her. She burned the candle at both ends, showing good early toe to lead then sustained it throughout the 1100m. Like her drawn wide, as Olly can take a little while to find out what’s going on underneath. Has the speed to overcome the draw and will be hard to run down if that eventuates.

3 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $3.30) is a former Darren Weir runner having his first run for the Danny O’Brien stable. This bloke was a real bulldog when racing under Weir, sitting on speed for the most part, pouring the pressure on and fighting hard at the end. He is generally better with a run or two under the belt, but has a touch of class and looked well enough in a recent Werribee jumpout.

Have to give 1 Ashlor (Bet Now: $3.80) another chance. Ran over this track/distance last time and just went way too hard on speed, rightfully dropping away late in a race won by Bandipur. Think he’s much better suited when ridden a touch more quiet and if that can eventuate here, plus bringing his best, he’s in the mix for sure. Just not sure what upside is left. He’s not a long shot, but they look the only three chances.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Widgee Turf

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Mr Quickie

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 8 Another Eclipse

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 11

Leg Two: 1, 8

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 3, 10

$50 Investment = 208.33% of the dividend if successful