27/8/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Memsie Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Caulfield on Saturday for Memsie Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Memsie Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Memsie Stakes

2 Fifth Position (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) can win again. Three weeks between runs for the Price/Kent camp since a win over this trip at Flemington where he was given a 12/10 by D Oliver, slicing his way through the field and drove hard late to get the win. If he can hold that, he’ll take beating.

5 Somerset Maugham (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t won in a little while but is knocking on the door to win one. He ran over the mile at Flemington a few weeks ago where he was back in the run from the wide gate but really liked the way he finished his race off behind a noted wet tracker, Lyrical Lad, finishing fourth. Back to 78 grade, he appeals big time.

11 Kissinger (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door. He ran three weeks back at Flemington where he was specked at odds and worked to the line quite well when a close up third to Fifth Position. He hasn’t won in a little while, but is working up to it I feel and can certainly take this out.

5 Lady Of Honour (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) gets another look. Resumed behind I Am Bene a fortnight back here where she just looked like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind the SA mare. I think Noonan will be more positive here and in a thin race, she’s the one on the up.

1 Bam’s On Fire (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is suited back to Mares grade. She ran over this trip three weeks ago at Flemington in an open handicap and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Turn On The Charm. She hasn’t really set the world on fire in some time, but this is quite a winnable race.

4 Zimowy (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a Team Keys trained mare that is racing really well at the moment. Three weeks between runs since a strong win at Flemington at this trip where she came with a well timed run under Billy Egan and in a driving go, she was able to finish best. Harder here, but she’s hard fit/in form and is genuine.

7 Pascero (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is the obvious. He ran two weeks ago here and he should have won. Just had no luck getting clear at any stage in the straight when seemingly having plenty to offer. He looked gone after the second up flop but last start indicates that he’s back on track.

11 El Rocko (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) has come back a much better horse as a gelding. Won the opening two runs in dominant fashion before racing here a fortnight back where he looked all over a winner but couldn’t quite get past Military Expert in a driving finish. Back to 78 grade, he’ll take beating.

15 I Could Do Better (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is a sneaky chance at a price. He would have loved the track to be in the heavy range, but I thought the first up run was solid enough. To the eye, it looked plain, but his late splits weren’t too bad, and he does get D Oliver aboard. Knockout chance with a drag into the race.

7 Romancer (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1400m. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Aurie’s Star at Flemington down the straight where the race shape was against him but he actually didn’t run too bad behind Sirius Suspect, a straight track specialist. Like him up in trip and could surprise.

4 Open Minded (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) has a fab 1400m record at Caulfield and is in here as a winning threat. Resumed in the Regal Roller a fortnight back where the market said it would be a prep run and that’s how it panned out behind Uncommon James. Much better set up here so he can bounce back.

10 Winning Partner (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is racing really well and has to be respected. Month between runs when racing over 1400m at Flemington a few weeks ago when wide for the trip but despite that, he kept finding the line, just missing out on the win when second to Turn On The Charm. Natural improvement off that, he appeals.

1400m back to 1200m I hate for 12 Aft Cabin (Bet Now: $2.45) but gee he looks a good horse. I don’t think he beat much at Sandown over 1400m last time but the manner in which he put them away after sitting wide throughout, it was the win of a horse who could easily measure up in a Caulfield Guineas IMO. This is an ordinary set up, but good draw and J Kah sticking leans me his way.

6 Jacquinot (Bet Now: $5.50) is a high quality colt for the Price/Kent camp that resumes. He had a strong Autumn prep, which ended with a very good sixth in the Golden Slipper on a very testing track. He’s had a couple of jumpouts to get ready and you can’t ignore any three year old this stable saddles up at the moment.

Just one jumpout leading in for 1 Daumier (Bet Now: $8.50) but he is the class runner of the field. The Blue Diamond winner resumes, having not raced since the Inglis Sires at Randwick when a very game fourth to Fireburn, where the bog and 1400m probably found him. IMO he’s a sprinter and should take beating fresh against these.

3 Generation (Bet Now: $4.00) is here to rock and roll first up. Quality sprinter for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes, having not raced since producing an end of prep run in the Doomben 10,000 behind Mazu. Game fourth in the William Reid at this track in the Autumn and he was one of the more impressive triallers from the Cranbourne session a couple of Mondays back, so I think he’ll only run well.

10 Star Patrol (Bet Now: $4.40) needs to win this to get his rating up if he wants to head towards better races. He hasn’t raced since the Creswick when on speed but like he has done previously, he did a bit wrong and threw away any chance of beating Passive Aggressive. Liked his recent trial behind Bella Nipotina, and we saw what she did last Saturday. Hard to beat over the short course here.

11 Little Stevie (Bet Now: $26.00) rises sharply in grade/depth, but the way she’s racing, she has earned a crack at some blacktype. Lovely ride from Lane saw her win against the Mares two weeks back here, finishing best in a driving go. She has the hard fitness under the belt and a good record at the track. First four threat.

I am a massive fan of 7 Passive Aggressive (Bet Now: $2.15) and I am confident she’ll remain unbeaten. Probabeel has dominated these Mares races at Caulfield in recent times. Now we need to find another top class mare, and Passive Aggressive is heading in that direction. Trial was to be expected, in fast time, she lands on speed, handles all conditions…good luck beating her.

Great to see 1 Graceful Girl (Bet Now: $12.00) back at the races as well as in Melbourne. Former WA mare who hasn’t raced since an electric win in the Group l Winterbottom where she gave them a start and a beating. Whether she’s wound up for this, not sure, but she does have class.

5 Hellfest (Bet Now: $31.00) is one for exotics. James Cummings trained mare that resumed two weeks back here and surged hard late over the 1100m, just missing out on the win when beaten a lip by Little Stevie. Fitter and up to 1200m, stable love to target these races, so she commands some level of respect.

I don’t think you can go wrong backing 12 Tofane (Bet Now: $6.50) each way. She’s the John Farnham of Australian racing. Been retired a couple of times but she continues to come back and race so well. Her effort in the All Aged was one of the runs of the Sydney Carnival when wide no cover and only bloused late by Cascadian. Three jumpouts, inside gate, fab record at the track/distance…she’ll only run well.

11 Illation… (Bet Now: $6.50) how good is he? First up at start four in a Group l, he could be the next big thing. He did a super job in three runs during the Autumn, smashing the clock at start two and looking every bit a Group l horse. Couple of strong jumpouts to get ready for the return and J Kah booked tells me there is clear intent.

1 I’m Thunderstruck (Bet Now: $8.00) is a high quality animal for the Price/Kent camp that resumes. He finished runner up in the All Star Mile and Doncaster before backing up in the Queen Elizabeth and ran very well behind Think It Over. Two jumpouts have been encouraging and M Zahra is one of the best Group l riders in the country.

If you can trust up the first up performance, bet up with confidence on 7 Lunar Flare (Bet Now: $9.00). She was one of the rank outsiders when resuming in the Winter Championship Final but gee she was an eye catcher from the back, slicing her way through for a close up fourth. Fitter, up in trip, good form…all points to her running well.

9 Jimmy The Bear (Bet Now: $4.40) is the obvious given he’s the one that is hard fit/in form and this looks a good race for him whereas most of these have eyes on bigger fish. He was a strong winner here last time, albeit it was a gift, but he’s a very genuine horse and with the hard fitness, he’s a leading contender.

14 Royal Mile (Bet Now: $26.00) is suited up in trip. He resumed in the Spring Stakes where I am not sure the shifty, wet track, wasn’t to his liking, but he stuck on and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Calypso Reign. The rise in trip is a big tick and firmer footing is an even bigger tick.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 7 Passive Aggressive

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 12 Aft Cabin

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 Tofane

 

Leg One: 3, 4, 10, 11

Leg Two: 7

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 11, 12

Leg Four: 7, 9, 10, 14

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