28/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Carlyon Stakes day

A solid nine race program has been assembled for Moonee Valley on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Carlyon Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Carlyon Stakes

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2 Still Be Friends (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) looks the most progressive of this lot and I think he is the way to go for Danny O’Brien. Comes through a red hot form race two back at Benalla behind Reciprocation before getting his maiden kill out of the way at the same track, bolting up in impressive fashion. Heading in the right direction and don’t see the mile being an issue.

5 Seb Song (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction. Has finished runner up in both career outings, the latest coming on Donald Cup Day where he had a great battle with Kohli, but couldn’t quite get past that horse and had to settle for a narrow second. He’ll make a nice horse with time…is he ready for 1600m? Only time will tell.

1 Ronniejay (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance back in depth/grade. Started this prep with a couple of sharp wins at the provincials before going to Flemington on Stakes Day where he found the class a bit rich behind Shelby Cobra. Interesting he steps up to the mile but the overall depth here isn’t strong.

13 The Globe (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) for me. James Cummings trained filly that resumes after debuting over 900m at Flemington on September 23 when near the speed and fighting on well when third to General Beau. Won a Flemington jumpout in good order but she was the standout in trackwork here on Tuesday. Looked brilliant and think she’s one of the better bets on the card.

Big watch here on 3 Brazen Boy (Bet Now: $2.45 TOP ODDS), debuting for Phillip Stokes. Market took a set against him prior to the Merson Cooper but it mattered not as he played up and was a late scratching. Visually, the trial win was very sharp, but he was on the Parks track, where leading and on the rail is gold. Keen to see how he goes in a weaker race compared to what he would have faced at Sandown.

Gate one can be a negative at the Valley but I hope it is a positive with 4 Direct (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS), who is on debut for Lloyd Kennewell. Looked solid enough in a Sandown jumpout, but I was taken by a piece of work here produced here on Tuesday morning when seemingly full of running, under a good hold and seemed to handle the track well. Winning threat.

14 Mostly Sunny (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) gets all the ticks from a map perspective and with C Williams booked, she’ll do me. Was bursting to win another race and it finally came on Oaks Day at Pakenham under a lovely steer from Dylan Dunn. This isn’t a strong 64 and from the inside gate, can see her settling in the first four and proving hard to beat.

2 Okotoks (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) has a real liking for the Valley. He’s flying at the moment. Could easily make a case to say he should have won here last Friday night. Just didn’t get the breaks to go his way and ended up being a luckless fourth to the in form New Choice. Gets in very well after the claim and will be strong late.

Can make a little case for 13 Loe (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) at odds. Nick Smart trained gelding that comes through the Stuchbree Stamp race from November 13 here. He lumped the big weight with Jamie Kah steering and the four year old found the line okay without really threatening behind the Moody galloper. Not sure I could back him to win, but one for multiples.

9 November Dreaming (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. She was far too good for them first up on Geelong Cup Day before racing on Oaks Day at Flemington where she was way too keen on speed and was one of the first beaten in a disappointing effort. She’s better than that. Hopefully with a sit, she’ll be more effective.

Very interesting that John Sadler scratched from a much easier race at Sandown on Wednesday with 12 Duns ‘N’ Roses (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS), instead resuming here. I was keen on her running well on Wednesday because her recent jumpout, she looked full of running and was a real eye catcher. Think she’s come back well…watch what the market does.

7 Ethical Solution (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is another that has been placed to win a race finally this prep. Has contested blacktype events in both runs back from a spell and she’s not that good of a horse, but in saying that, both runs she has been far from disgraced. This is more her level and a win here certainly wouldn’t surprise.

Back to 1200m and back a bit in depth looks perfect for the Team McEvoy three year old 4 Deep Speed (Bet Now: $3.20). Stretched him out to 1400m on Stakes Day at Flemington but he just didn’t run out the seven furlongs, but was still good in defeat behind Shelby Cobra. Dominant winner start prior at this track/distance and if he repeats that effort, he wins this.

8 Ocean Beyond (Bet Now: $5.50) does look a talented animal for Daniel Bowman and really, as a whole, this isn’t a Stakes class field, so the step up from maiden company isn’t as high as what it normally would be. The debut maiden win at Geelong was very good and the clock backed up the eye. Think he can measure up these.

Back to 1200m I find interesting with the Hayes/Dabernig trained three year old 3 Pioneer River (Bet Now: $12.00). He has raced over 1400m at his past couple, bolting up two back on Cranbourne Cup Day before going to Flemington when far from disgraced behind Shelby Cobra. That form reads well for a race like this.

13 All Banter (Bet Now: $3.80) is hard to beat here for the Jolly camp. Resumed over 1000m on the Parks track two weeks ago where Toeroek had her on speed throughout putting the pressure on 400m out and in a driving go, she was able to finish best despite being first up. You’d like to think there is room for improvement and she maps perfect.

Good test here for 11 Lady Brook (Bet Now: $6.00) but she is very progressive and has the right racing pattern for the Valley. Resumed during the Snake Gully Carnival at Gundagai where she looked a good thing on paper and won accordingly, justifying the $1.50 quote. Proven city performer and was first up there, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

4 Queen Annabel (Bet Now: $34.00) doesn’t have the worst record at 1200m and she’s a mare who is generally around the mark so for multiples, could easily include her. She ran down the straight at Flemington last time out and worked home well without threatening behind Leiter. Needs things to fall into place but if they do, she can win without surprising.

Looks a perfect race for 8 One More Try (Bet Now: $4.50) for the Matt Cumani team. Loved the way she warmed to the task in the Matriarch three weeks ago, finishing off with purpose from the back when third to Affair To Remember, who went within a lip of winning the Ballarat Cup. Form reads well and this mare just finds the ideal race to break through.

5 Andrea Mantegna (Bet Now: $11.00) is an absolute beauty for David Jolly and I think he can measure up to these. One thing that has been learned since he has been sent to SA is that when he finds the front, he’s near unbeatable. When he has led, he has won, so hope they are positive here and can find the front, and run along at a good clip, giving them something to chase.

7 Lamborghini (Bet Now: $41.00) is suited up to 2040m for the Patrick Payne team. Ran in the Eclipse at Sandown two weeks ago where he was very tardy away, spotting them a decent start, and was never really a factor behind So Si Bon. He’s getting fitter and getting to a more ideal trip…is he prepping up towards the Tassie Carnival? Have to wait and see, but think he can run an improved race here.

2 Coruscate (Bet Now: $4.50) for me. Been up a little while for James Cummings but is holding his form really well at the moment. He was excellent with the big weight in the Doveton when a closing second to Shamino. Has to contend with another big weight, but hard to knock the way he is going at the moment. Hard to beat.

11 Seemingly Discreet (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare who has earned a crack at some blacktype after an impressive win under the lights at Cranbourne. Was one of the first off the bit but what impressed me was how strong she was through the line in winning and really drew clear late. She’s up to this I feel and stable is in form.

4 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $21.00) is a hard one to trust, but he finds a race here where the potential set up can see him return to winning form. Ran over the 955m here last time out in a strong 84 and closed off nicely when second to Sartorial Splendor. Fast run 1000m I do like for him and his best would see him as a knockout chance.

6 Overkill (Bet Now: $3.60) in the get out. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that resumed on Bendigo Cup Day and tried hard. Thought he had his chance though when a close up third to Hi Starnger, who ran well last Saturday. The break between runs is interesting but he was very good in a piece of work here on Tuesday morning and has enormous upside.

3 Music Addition (Bet Now: $13.00) is racing very well at the moment for the Gelagotis team. Ran in the sprint race on Kyneton Cup Day when on speed and trying hard, but was no match late for the very much in form Murillo. Hasn’t got as much upside compared to most here, but he’s hard fit, racing well and will run a usual honest race.

12 Moor Wanted (Bet Now: $31.00) is a knockout chance here for Peter Chow. He drops a bit in grade after contesting the China Bowl on Ararat Cup Day when on speed and fighting on pretty well when second to Titan Blinders. Has a good record at the track and stable is starting to find some form now. Think he’s a winning threat for sure.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 13 The Globe

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 One More Try

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 14 Mostly Sunny

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 11, 13

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 7, 11

Leg Four: 6

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