28/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Festival Stakes day

The road towards the Villiers begins this Saturday at Rosehill with the Festival Stakes (1500m) the feature on a nine race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Festival Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Festival Stakes

Starlight Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Starlight Stakes

ATC Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the ATC Cup

Back on firmer footing with Blinkers FT, giving 5 Hunnam (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) another chance. Where there is smoke, there is fire…and there was a proper bushfire surrounding this guy prior to his debut in the Golden Gift three weeks ago. Just forget he went around. He was legless on the bog track. Gate makes it tricky, but he could be pretty good if the market push from the debut is right.

The map horse is 6 Sliders (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS), who did a good job when winning on debut in the Max Lees Classic at Newcastle. Probably had enough 150m out but she found when required and was too good. Smashed the clock in doing so and from the inside gate, she gets the perfect run and every chance to see out the 1100m.

12 Hide Your Heart (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Sebring for Bjorn Baker that debuts. She was due to debut in the Golden Gift but with the wet track was scratched and kept on ice. Had another trial to get ready for this and looked in good order there. Has a good gate to use and stable is having a good run at the moment.

2 Almania (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS) looks a talented animal for Kris Lees who will be winning races in Australia I’m sure. Made his Australian debut on Stakes Day at Flemington where he got a fair way back in the run off a good speed but presented to win when Bowman asked for the effort. Surged hard to just miss out on the win when beaten a lip by Barade. Fitter, up to 2400m, very likeable.

7 Relucent (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is on the quick back up for Chris Waller after racing at Kembla last Saturday where he got the win first past the post but lost the race in the Stewards room when squeezing in on Accountability. Doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but is racing well and think 2400m will be okay for him.

3 Rider In The Snow (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) looks big odds here. Stablemate of Almania that made his Australian debut on Golden Eagle Day here and he struggled to pick his feet up on the testing track behind Archanna. Best form from the UK was on dry ground, which is what he gets, and noteworthy that stable finds J Mac to steer.

Noble Boy won this exact Highway two years ago before winning the Country Championships. Could we see something similar with 5 Another One? (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS) I think the answer is yes. He reminds me of Noble Boy in the sense that he is very raw and new to the caper, but the change up speed is just electric and he just stands out above country grade. He’s very exciting and clearly looks the one to beat.

Terry Robinson has taken over from Matty Dunn as the master of the Highway races and he has 2 Art Cadeau (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) running here off the back of a strong win in a Highway a few weeks back. Came with a well timed run under Tommy Berry and was much too good. He was only second up there, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

1 Cock Match (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is a capable galloper on his day. Danny Williams trained gelding that resumed in a Rosehill Highway a few weeks back and just forget he went around. He was legless on the bottomless track and couldn’t go a yard. Then came back to 1180m at Gundagai and was a real eye catcher from the back when fourth. He can win this without surprising.

Think this is good placement by Archie Alexander with 6 Write Your Name (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). He resumed in the China Bowl at Ararat and once Titan Blinders got control in front, it was race over. Write Your Name did a good job to take off the ground like he did. That horse won last Saturday at Ballarat, so the form has held up, he maps perfect and has upside.

I like 8 Darleb (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) as a horse. Kris Lees trained four year old that was second up at Newcastle where Nash dragged him back to near last in the run before slicing his way through the field and looming to burst through but the run cut out and the last 100m was more or less a barrier trial. He’s going super and can win this.

I’m wary of 1 Segalas (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) for Godolphin. She is four weeks between runs since recording an impressive win over 1200m here on testing ground, something she does love, and something she won’t get here, but she’s so genuine and reliable and the tick over Hawkesbury trial was pleasing. Think she can measure up to these.

12 Lady Banff (Bet Now: $4.80) is a quality filly for Matty Dunn that resumes, with eyes towards the Magic Millions I dare say. Whether she heads to the Guineas or perhaps the Fillies/Mares race I’m not sure because I don’t think she is a 1400m horse. Looks a more short course girl, but she is sharp and thought her recent trial here was very encouraging.

The key threat is the James Cummings trained mare 7 Plaquette (Bet Now: $2.70). She was four weeks between runs when racing down the Flemington straight on Stakes Day and not sure she was 100% happy racing down the straight. Still, thought she had her chance to win when third to Leiter. She’ll improve off that and fitter, I like her alot.

4 Jay Jay D’Ar (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Chris Waller trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since September 19 at Randwick when chasing strongly from off the speed when third to Athiri, well held but far from disgraced. Nice soft trial to get ready for her resumption and she’s a mare who can pull out a decent run fresh.

2 Mantastic (Bet Now: $8.00) hasn’t won in a long time but I reckon he’s going super for the Waller team. Close up fourth in the Rosehill Cup two back at this track/distance before coming back to the mile in the Ladies Day Cup when good late behind stablemate Black On Gold. How often do you see Waller and his runners run well, come back in trip for a prep run, then back up in trip and win. Think this guy can continue that formula.

Maher/Eustace runners at 2000m+ are going at about 26% so have to respect 10 Bonvicini (Bet Now: $4.40). Thought there was merit in her Matriarch effort on Stakes Day when close up behind Affair To Remember in a good Mares race. This isn’t a strong race as a whole and the stable rarely get it wrong when they switch stables from interstate.

4 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $9.50) is somewhat a Queensland citizen given his love affair with the Gold Coast and Magic Millions Day. He looks right on target to run well in the Stayers race yet again after a somewhat surprising win in the Ladies Day Cup. I say surprising given he was first up over an unsuitable trip, but that aside, he was impressive, and you can only assume there is improvement to come.

15 Through The Cracks (Bet Now: $5.50) is a quality animal and confident he can measure up to these. Big win from him at Newcastle two weeks ago. One of the first off the bit but as he has done throughout his career, he just keeps finding and he really surged hard late to get up and win. 1500m is idea and he looks a Stakes class horse. Can confirm that here.

On first look, I was really disappointed with the run of 2 Ranier (Bet Now: $7.50) in The Hunter behind Sweet Deal, but considering the winner has run 33/thereabouts for the last 600m, those from behind, including this guy, had no chance. Gets to 1500m and has a liking for Rosehill. He can bounce back here.

1 Gaulois (Bet Now: $15.00) can run an improved race at odds. He comes through The Hunter where Parr rode aggressively from the gate to near the speed and I think that just left him a touch flat for the straight, but he’s not horse who can run 33 last 600m and win. Better set up this time around and that was his first run in a month, so is open to improvement.

I think each way, 13 Inanup (Bet Now: $6.50) is a great bet. Jarrod Austin trained gelding that resumed five weeks ago at Randwick on very testing ground and loomed to win but his condition gave out late when fourth to Hilo in a race where the form since has been quite good. Tick over trial was solid, tumbles in weight and he just maps to get a perfect run off the speed, being very strong late.

14 Varda (Bet Now: $4.00) is a James Cummings trained mare that I was quite keen on when she resumed on Oaks Day but I think the firm track just didn’t help her cause and she didn’t quick like she usually can when fourth to Ancestry. That form is solid for a race like this and she’s in the right stable to bounce back.

2 Easy Eddie (Bet Now: $23.00) is a most interesting runner. Joe Pride trained sprinter who hasn’t raced in a tick over 12 months, his last run seeing him finish down the track at Sandown on Zipping Classic Day 2019. Over a year off but has looked good in a couple of 800m trials. He’s a quality sprinter when right and his best is clearly good enough.

11 Great News (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the safe option in the last. She’s a real line chaser this girl. She just wants to win and that was evident when winning at Newcastle two weeks ago. She kept chasing and eventually wore down an in form Enchanted Heart to score. Gets run of the race from the gate and 1500m should be fine.

I’m wary of 14 Miss Einstein (Bet Now: $10.00). Resumed in the Great News race at Newcastle and was very good in defeat I thought when third to the Kim Waugh mare. Just got slightly held up at a vital stage. Not sure she would have won, but should have finished much closer. Was a real tease last prep but she looks in for a good campaign off the resumption and is a winning threat here.

Not sure 3 New Arrangement (Bet Now: $10.00) is a knockout chance for Chris Waller. Not sure what he has in mind for this guy but he looks in for a good prep. Market really liked him first up over 1350m at Doomben, which is against the norm for this stable given they usually have them soft in condition. He didn’t win, but closed off strongly, so he can win provided he doesn’t get too far back.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Another One

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Write Your Name

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 13 Inanup

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 10, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 15

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 13, 14

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 11, 14

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful