28/4/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Redoute’s Choice Stakes day

Caulfield is where Melbourne racing takes place this Saturday for Redoute’s Choice Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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6 Diamond Bow (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Sebring filly for the Wendy Kelly team who was backed late when resuming at the Sandown midweeks on April 11 where she just got too far back in the run but I thought her lat 150m was pretty good late behind Island Daze. Quickly up to the mile first time is a concern, but stable is going well and she has upside.

2 Snogging (Bet Now: $2.70) could go to the SA Oaks next Saturday but she’d have to be winning this to warrant a start. Ran in the Laelia three weeks back and was a bit disappointing I thought behind Blue Morpho after getting a relatively good run in transit. Drops miles in depth here and gets Olly on from a good draw.

4 Kaluna (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Richard Laming trained filly with good upside and she should have no trouble running well here. Impressive maiden win a couple of Friday nights back at Cranbourne when leading throughout under Jess Payne, controlling things in front and kicking on the bend. Should get a god time of it on speed and prove hard to run down.

9 Jocasta (Bet Now: $21.00) for me in a dart board job. Team Corstens have this mare going really well at the moment. Good win three back at Kerang before a couple of solid efforts, firstly over 1100m at Ballarat before stepping up to 1200m at Sandown last Wednesday and finishing off hard. Back to 1200m against her own sex ideal and she’ll be flashing late.

3 Mamzelle Tess (Bet Now: $7.00) is a daughter of O’Lonhro who is racing in career best form at the moment for Team Corstens. She took got a long way back in the Working From Home race but worked home with purpose late to run fourth, beaten just under two lengths. If she can sit closer in the run, she’ll take some beating.

I think the key to 1 Hear The Chant (Bet Now: $8.50) is getting her produced fresh because that is when she races best. Four weeks between runs for the Hayes/Dabernig team since racing down the straight at Flemington where Mallyon got the tactics horribly wrong behind Quilista. Williams on, just needs luck from the draw.

8 My Paisann (Bet Now: $5.50) gets the nod for me. Lisa Enright trains this gelding, who did an enormous job two back at Bendigo before going to Pakenham last Thursday night where Melham gave him every chance but just had no answers for the finale produced by Balcazar. Caulfield mile suits and gets really good weight relief.

1 Fidaawy (Bet Now: $3.70) is a big, big watch. Shadwell horse for the Hayes/Dabernig team that makes his Australian debut. Showed really good promise when racing in the UK over a staying trip, so the mile is short of his best, but the quality is definitely there. If there is a market push for him, I want to be on.

If 7 Portman produced (Bet Now: $8.50) his best, he’d just about win this. He just hasn’t produced that at all this time in, so the jury is well and truly out on how well he is going, but he certainly has enough quality to bounce backa nd go close to beating these. Has run well here before and hopefully the freshen up does him the world of good.

Well found, but 13 Pleasant (Bet Now: $2.60) does look the one to beat. Busuttin/Young trains this gelding, who trialled up enormous at Cranbourne prior to resuming at Pakenham where he led all the way under Ben Allen and absolutely brained them, winning by six lengths in fast overall time. Claim for Zac Spain a big tick, has upside, turn of foot…happy to be with him.

3 Chapel Road (Bet Now: $21.00) is going very well at the moment for Mick Price. On the quick back up after racing at Ballarat on Sunday where he was up near the speed throughout and fought on quite well in defeat behind He’s The Sheriff. Not the greatest of records in town but same can be said for most engaged.

I think for multiples, you can definitely include 12 Keep Courting (Bet Now: $18.00).There is a question mark on others but with this girl, despite the class rise, gee she is racing well. Came with a well timed run under Ben Allen to get the win last time out at Sandown over 1000m when flashing hard late to grab the win. Should get a soft run with cover and be strong late.

3 William Thomas (Bet Now: $3.70) clearly on top. John Price has a really nice three year old on his hands here. Backed off the map and won first up at Sandown before racing at this track/distance a fortnight back where I thought Nolen gave him every chance to win but he just wanted to lay in and half turn it up late when second to Reilmartini. If he brings his best racing manners, I think he wins.

2 Reilmartini (Bet Now: $5.50) is a promising three year old for Darren Weir who is building up a good little record. He got the win over William Thomas a fortnight back but I think he had the better grounding and in the end wanted it more. Not sure he can hold the margin from the tricky draw, but at least he’ll be out of trouble.

Interesting to see what 1 Kentucky Breeze (Bet Now: $20.00) can do. Showed great promise in two runs during the Spring but hasn’t gone on with it in two runs this time in, the latest being an eight behind Scarecrow at Flemington in early march. Been given a little freshen up and on his best form, he’s certainly capable of beating these.

1 Sunset Watch (Bet Now: $2.00) is an Akeed Mofeed colt for Team Hawkes who is four weeks between runs since scoring a dominant win at Caulfield where Dwayne Dunn controlled things nicely in front and turned it into a 250m dash. The win prior over 1200m at Ballarat was brilliant so a hard six furlongs no issue for this bloke.

2 Dalswinton (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained colt who had specking at odds when debuting in the Gold Rush at Bendigo where he got a mile back off them but you had to like the way he found the line late in the piece behind Thrillster, who of course franked the form last Saturday. Up to 1200m looks ideal and stable flying with their youngsters.

I think 6 Let Me Sleep On It (Bet Now: $13.00) can run well here. Manhattan Rain filly for Waterbott who did plenty of work in the run last time out in the Dequetteville at Morphettville and gave cheek but just tired late when fifth to Fundamentalist. Expecting her to be right up on speed this time around and proving hard to catch.

Confident that 7 Island Daze (Bet Now: $8.50) can measure up and run well. Loved her debut win at Kyneton when beating off subsequent winner Uzayli before going to Sandown where she was the first horse off the bit but was last one standing as she kept finding under Nolen to score a narrow, gritty but super win. Looks above average and I think she can go close.

If 2 Leather’n’Lace (Bet Now: $4.20) is anywhere near right fitness wise, she probably wins this race. Only had the one run in the Autumn, which came here in the Kevin Hayes where she was enormous in defeat behind Booker, and that is Group l form. Repeats that and she wins…just unsure about her fitness levels and the gate is a touch sticky.

12 Grey Shadow (Bet Now: $10.00) ran a narrow second to Island Daze in the race mentioned above at Sandown. That pair had an epic battle over the final 250m with the Mick Kent mare proving too good. Grey Shadow was first up and condition just gave way. I think back to 1100m and with the soft gate, she can go close.

12 Notio (Bet Now: $5.50) is flying this time in for Team Hawkes. Had been racing really well in town without winning so the stable sent him to Ballarat for a kill and despite doing a bit wrong in the straight, he got the kill and won impressively. 1400m looks ideal for him, he’s in form, hard fit…plenty to like about him against this lot.

1 Runson (Bet Now: $5.00) is the hard fit/in form galloper. He gave them a galloping lesson over this track/distance a few weeks weeks back where Riordan had him on speed and once asked for the big effort, he showed a lovely turn of foot and put them away quite quickly. Harder here, but hard to knock the way he is going about it.

2 Leodoro (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Mick Kent trained gelding who is racing in career best form at the moment. He ran over 1400m at Bendigo a fortnight back where he got back and wide in the run but finished off strongly though clearly no match for the impressive display produced by Land Of Plenty. Good record at the track and will be strong late.

18 No Commitment (Bet Now: $6.00) is just a bulldog who loves a fight and I think that is the scenario he’ll get here. He got it four weeks back over 1800m when outgunning Magic Consol in a great go, and that form was franked a fortnight back. Has won at 2000m, and despite the break between runs, he’s one of the hardest to beat.

I think with luck in running, 10 Top of The Range (Bet Now: $4.20) is the one to beat. To my eye he was a bit too close to the speed last time out over the 1700m here when outside the leader and that probably left him a sitting shot for Magic Consol in the end. Much better with a bunny to chase, so hopefully that eventuates.

13 Noumea (Bet Now: $7.50) ran third to Magic Consol in the race mentioned above and I thought his effort was very good. Didn’t do much first up behind Runson but was much better up in trip. Should be better suited at 2000m, has upside, draws a nice gate and he can sit much closer in the run. Live threat for sure.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 William Thomas

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 13 Pleasant

VALUE: Race Two Number 9 Jocasta

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6

Leg Two: 2, 3, 7, 12

Leg Three: 1, 2, 12, 16

Leg Four: 2, 10, 11, 13, 18

$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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